Liverpool v Manchester City: Opta say back 19/1 Bet Builder on Sunday | OneFootball

English Premier League

Back the Opta Bet Builder for Liverpool v Man City at 19/1

Opta provide the key stats in their preview for Liverpool v Manchester City in the Premier League on Sunday before recommending a Bet Builder that you can back at 19/1...

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Manchester City's season seems to be unravelling a little bit more with each fixture that they play, and there is no let up for them this Sunday.

A trip to Anfield to face leaders Liverpool is arguably the most difficult task they could ask for this weekend, but that is what they are faced with. In terms of the title race, it is objectively the most significant game since, well, last week actually.

Let's dive in and find some value.

Liverpool v Man City - Home win is the way to go

So, we all know about Manchester City's poor form by now, although it is worth drawing attention to the fact that they keep finding a new nadir.

When writing the most recent of these previews last week, City had lost four on the spin prior to playing Tottenham at home. City have since been thumped 4-0 by Spurs and blown a three-goal lead in 15 minutes against Feyenoord in midweek.

Larger margins of defeat and in-game capitulations suggest that the issues faced by Pep Guardiola's side are getting worse, to the point where players look like they are being affected mentally.

Each of the goals Manchester City conceded in the Champions League on Tuesday came from defensive errors, with two Josko Gvardiol misjudgements and one from goalkeeper Ederson.

In the league, meanwhile, City have conceded four goals as a direct consequence of individual errors - only three teams have let in more. It is also worth pointing out that the volume of errors leading to goals is more than or equal to that of any of the last four respective seasons.

It is important to apply some perspective to the situation, and City are likely to improve when any number of the injured key players are fit enough to start games. Rodri, John Stones, Mateo Kovacic and Ruben Dias are all among those that have been missing recently.

But there is currently an end-of-days narrative that surrounds the champions, reflected in them being knocked off top spot in the Opta Power Rankings for the first time in 624 days.

The team currently in first place? Liverpool.

Arne Slot's side edged ahead of Inter Milan in the Champions League standings following their 2-0 victory over Real Madrid at Anfield on Wednesday, which maintained their 100% record in Europe this season.

Liverpool have also usurped Manchester City as the likeliest Premier League title winner in the Opta supercomputer predictions. Following this week's action, Liverpool are given a 74.8% chance of winning the Premier League for the second time, with Manchester City on just 12.6%.

With a potential 11-point lead in the offing should Liverpool win on Sunday, it is worth noting that such a gap at the top has only ever been overturned three times in Premier League history.

The supercomputer also gives Liverpool the edge for this particular match, helped by the fact City have won on just one of their last 21 visits to Anfield in Premier League play. That win at St. Mary's was Liverpool's third on the bounce in the league, while following the win over Real Madrid on Wednesday, the Reds have now won 14 and drawn one of their last 15 matches in all competitions.

The only blemish within that sequence was a creditable 2-2 draw away to Arsenal, who have lost just one of their last 20 at the Emirates Stadium.

The upshot of this is that Liverpool should be considered major players, as is suggested by their outright price of 4/5. Given that price and their favouring in all of the above metrics, it is a slight surprise to find them at 11/10 to win on Sunday. Unsurprisingly, we're siding with a home victory here.

Expect goals for both teams

For all of Manchester City's recent struggles, they are still creating chances and have registered an xG of at least 1.56 in each of their six winless matches. They have also only failed to score on one occasion during that run.

Among other things, Pep Guardiola's side are being let down by poor finishing. City have registered the highest xG in the Premier League (24.44) but rank eighth for xG underperformance (-2.55).

While it seems silly to suggest players like Erling Haaland have underperformed, having scored 12 league goals in 12 games, there has been a noticeable downturn in end product with the top scorer netting just two goals in seven league matches. That is despite an average of 5.14 shots per 90 minutes during that fallow period.

But as we know with Haaland, who did grab a brace in the Champions League this week, and many of City's other big hitters, they have a reputation for a reason. The champions have had more shots (235) and shots on target (79) than any other team and can be expected to score here.

They will be facing the Premier League's best defence, which has conceded just eight goals, but dig a little deeper and they have vulnerabilities. Caomhin Kelleher has kept just one clean sheet in the five league matches since Alisson picked up an injury. They also come into this on the back of conceding twice against a Southampton side who have scored just nine goals - fewer than any other team.

As a result of the above, it makes sense that BTTS is as short as 4/9. Both teams to score twice would have been a winner in Liverpool's most recent league game and is of interest at 14/5, while over 3.5 goals also represents value at 5/4.

Salah and Van Dijk to strike against Man City

There are few players in world football who carry an air of inevitability like Mohamed Salah does right now.

The Egyptian has scored 10 goals and registered six assists in 12 league games for Liverpool this season. He currently trails Haaland by two in the Premier League scoring standings, though Salah is the most productive player in the division when considering combined goals and assists - four ahead of Bukayo Saka, Cole Palmer and Haaland.

While he hit the post with a penalty against Real Madrid, he netted a match-winning brace against Southampton last weekend. Even at an odds-on price, Salah looks a good shout in the score or assist market at 10/11.

Salah picked up his first booking of the season for removing his shirt while celebrating the second of his goals against Southampton, which put Liverpool back in front. Given the potential importance of a goal in this match, don't be surprised to see him do it again if he finds the back of the net. At 6/1, it is a market to keep an eye on.

Alternatively, in the goalscorer market Virgil van Dijk is a longer-priced pick that makes sense at 17/2 given City's defensive difficulties. Van Dijk has scored two goals in all competitions this season, with those coming against AC Milan in September and Arsenal in October.

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