Manchester United v Brighton: Back "United Way" to boost shot count | OneFootball

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Manchester United v BrightonSunday 11 January, 16:30Live on TNT Sports 2

Different coach, same old problems

Amidst all the schmaltzy talk about Manchester United's caretaker boss Darren Fletcher asking for club scion Sir Alex Ferguson's blessing before taking the job, and the references to "the United way," Fletcher still oversaw the dropping of two points on Wednesday against second-bottom Burnley.

There were some positives. Bruno Fernandes returned from injury to deliver a sharp hour which included an excellent pass to set up United's first goal. Benjamin Sesko scored a 10-minute brace, and thrived on better service. Patrick Dorgu, freed from the shackles of playing wing-back, had a productive game on the left flank as a winger, and he set up the second Sesko goal. Youngster Shea Lacey caught the eye as a sub, rattling the crossbar late on with a swerving drive.

However, United coughed up two preventable goals, and they still lack intensity and grit. Whether it's a back three or a back four, United are all too often too easy to play against and too easy to score against. They have leaked 32 Premier League goals, giving them the worst defensive record outside the bottom six.

Kobbie Mainoo could replace Casemiro in midfield, with Fernandes set to once again start as a ten. Altay Bayindir may replace Senne Lammens in goal, while Harry Maguire was on the bench in midweek and could get the nod here. Youngster Ayden Heaven scored an early own goal at Turf Moor, and could get a rest.

Brighton can turn a good season into a great one

With the Premier League incredibly congested outside the top three, there is a genuine opportunity for the less heralded names in the league to take a swing at European qualification. Brentford are fifth, Fulham are only two points behind them, while Sunderland are just five points off a Champions League slot.

Brighton are six points off the top four, and just three adrift of the top six. Manager Fabian Hürzeler admits consistency has eluded the Seagulls during his reign, and that lapses in concentration often cost his side dearly, but the young German coach has the staunch backing of new sporting director Jason Ayto.

Wednesday's draw at title-chasing Manchester City underlined what Brighton are capable of, and they have beaten City, Chelsea and Newcastle this season. However, Brighton have won just one of their last eight competitive games, with four draws in that sequence. Finding a way to turn those draws into wins is the missing piece.

Midfielder Carlos Baleba (a target of Manchester United) is still away at AFCON with Cameroon, while Mats Wieffer, Solly March, Adam Webster and Stefanos Tzimas are all still out.

United to rain down shots

Given that United have won just one of their last nine games and that they were held in midweek by the second-worst team in the Premier League, I can't be going anywhere near the price of 1.95 for the home win. Yes, Brighton lost 4-2 at United in the league, but their only defeats since the start of November have been against Aston Villa, Arsenal and Liverpool, and their battling draw at Manchester City shows how competitive they can be.

The prices on offer for BTTS and Over 2.5 Goals are pretty skinny, so we'll have to get creative.

In Darren Fletcher's first game in charge, Manchester United had 30 goal attempts against Burnley. It has to be borne in mind that Burnley are the most accommodating team in the Premier League when it comes to allowing opposition shots, but it was still a remarkable number and an indicator that Fletcher's romanticism about "the United way" will see him play front-foot, attacking football.

United average a league-high 16.52 shots per 90 in the Premier League, while Brighton give up an average of more than 12 shots per game. In the league this season they allowed 21 shots at Manchester City, 24 at Arsenal and 18 at Liverpool, and I don't think it's unreasonable to suggest that United can rack up 20 goal attempts here at 2/1 on the Sportsbook. Even under Amorim United have been chalking up goal attempts and xG this term, and I expect them to put Brighton under pressure from the off.

I'll also back the resurgent Benjamin Sesko to have two or more shots on target at 13/10. Sesko had a staggering seven efforts on target against Burnley on Wednesday, the highest individual figure by any player in the Premier League this season. He had four shots on target in the recent home draw with Wolves, and he has had a total of 19 goal attempts across his last four starts. If he gets the kind of service he got in the game at Burnley, the Slovenian can easily hit the target a couple of times.