Man City v Liverpool and Hotelling’s Law – zigging when everyone zags

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The Independent

·7 November 2025

Man City v Liverpool and Hotelling’s Law – zigging when everyone zags

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Both Arne Slot and Pep Guardiola have made choices that deviate from broader Premier League trends – as well as their own recent history – and those decisions could prove crucial to Sunday’s game and the title race.

Over the past few days of training – including the victory over Real Madrid – Arne Slot’s main consideration has been quickly shoring up space: the sudden interventions that shut out openings. The Liverpool coaching staff are all too aware that an Erling Haaland in this kind of form can suddenly get away from you, so Slot may have to continue his reversion to last season’s more robust midfield.

That’s despite his desire to evolve Liverpool into something different. If they don’t play Alexis Mac Allister, Ryan Gravenberch and Dominik Szoboszlai, however, it places a lot of responsibility on Virgil van Dijk to stop Haaland. That duel may well develop anyway, given they are two rare players in the modern game who can genuinely be considered indispensable.

Against that, Pep Guardiola is mulling over a potential reversion – or even regression – of his own. The Manchester City manager has spoken about how he won’t commit to the Premier League’s recent trend for set pieces, but it’s impossible not to wonder whether he will lean into long balls given Liverpool’s obvious vulnerability.

Sure, Slot might have corrected course by returning to last season’s midfield, but successive wins have come in games where – as he surprisingly admitted himself – they haven’t faced that kind of aerial bombardment. Haaland may even be perfect for that.

The different choices these two recent English champions have to make, amid a will to shake things up, may be all the more important as both seek to keep pace with Arsenal. There is even a decent possibility that this weekend could see Mikel Arteta’s side pull further away.

Such considerations also come as debate rises over whether this is another drab Premier League season. It is not just that the title race may become another procession, but also that so many teams are now relying on set pieces and aerial football.

This newsletter is not another discussion of that, but rather something different – in a very direct way. Through their trust in individuals, both Liverpool and City have become truly distinctive Premier League teams: footballing exceptions that prove Hotelling’s Law. And they’ve perhaps never been more needed.