Mbappe, Neymar and what Newcastle United players would really be sold for IF they left | OneFootball

A lot of conversations at the minute about Newcastle United players leaving St James’ Park and if they did, what transfer fees would be paid for them.

When I say ‘conversations’, of course, what I really mean is endless mischief and speculation in the media.

As well as large helpings of wishful thinking amongst rival fanbases, as they dream of seeing the likes of Alexander Isak, Anthony Gordon, Bruno Guimaraes, Tino Livramento and Sandro Tonali playing for their clubs next season.

The reaction of Newcastle United fans is to say that if any of these rival clubs did try and sign one of the best NUFC players, the valuations would be way beyond what they could/would pay.

What sparked the idea for me writing this, were some of the comments from Brighton and Forest fans, responding to the reported interest from Newcastle United in signing their star players, namely Elanga and Pedro.

Brighton and Forest fans talking about how Newcastle United fans want to believe their club can buy these players at a certain price, yet believe in far higher valuations of their own NUFC stars.

It is amusing AND true, all fanbases of all clubs do this. Automatically want to believe the highest valuations for their current players, yet when their clubs are looking to buy new players with the intention of playing alongside the current stars, thinking that they should be able to be bought at far lower prices than the valuations those fans put on their own existing players.

What are the World record transfer fees ever paid?

£190m – Neymar going to PSG from Barcelona back in 2017

£154m – Kylian Mbappe going to PSG from Monaco back in 2018

£142m – Philippe Coutinho going to Barcelona from Liverpool back in 2018

It is bizarre, isn’t it?

When Neymar moved for £190m eight years ago, we all thought what will happen in the future? £250m? £300m? £500m?

Yet it hasn’t happened, indeed, quite the opposite.

Those three biggest ever transfer fees paid, almost half a billion on that trio of players, all three transfers happened in a 12 month period and then the next seven years…

The amounts of money in football have gone ever higher, the amounts of money spent in total on players has gone ever higher. However, these very very most expensive transfers for a single player, they just aren’t happening.

Part of the reason is almost certainly due to what has happened with these three most expensive ever signings.

Neymar was at PSG for six years but only made 112 appearances, with a lot of injury issues. PSG so so lucky to recoup as much as £80m only because a Saudi club (Al-Hilal) were willing (able…) to pay such a daft fee AND even dafter reported £130m wages a year(!!!) for an obviously knackered 31 year old. Neymar only managed a few games before Al-Hilal accepted they had to cut their losses and came to a ‘mutual’ agreement to end his contract. Neymar heading back to play in Brazil, having banked riches beyond his wildest dreams.

Kylian Mbappe gave far more on the pitch than Neymar managed for PSG but reality is that having paid £154m for him in 2018 and you can only guess at how much in wages, Mbappe did the dirty on them, ran his contract down and left for nothing. Real Madrid paying no transfer fee and naturally Mbappe getting far far more in wages thanks to doing this to PSG.

As for Coutinho, for their £142m (plus wages!), Barcelona got exactly 76 appearances and 17 goals across six years they had him registered as their player. Eventually somehow getting Aston Villa to pay £17m and take on his wages, once they signed him permanently after a loan spell, in return for Villa paying £17m and giving him a four year contract, Coutinho has given them 22 appearances and one goal. Whilst remaining a Villa player still, they have managed to get him out on loan to clubs in Qatar and Brazil the last couple of seasons, to dilute to at least some extent Villa’s sizeable money down the drain for very minimal return.

All of these three biggest ever transfer fees only happened after the players concerned made it clear they were determined to leave Barcelona, Monaco and Liverpool respectively.

Which brings me back to Newcastle United…

No star players are desperate to leave Newcastle United.

Indeed, not a single player has wanted to leave St James’ Park since Mike Ashley and Steve Bruce departed. Certainly not anyway to the point whereby they have tried to force the issue. If Eddie Howe has wanted them to stay then the Newcastle United players have been happy to do so these past four years.

How to keep them happy

I think the big things are for your key players to have a manager they enjoy working with and who they believe can progress their game, that the manager and club are ambitious, that credible wages are paid, a large passionate fanbase supporting them, a group of players who have bonded and are a team that is more than its individual parts. As well as just simply happy with their life, both at work (football club!) and in their life outside of that. general day to day life where they live.

In the case of Newcastle United at this moment in time, I think clearly those boxes are all ticked for all of our key players.

Top class manager in Eddie Howe – TICK

Manager and club ambitious – TICK

Credible wages paid – TICK (Certain other clubs may be willing to pay more but just so long as you feel your club is looking after you properly and fairly)

A large passionate fanbase – TICK

A group of players who have bonded and are a team that is more than its individual parts – TICK

Just simply happy with their life, both at work (Newcastle United!) and in their life outside of that. general day to day life where they live on Tyneside – TICK

As well as listing all those tick boxes above, it is also worth pointing out the small matter of not a single key Newcastle United player in not a single interview, has given even the remotest indication that they have any interest in leaving this summer.

Which makes it all the more hilarious when desperate attention seekers in the media and elsewhere, are claiming/wanting to believe that Newcastle United stars are frantically queuing to get out of St James’ Park.

It is like they (the media/attention seekers) want to pretend that Newcastle United didn’t win a trophy three months ago and secured a second Champions League in three seasons only a month ago.

It really kills them all, rival fans, unscrupulous journalists and pundits, to know that in reality the best Newcastle United players are happy at NUFC and aren’t going to be leaving, not willingly anyway.

What these Newcastle United players would go for if they did leave

In football things can change, quickly.

Who knows…Mike Ashley could buy Newcastle United back, Eddie Howe could leave for Sunderland, Steve Bruce could return and complete the task he started of relegating United.

Sorry for giving you nightmares but basically, things can change and maybe in the future, one or more Newcastle United stars could decide they want to leave.

Keeping unhappy players at a club, players who are desperate to leave and have another club (clubs) they want to join instead, is a recipe for disaster.

So if that happened, what kind of figures would Newcastle United’s best players really go for?

Imagine for a minute that the moment was now when these players wanted to leave, if these Newcastle United players insisted on leaving and the club accepted that had to be the end result.

Alexander Isak?

As I detailed above, I don’t see in the foreseeable future anything getting close to the £190m that was paid for Neymar eight years ago.

Rather than paying out enormous figures on one-offs, even the most financially powerful clubs now seem to go for more a spreading the risk policy. So rather than paying those Neymar, Mbappe, Coutinho £140m+ prices, we tend to see a lot of £50m-£100m type deals. Indeed, the prices paid for the players on the bench in a match can often be in the same ballpark as the starting eleven. So much more emphasis on now being able to bring on four or five players of similar quality to the starting team, which of course was why the richest most powerful clubs were desperate to be allowed nine options on the bench. To give them an even greater advantage on those clubs with less money, less able to afford quality throughout their squads.

I think that Alexander Isak and Erling Haaland would each create a new Premier League buying record if bought by another PL club, more than the Florian Wirtz £116m (£100m plus £16m future add-ons) that Liverpool have committed to.

However, I don’t think getting anything close to the £190m Neymar.

When people talk of £150m+ for Alexander Isak, I think that is what he is worth to Newcastle United. However, the reality is that if he was unhappy and desperate to leave at a point in the future, same with Erling Haaland at Man City, then something like £130m would be what he (they) would go for. I think maybe you could get that up somewhere close to a £150m figure but only on the basis of future potential add-ons, if success happened on the pitch and certain trophies won.

It is all hypothetical with Alexander Isak and our other players because 100 per cent I don’t see any of our star players wanting to leave in the foreseeable but I reckon at this point in time if they did leave…

Sandro Tonali – More than £100m. It has become a real thing of central midfielders generating some of the very highest transfer fees paid by Premier League clubs and for sure I would be putting Tonali at the very least in the same bracket as Rice, Fernandez and Caicedo who all had transfer fees of more than £100m.

Bruno Guimaraes – He is invaluable to us as our captain, our heartbeat at Newcastle United, but he will turn 28 in November and I think his realistic transfer fee at this moment in time, that another club would pay, would be £80m-£90m.

Tino Livarmento and Lewis Hall – So young and yet so good, with their careers just starting really and set to get better and better, each of them are worth £80m+ of anybody’s money.

Anthony Gordon – Similar (£85m+) again. I know it is fashionable amongst some Newcastle fans to get on his back at any opportunity and to want to write him off to devalue him, but reality is that is a real talent, he is very quick and he is English, which also tends to add value. I think he will be back to his best next season after injury and indifferent form (and Harvey Barnes!) affected the closing stages of last season.