Man City v Man Utd: Opta say back 60/1 Bet Builder on Sunday | OneFootball

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It is hard to recall a Manchester derby in which both clubs have respectively been at such low ebbs.

Manchester City's end-of-days narrative pervades even after ending their losing run, while Ruben Amorim's rebuild at Manchester United is some way off being realised.

This all adds up to what could be one of the most exciting and important derbies in a generation. So with that in mind, let's have a look at how the data can inform some betting angles.

Betting against Man City makes sense

Let's start with the hosts and, spoiler alert, Manchester City fans might want to look away now because it is a grim picture. What started out as a rough patch for Pep Guardiola's side has descended into a tailspin that is threatening to undermine their entire season.

Following their 2-0 defeat to Juventus in the Champions League on Wednesday, City have now lost seven of their last 10 matches in all competitions, with just one win and two draws. For context, that is as many defeats as they had suffered in their previous 105 matches combined.

The result also means that Guardiola has gone three Champions League games without a win for the first time in his managerial career, while it is the first time since 2014-15 since City have endured such a run.

If it wasn't already abundantly clear, we are in uncharted waters when it comes to Guardiola's managerial career and City's performance under him.

The run has seen City drop to fourth in the Premier League table, eight points behind leaders Liverpool having played a game more. The Opta Supercomputer now gives them just a 3.8% chance of retaining the title - compared to Liverpool's 83.3% - having been given an 83% chance in pre-season. They are also 22nd in the Champions League table, just three places and one point away from dropping out of the play-off positions.

There is the caveat that seven of the matches in this 10-match run have been away from home, with their one victory against Nottingham Forest earlier in the month coming at the Etihad Stadium. But bear in mind that the other two home games were the 3-3 draw against Feyenoord in which City were leading 3-0 with 16 minutes to go, and the 4-0 thumping by Tottenham, both in late November.

So, with Manchester City odds-on favourites to win on Sunday at 4/7, there are plenty of angles to exploit some value. But before we do, we have to also give the caveat that United are currently going through strife of their own.

Back-to-back league defeats against Arsenal and Nottingham Forest have exposed the frailties in United's squad and shown that - in the short term at least - Ruben Amorim has been dealt a tricky hand, with them 13th in the table.

The Portuguese coach does not yet know his best team either, having averaged four changes to the starting XI per Premier League match in charge. The average number for all PL clubs this term is 2.1, while Erik ten Hag averaged two.

What that means is that there is a layer of unpredictability to United at the moment, which has been borne out in Amorim's opening sequence of results (W3-D1-L2) and has the potential to be a problem from a betting perspective.

But even taking that into account, the price dictates that United are worth siding with. They are 11/8 double chance, although it makes more sense to back them on the +1 handicap at 7/5. The straight win, meanwhile, is chunky enough to be of interest at 4/1.

An interesting subplot to this match is the fact that it is Amorim's second meeting with City this season, having beaten them 4-1 in the Champions League while at Sporting CP. While Sunday's game will be played under different circumstances, that should give confidence that United could get something.

They have avoided defeat against City (inside 90 minutes) in three of their last six meetings, including in back-to-back matches away from Old Trafford. With their rivals currently performing as badly as they ever have under Guardiola, there is undoubted juice in United's price.

More defensive misery for City

City's shambolic defending has been one of the standouts from their poor run of form, having conceded at least two goals in nine of their last 10 matches in all competitions. Since the start of November, they have conceded 21 goals - more than any other team in Europe's top five leagues.

The usually dependable Ederson has been in and out of the team and currently has the second-worst save percentage (62.22%) of any Premier League goalkeeper to have played 10 games or more. Judging on recent performance, we can expect a City defence, that will be missing the suspended Rico Lewis, to struggle.

United have only failed to score in one of their last six matches and they have netted two or more goals in four of those fixtures. City, meanwhile, have conceded at least twice in seven of their last 11 league games - as many times as they had in their previous 62 in the competition - and they have only kept one clean sheet in the last eight Manchester derby meetings. With all that considered, the 13/8 for over 1.5 Manchester United goals feels generous.

At the other end, despite his mistake against Viktoria Plzen in the Europa League, the performances of Andre Onana have generally been strong. He ranks ninth for save percentage among Premier League goalkeepers to have played 10 games or more, while he has the best goals prevented figure (4.8) in the division.

Onana's shot stopping, along with the relative attacking impotence of City, who have failed to score in three of their last six, means there is also an argument to be made for backing United on the -1 handicap at 9/1.

But United have been hamstrung by individual errors this season, with six having led directly to goals in the league - the equal third-most. They have also conceded the third-most goals from set pieces (seven), which makes it hard to get behind an away clean sheet at 7/1. As a result, BTTS is understandably short at 40/85.

Set-pieces could prove profitable in Man City v Man Utd

When it comes to goalscorers, Erling Haaland is someone worth avoiding given that he is as short as 4/6. While the Norwegian is normally a dependable goalscorer and his record of 18 goals in 22 matches in all competitions is still impressive, his current form does not vindicate his price.

Haaland has scored just four goals in his last nine appearances for City, while he has failed to score two thirds of the big chances that have fallen his way this season.

Instead, it makes sense to look at Josko Gvardiol from a City perspective at 15/2. Only Haaland has had more shots on target than the seven the Croatian has managed in the league, while he has already scored three goals and will be a menace from set pieces.

For United, 39% of their goals conceded have come from corners this season, and they have let in a massive total of 15 such goals when looking at 2024 as a whole.

Coming the other way, it would be logical to assume that United's main threat will continue to come from the flanks. With Lewis suspended and Kyle Walker struggling for form, United's wide men could be in for a profitable afternoon.

With that in mind, Amad Diallo is worth considering in the goal or assist market at 2/1, having already contributed six assists and one goal in the league, while he impressed yet again in a more advanced role against Plzen.