Newcastle United could overtake Liverpool next season | OneFootball

Yes, you read it right, Newcastle United could overtake Liverpool next season.

No, I am not still drunk still drunk six days after Wembley.

Well, not that drunk that I don’t know what I am saying…

Plus, this isn’t just a reflex reaction to that brilliant performance and victory from Newcastle United against Liverpool.

As in, I am not thinking that because NUFC finally won against Liverpool, that it will always be what happens.

Let me explain then why Newcastle United COULD overtake Liverpool in the 2025/26 season.

Note that I use the world COULD, not Newcastle United WILL overtake Liverpool next season.

I haven’t become so entitled based simply on United winning one trophy…

Anyway, here are a few thoughts as to why I am declaring this possibility.

Liverpool are good, they have been very good at times this season, but they are not brilliant.

They have been brilliantly consistent and they have a strong squad (which means they can take five midfield and attacking players off and replace them with similar quality), but as for brilliant world class players…?

Salah, VVD and TAA

Mo Salah, Virgil van Dijk and Trent Alexander-Arnold are probably the three who most people would most point to, in terms of Liverpool having World class players. Liverpool also very lucky with availability of these very best players. Salah and VVD have started every single Premier League match and until now, TAA had only been unavailable for one PL match.

As things stand though, Liverpool are going to lose all of their three best players.

At the end of June 2025, all three will be out of contract and be able to walk away and bank ridiculous amounts of money as free agents.

The worst kept secret is surely that TAA is going to Real Madrid, I think it is pretty disgraceful the way he has set about this, deliberately depriving Liverpool of a transfer fee so that he can fill his pockets with even more cash.

It is great though for Newcastle United and other clubs, Liverpool losing their three best players AND not getting a penny for them.

Liverpool would need to offer huge cash to keep Salah and VVD and lengthy contracts, can’t see it happening.

Even if they did manage to keep them, the fact is that when next season kicks off, Salah will be 33 and VVD 34.

Liverpool haven’t suddenly got better

As I said earlier, Liverpool have been good to very good for much of this season but for me they haven’t been brilliant.

Slot has clearly got them playing for him but reality is that they have exactly the same first eleven and first choice replacements as they did the previous season.

In 2023/24 these very same Liverpool players finished nine points behind Man City and seven behind Arsenal. Now the scousers are 22 points ahead of Man City and 12 ahead of Arsenal.

Are these shifts of 31 points compared to Man City and 19 points compared to Arsenal, more to do with Liverpool getting better or the other two falling off?

I think it is absolutely both Arsenal and Man City dropping dramatically off their levels, showing they are very much human when it comes to losing a key player such as Saka or Rodri.

Liverpool have scored 69 goals this season in the Premier League and Mo Salah has 27 goals and 17 assists, so 44 direct goal involvements out of the 69 goals in total. Without Mo Salah how many points worse off would Liverpool have been this season AND will be next season?

People claim Leicester were lucky in 2015/16 when supposedly taking advantage of a drop off by certain clubs to take the title, well, that has certainly been the case with Liverpool this season. No disrespect but I think the likes of Forest especially, as well as others to an extent such as Bournemouth, have shown this season to be one that has been more about a fair few good teams who can all beat each other, more than a number of elite teams at the very top.

When it comes to star quality, I don’t think Liverpool are close to how good they were in 2018/19 and 2019/20, they finished on 97 points but only second to Man City, then the next season finished top on 99 points. Is anybody seriously going to claim that the likes of Salah and VVD are better now than when they were in their mid-twenties and at their true peak, rather than now heading to their mid-thirties?

Newcastle United contracts

In contrast to Liverpool, all of Newcastle’s best and key players have more than three years left on their contracts.

Unlike TAA, Salah and VVD, it would be down to Newcastle United to decide if any star player left AND if that did happen, it would take huge transfer fees.

Experiencing the NUFC pain but now transfer window approaching

Newcastle United went through their worst ever season for injuries in 2023/24 (and Tonali’s suspension) and this season hasn’t been great either. Surely we can hope for better luck moving forward.

Whilst with PSR, no luck will be needed.

We have been through the PSR pain of no new first team contenders coming in these last three transfer windows, plus needing to sell the young talent of Anderson and Minteh. However, that is done and dusted.

Newcastle United this summer will be in a very strong position to bring in a number of first team players as well as some squad players. With other squad players set to follow Almiron and Kelly out the door, to make room for and help finance new signings, especially from a PSR perspective.

Liverpool will also be in a good PSR position after not much spending these past three windows. However, having lost their three best players for nothing, it will take a miracle for them to even stand still at the level they are now, never mind move forward.

Best in Europe?

Liverpool had been very good and consistent in Europe this season but the idea they were the best in Europe, was exploded by PSG. I would say that in their two legged tie, PSG were superior in extra time and in three of the four halves of football, Liverpool only edging the second half at Anfield. Reality is that Liverpool experienced incredible luck over the two matches, as they were outclassed by PSG who had pretty much all of the star quality and flair that was on show. On chances, I reckon 6-1 or 7-2 would have been a fair aggregate score over the two matches, in PSG’s favour!

The bottom line anyway is that if you are one of the better English clubs then that automatically makes you competitive in Europe. The majority of the top twenty in the Deloitte report of clubs with highest revenues around the world, are from the Premier League. So unless playing a certain handful of clubs from the continent, the English clubs have a serious financial advantage.

Just look at Leicester when they won the league, they went out in the Champions League quarter-finals and unlucky not to get to the semis. Villa are in the quarters this season, along with Arsenal. Man U and Spurs have been terrible in the Premier League this season and yet still pretty easily have reached the last eight of the Europa League.

No real surprise then that a good to very good Liverpool have done well in the Champions League this season until outclassed by PSG. No doubt some will point to Newcastle ‘failing’ in the Champions League last season but hat was to a backdrop of the horrendous injury situation AND United were competitive. They did well against AC Milan, Dortmund and PSG, very fine margins. Plus the toughest possible group, PSG getting to the semis and Dortmund the final. Also, don’t mention THAT penalty decision in Paris!!!

As recently as 2022/23

Only two seasons ago, Newcastle United were a fair bit better than Liverpool, finishing four points clear of them and into the Champions League at their expense.

Since then, the PSR situation, injuries and a not big enough squad of players good enough, has meant Eddie Howe massively fighting against the odds. Very much the opposite for Liverpool in that time.

As outlined above, Newcastle United now able to progress again in the upcoming transfer window and so many quality young players who will get better and others now in their prime, the likes of Hall, Botman, Livramento, Gordon, Tonali, Bruno, Joelinton, Isak.

I don’t think Liverpool are suddenly going to fall off a cliff BUT I would be amazed if they do anything like as well next season. I think this group of players have largely peaked for them and other clubs, including Newcastle United, will be more competitive next season, whilst Liverpool are needing a decent rebuild. Especially if/when losing those three best players, two of who are ageing anyway.

Who would you have?

Liverpool are still going to be good next season BUT for me they have been simply a very decent team this campaign. Playing better together than their individual parts, with VVD, TAA and especially Salah adding a sprinkling of star quality.

Take those three away and what are you left with?

A lot of good Premier League players but are they really that good?

Would you swap Livramento and Hall for Liverpool’s full-backs moving forward?

Would you swap Gordon and Isak for their Liverpool equivalents?

Newcastle’s midfield trio are at least a match for Liverpool’s.

Bring the right ones in

With fair luck on injuries, if then Eddie Howe brings in three new instant first team contenders this summer and two or three others, is there any reason why Newcastle United couldn’t potentially progress and overtake Liverpool?

If Tonali hadn’t been suspended last season and even just a couple less key injuries, I think for sure that at the very least, United would have qualified for the Champions League again for this season.

This season

Even against the odds, this season Eddie Howe has managed a win, a draw and a loss against top of the table Liverpool,, three wins against second top Arsenal, three wins against third placed Forest, a win and a loss against fourth placed Chelsea.

The team that you see now, the one that outclassed Liverpool last Sunday at Wembley, this Newcastle United team is going to be even better next season AND have stronger back up.

That trophy saw dreams fulfilled BUT for me, it is even more exciting, the fact that we can now dream of even better moving forward under Eddie Howe and a club that is desperately trying to be successful now, on and off the pitch.