New Year's Day Premier League Tips: Jimmy The Punt's best bets including 96/1 bet builder | OneFootball

English Premier League Tips

Jimmy The Punt tips a big bet builder on New Year's Day

Jimmy The Punt has four bets for the Premier League games on New Year's Day via the Befair Sportsbook and Betfair Exchange including a 96/1 bet builder...

Crystal Palace v Fulham

Thursday, 17:30Live on Sky Sports

Crystal Palace's form is bad, they are winless in five, but a little more context is required. Their squad is stretched, a point Oliver Glasner is making as often as he can. Ismaila Sarr is away at AFCON and there's several key injuries to contend with.

Across the five game sample sample, the Eagles lost 3-0 to Manchester City, 4-1 against Leeds, drew 2-2 with KuPS in the Europa Conference League, took Arsenal to penalties in the Carabao Cup and lost 1-0 at home to Tottenham in their last outing.

Glasner's side won the expected goals battle (xG) against City and Arsenal and conceded twice from an expected goals against tally of 0.26 against KuPS. Put simply, they aren't taking their chances in front of goal and have been unfortunate defensively.

Given the host issues, I'd swerve them in the 1x2 at the prices available but I'm not sure Fulham can be trusted either.

Liverpool v Leeds

Thursday, 17:30Live on Sky Sports

This is a set piece mismatch at Anfield. Leeds top the charts for actual goals (11) and expected goals (9.23) and opponents Liverpool have conceded the joint-most goals in the division from dead balls (12).

Wolves netted from a corner against Arne Slot's men in their last outing and Leeds grabbed an equaliser from a corner in the reverse at the start of December - one of five set piece goals across their last five fixtures.

Naturally, Leeds' centre-backs are worth a look in the anytime goalscorer market.

With Joe Rodon injured and Pascal Struijk a touch short at 10/1, Ethan Ampadu looks the standout price at 22/1 to score anytime. He's not actually been playing as a centre-back but he's a threat from set pieces and this is the industry best price.

Since these sides last met, Ampadu has had six shots in three games and scored once. At 6/4, I also think covering him to have +1 shots is worth a punt.

Greedy as ever, I also have an old angle that is worth revisiting at Anfield.

At 96/1, you can combine Leeds to have the most shots on target, Liverpool to receive the most cards and Liverpool to commit the most fouls in each half.

I last touted it on the Betfair Podcast in Sunderland's 1-1 at Anfield at the start of December at 148/1 and it fell short because of a tie in the cards department.

Heading into that clash with the Black Cats, across Liverpool's previous last eight games in the Premier League, they had fewer shots on target than their opponents in five games, committed more fouls than their opponents on five occasions and picked up the most cards in four games.

In total, across Liverpool's last 13 games, this bet has landed against Nottingham Forest and went within a whisker against Manchester City and the Black Cats.

Using a bit of muggy punter logic, at the prices available, it only needs to land once before the end of the season.

Brentford v Tottenham

Thursday, 20:00Live on Sky Sports

Goals were touted for Tottenham's trip to Selhurst Park and but for some slack finishing from Palace and pesky VAR rightfully ruling out two Richarlison goals, it probably would have cruised in.

With over 2.5 goals priced at 2.00 with the Exchange, I think it is worth taking again.

Spurs' game on Sunday was only their second away trip of nine in the league to see fewer than three goals. In total, two thirds of their top flight games have seen this bet click.

Brentford's home games have averaged 3.33 goals a game with six of nine going over 2.5 goals.

Sunderland v Manchester City

Thursday, 20:00Live on Sky Sports

Sunderland are unbeaten at home in the Premier League this season (W5 D4) which includes visits from Arsenal (2-2) and Aston Villa (1-1).

The Black Cats have drawn their last two games with Brighton and Leeds. They were particularly poor in the second-half of the latter and were ultimately fortunate to share the spoils.

The slight drop off in performance level might have something to do with AFCON as Sunderland have lost six players to international call ups.

That said, the underlying metrics suggest Sunderland have been fortunate all campaign. For context, their expected points total is the same as Wolves (18).

Despite their strong home form, the recent results, call ups and underlying data is enough to put me off getting them onside against Manchester City.

Besides, City are on the charge. They have won their last eight on the spin, 12 of their last 14 (L2) and have a settled starting XI. At 1.46, they are a touch short on New Year's Day though.

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