Mark O'Haire's Premier League Notebook: Back Bournemouth against weary Magpies | OneFootball

English Premier League

Mark O'Haire is backing Bournemouth against Newcastle

Mark O'Haire's latest Notebook pinpoints three punting angles and one best to follow across MD5 of the Premier League...

Palace to pray on West Ham's set-piece woes

West Ham fans are planning a protest against the club's deeply unpopular board before Saturday afternoon's home game against Crystal Palace. On the pitch, the situation is barely any better with head coach Graham Potter clinging onto his job and hoping to engineer a first home victory for the Hammers since February.

The Irons have conceded 14 goals across their five outings in all competitions, losing four of those fixtures. In their current guise, the capital club are heading for a relegation scrap with the side lacking many of the basic elements required of a solid top-flight team - that includes, shipping a whopping six goals from set pieces already.

Three centre-backs have already scored against Potter's posse so we simply must chuck a few darts at Palace's defensive dangers to score here. The Eagles have three key threats from dead-ball situations, so it's worth splitting small stakes on Maxence Lacroix 16/1, Marc Guehi 16/1 and Chris Richards 16/1 to get on the scoresheet.

Lacroix only scored once last season but was often Palace's greatest set-piece threat, whilst Guehi has already gabbed goals for the Eagles and England this term, with Richards bagging in the EFL Cup in midweek.

Man City take rotten road record to Arsenal

Mikel Arteta was heavily criticised after Arsenal's damaging recent defeat at Liverpool with pundits putting the boot into the Gunners' safety-first approach at Anfield. That judgement felt harsh considering Arsenal had the better of the match and were only undone by a stunning free-kick late on - a draw would have been a fair result.

That was Arsenal's first reverse in 22 fixtures with Big Six rivals and only the side's fourth defeat in 15 away encounters with top-six finishers. Avoiding defeat and picking up precious points on your travels against title rivals should be commended and often Arteta has managed to keep the Gunners in the matches that matter most.

By contrast, Manchester City have failed to win 15 of their last 22 tussles with top-six teams, posting W3-D5-L7 over the last three campaigns despite winning the title in two of those three seasons. In 2024/25, the Citizens won only once at the top-half clubs - against Chelsea on the opening day - and suffered six defeats in those nine away days (W1-D2-L6).

Despite a considerable sample spanning three years of football, Pep Guardiola and his Man City side seem to have escaped criticism for their results on the road at top-tier opponents and that record makes Sunday's visitors particularly unappealing at Emirates Stadium. Arsenal 1.97 are understandably trading as odds-on favourites.

Cherries to conquer jaded Newcastle

Newcastle were roared on by the typically noisy and passionate Toon Army in Thursday night's blockbuster Champions League clash against Barcelona at St James' Park. Eddie Howe's outfit gave as good as they got for almost an hour but the Catalans' superiority told the longer the game went on and the Magpies ultimately fell short.

Less than 72 hours later, Newcastle face a devilishly difficult trip to in-form Bournemouth. The Magpies, likely jaded by their emotional and physical midweek efforts, should be opposed at the prices considering they've tabled a solitary success on their travels against teams finishing in 13th or higher since the start of last season.

Bournemouth rebuilt their entire backline over the summer yet Andoni Iraola has overseen a strong start to 2025/26. The Cherries are already ranked third on Expected Points (xP) and reduced Brighton to only six shots last weekend. Expect the home side's aggressive approach to pay dividends with Bournemouth 0.0 at 1.83 standing-out.

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Back Bournemouth 0.0 in Bournemouth v Newcastle @ 1.83