Moldova vs Italy Betting Preview – Automatic Qualification Hangs by a Thread | OneFootball

Qualification for next summer’s FIFA World Cup is on the line for Italy as they take on Moldova in a must-win qualifier. Gennaro Gattuso’s men have no margin for error at the Stadionul Zimbru in Chisinau if they’re to stay within striking distance of Group I leaders Norway.

After missing out on back-to-back World Cup finals, failure is not an option for the four-time world champions. However, an embarrassing 3-0 defeat to Norway in their opening qualifying match could make all the difference in a fiercely contested battle for top spot in Group I.

Despite winning all five qualifiers in the aftermath of the Oslo fiasco, Italy’s hopes of securing automatic qualification are hanging by a thread. Indeed, the Azzurri trail the Norwegians by three points heading into the penultimate round of fixtures. With Italy in a precarious position, it’s the perfect moment to write my essay breaking down their chances of topping their group.

Clear-Cut Favorites

Anything other than a multi-goal margin victory in Chisinau would be a disappointment for Italy. The Azzurri claimed an unenviable 2-0 win in the reverse fixture in June, allowing former manager Luciano Spalletti to waltz off in style. However, Italy’s performance in that match lacked conviction.

The Italians have notably improved under Gattuso, who has seemingly unlocked the team’s full scoring potential. For context, the Euro 2020 winners have bagged at least three goals in four qualifying outings under the iconic Milan midfielder, highlighting the potential for another free-scoring display.

Adding to Italy’s confidence, they’ve won all six historical meetings with Moldova, scoring 17 goals while conceding just two in return. Yet, it’s worth noting that their last visit to the ex-Soviet country dates back to 2004, when the legendary Alessandro Del Piero secured a narrow 1-0 victory for the European heavyweights.

Feel-Good Factor

Thursday’s showdown has all the makings of a ‘must-win’ game for Italy for multiple reasons. Apart from the obvious need to keep pace with Norway, the Azzurri must maintain a feel-good factor ahead of a top-table six-pointer against the Scandinavian side in the Group I finale.

With a place in the playoffs already in the bag, there’s no risk of an early elimination. However, the Italians can still harbor dim hopes of usurping Stale Solbakken’s team and locking down an automatic qualification berth. Furthermore, the visitors head into proceedings amid a purple patch.

Italy’s run of five consecutive wins in the ongoing qualifying cycle stands out as their best winning streak since emerging victorious in 15 matches in a row between November 2020 and July 2021.  With that in mind, Gattuso’s men will be eager to extend their momentum and enter the final round of qualifiers brimming with confidence.

Prediction

Expecting Italy to claim all three points is a no-brainer. It’s not a question of if, but of how convincingly the Azzurri will triumph in Chisinau. A multi-goal margin looks like a virtual certainty, and backing the Italians to win with a -2 handicap appears a safe bet given their superior form and historical dominance over Moldova.