Most likely Italy opponents in World Cup playoff revealed | OneFootball

Sweden and Moldova are reported to be the most likely opponents for Italy in the World Cup playoffs after the Azzurri beat Estonia 3-1 on Saturday.

Italy will likely need to go through the playoffs to qualify for the 2026 World Cup. The Azzurri sit second in Group I, six points below leaders Norway with a game in hand.

The big issue for Gennaro Gattuso’s men, however, is the goal difference as Norway boast a +26 against the Azzurri’s +7, a gap that is very hard, if not impossible, to fill with just three games remaining.

BERGAMO, ITALY – SEPTEMBER 05: Players of Italy during the National Anthem during the FIFA World Cup 2026 qualifier match between Italy and Estonia at Stadio di Bergamo on September 05, 2025 in Bergamo, Italy. (Photo by Mattia Ozbot/Getty Images)

Even Gattuso said last night the Azzurri must beat Israel on Tuesday next week to start preparing for the playoffs in the best possible way. But who athe possible opponents for the Azzuri in the next phase?

As reported by Gianluca Di Marzio, currently the most likely opponents for the Azzurri in the World Cup playoffs are Sweden and Moldova (19%).

They are followed by North Macedonia (17%), Northern Ireland (13%), Romania (13%), San Marino (8%), Wales (7%) and Germany (3%).

2026 World Cup playoff format explained

BERGAMO, ITALY – SEPTEMBER 05: Gennaro Gattuso, Head Coach of Italy during the National anthems prior to the FIFA World Cup 2026 qualifier match between Italy and Estonia at Stadio di Bergamo on September 05, 2025 in Bergamo, Italy. (Photo by Mattia Ozbot/Getty Images)

The 12 group runners-up will participate in the playoffs, along with the four best-ranked group winners of the 2024/25 UEFA Nations League that did not finish their European Qualifiers group stage in first or second place.

The 16 teams are drawn into four playoff paths, with four teams in each. Playoff matches will be played in single-leg semifinals, followed by single-leg finals within the same international window in March 2026.

Teams will be divided into four pots: the four teams with the better FIFA ranking go in Pot 1. Pot 2 and Pot 3 follow the same criteria, while Pot 4 will include the Nations League teams.

The semifinal will be played at the home of the better-placed team in the FIFA Ranking, while a draw will determine the final’s venue.