Liverpool v Barnsley: Back both teams to net and keep an eye on Chiesa and Keillor-Dunn | OneFootball

English FA Cup

Get Mike's Liverpool v Barnsley preview and tips

Liverpool host Barnsley in the final FA Cup third round tie on Monday night, and Mike Norman believes that while waiting for the line-ups to be known is essential for some bets, backing both teams to score looks a big player...

Liverpool v BarnsleyMonday, 19:45Live on TNT Sports

FA Cup third round has lost its appeal

Those of a certain age will remember the FA Cup third round being one of the best days of football of the entire year. Thirty-two ties, about 28 or 29 of them being played at 3pm on a Saturday, full strength teams, giant-killing acts, Grandstand, and of course, Des Lynan and his vidiprinter.

Those were the FA Cup's glory years for me, and while winning the competition remains as prestigious as it always has done, the early rounds have become a drawn-out borefest, even when you get shocks on the scale of National League North side Macclesfield beating Premier League outfit and FA Cup holders Crystal Palace.

Would anyone be surprised if Liverpool's starting XI on Monday night consists of players wearing shirts with the numbers 47, 68 and 73 on the back of them? Not at all. More to the point, would anyone be surprised if struggling League One outfit Barnsley went to Anfield and beat the Reds? I dare say not many.

And the above is, in a nutshell, the problem we have when it comes to the FA Cup third round. Very few of the big clubs take it seriously anymore.  Even before Saturday's nine 3pm kick-offs - yes, just nine of a possible 32! - we saw Premier League sides Nottm Forest and Crystal Palace make multiple changes to their starting XIs and get dumped out of the FA Cup to lower league opposition.

Both sides were trailing at the interval, brought a trio of their regular starters on, fought back, but ultimately still lost. Why not just start your best players, especially when you don't play again for another week or so?

So if you haven't read between the lines already, what I'm saying for those of you wanting to have a bet on Liverpool v Barnsley on Monday night is that my best advice is to wait for the starting line-ups to be known, especially if you're doing player bets and bet builders.

Liverpool long odds-on but we can easily pass

Sadly, doing a betting preview of Monday night's tie well in advance of kick-off means I don't have the luxury of knowing how strong Liverpool will line up, or indeed Barnsley for that matter. Remember, the Tykes are in a League One relegation scrap, they could easily file this game under "we've already got the glamour tie and the TV money, let's not risk our first team players!"

I don't think they will, but you just never know.

Which brings us nicely on to Liverpool and those shirt numbers I referred to earlier. With the likes of Mo Salah, Alexander Isak, Hugo Ekitike, Conor Bradley and Wataru Endo ruled out, in addition to the inevitable rotation that Arne Slot will go with, then we could easily see Calvin Ramsey (no. 47) at right-back, and Kieran Morrison (68) and Rio Ngumoha (73) on the flanks, plus a few other youngsters or fringe players either starting of filling the substitutes bench.

So while I think it's perfectly understandable that Liverpool are long odds-on at 1/9 to win the match in normal time, I'd have to be crazy to even think of backing them at that price. Of course, Liverpool could line up strong and Barnsley much-changed, and then 1/9 becomes 1/14, but we don't need to take any risks at all with long odds-on prices.

So I don't think anyone will be surprised to read me saying that the Match Odds market is one I'm avoiding, not just at this stage, but even when I know the starting XIs. For the record, Barnsley can be backed at 14/1 to win in normal time while the Draw price is available at 17/2.

Below you can see a chart showing the percentage chance for each outcome (90 minutes + stoppage time) using the Betfair Exchange Match Odds market.

Remember, this tie has to be settled on the night. In the To Qualify market, Liverpool are 1/25 and Barnsley are 10/1.

Both teams netting looks a solid selection

Having said all of the above, and suggested that you wait for the team news before pressing the confirm button on your bets, I think there are a few wagers that we can put up in advance of knowing the starting XIs.

I think we can be relatively confident that Liverpool will field a weakened team, especially given that they only played on Thursday night - a hard fought draw at Arsenal - and then play again on Saturday in the far more important Premier League, followed a few days later by a trip to France in the Champions League.

That means the aforementioned Ramsey, Morrison and Ngumoha are likely to start, in addition to squad players such as Andy Robertson, Curtis Jones and Federico Chiesa, and the last time Liverpool lined-up with a similar team was when they hosted Crystal Palace at Anfield in the EFL Cup. They conceded three goals that night.

So I'm definitely going to wager that Barnsley get on the scoresheet, but given that I don't think they'll keep Liverpool at bay I think Both Team to Score at 4/5 is the bet to have.

Conor Hourihane's men scored on the road in round two, they score three at Oakwell in round one, and although their league form is very in and out, they did score five against pre-season title favourites Luton not so long ago. And no doubt they'll be regularly reminded that the last Barnsley played Liverpool at Anfield it was an FA Cup tie that they won 2-1.

I'd suggest that in terms of goals, Over 2.5 and Over 3.5 are big players also, but at odds of 2/7 and 8/11 respectively, you don't need me to tell you that, though they are likey to be popular selections in bet builders. For me though, I'll stick with the both teams to score bet as my one and only wager before I know the starting XIs.

Chiesa likely to be a popular Bet Builder pick

Apologies for sounding like a broken record but when it comes to player picks then you simply have to wait for the starting XIs to be announced. Having said that, I'd expect Federico Chiesa to be in the Liverpool team and if so then he would definitely be my number one choice when it comes to shots.

Since the beginning of December the Italian has played just 92 minutes of Premier League action, and in that time he registered just one shot at goal, but prior to that his shot numbers are very impressive.

From August to November Chiesa played 211 minutes of league football and registered 15 shots at goal (three being on target). That's a very healthy average of one shot every 14 minutes. So if you consider that Barnsley will be the weakest opponents he's faced this season, and that he could quite easily play as a striker, then backing him to have at least four, five or even six shots could be an option in a bet builder.

Those options are currently priced at 4/7 (4 or more shots), 7/5 (5) and 11/4 (6).

For Barnsley, Davis Keillor-Dunn is undoubtedly their main goalscoring threat. He has 14 goals to his name this season (11 in the league), but as you can see from his League One stats below, almost 50% (25) of his total shots (51) have been on target.

Powered by

At the time of writing, the Shots on Target markets aren't priced up for the majority of the Barnsley players, but when you consider that some of Liverpool's main men are priced at around the 6/4 mark to have two or more shots on target then you could get a very healthy price about Keillor-Dunn doing the same.

Alternatively, if you fancy the Tykes to get on the scoresheet - as I do - then you could do a lot worse than back Keillor-Dunn in the Anytime Scorer market at 16/5. If he plays of course!  Remember to wait for those all important starting line-ups.

Now read more Football tips and previews here.

Recommended bets

Back (2pts) Both Teams to Score @ 4/5

Mike's 2025/26 Profit/Loss:

Staked: 50ptsReturned: 61.68ptsP/L: +11.68pts

*Based on 2pts main (first listed) bet, 1pt all other bets