Newcastle United getting Champions League qualification – Key factor now apparent | OneFootball

Newcastle United and the 2025/26 Champions League.

The big question, can Eddie Howe’s team get qualification via this 2024/25 Premier League season?

First of all, we have to acknowledge one big positive underlying factor.

The 2023/24 season, saw for the first time, an extra Champions League place awarded to the top two leagues of Uefa’s coefficients rankings.

In other words, the two countries that saw their clubs collectively perform best in Europe, got an extra Champions League place.

In five of the previous six seasons that would have seen the Premier League as one of the two, however, Italy and Germany were the top two performing leagues in European competition across the 2023/24 season.

With European competitions set to kick off again later today (Tuesday 21 January), OPTA analysis has shown that as things currently stand, after results so far in Europe, the Premier League has a 97.8% chance of finishing in the top two of Uefa’s coefficients rankings and receiving a bonus place in next season’s competition.

Bottom line is that this 2024/25 Premier League season, it is very very highly likely to be a race to finish in the top five to qualify for the Champions League and not top four.

Just one extra place BUT when you are one of the teams potentially set to finish say 4th to 6th in the Premier League, it is massive.

This is how the Premier League table looked after 22 rounds of matches in the 2023/24 season (table via Transfermarkt):

This is how the Premier League table now looks after 22 rounds of matches in the 2024/25 season:

Comparing the two tables Liverpool once again very top at this stage and if avoiding defeat against Everton in their game in hand, will at least match the 51 points they had after the first 22 fixtures last season.

However, the striking thing for me, is that when you look at the four clubs in second to fifth place, last season they had collectively 15 more points than we see the clubs in the same positions now.

I might be proved wrong BUT I think the bottom line is that to finish top five this season, you will need less points than last (2023/24) season. I think there has been a coming together of Premier League clubs, with generally the clubs towards the very top seeing a drop off in quality and consistency, whilst some teams who finished lower down last season, have now improved.

It is a lot more competitive this time and any one of a number of teams showing any level of consistency from this point forward, will stand a great chance of Champions League qualification.

Have a look at the Premier League points return from the last possible 21 (as at Tuesday 21 January 2025):

19 Forest

18 Newcastle United

15 Liverpool, Arsenal

14 Brighton, Palace

13 Bournemouth

11 Man City, Villa

10 Fulham

9 Chelsea

8 West Ham

7 Man U, Wolves, Ipswich

6 Everton

5 Brentford

4 Spurs

1 Southampton

0 Leicester

Now have a look at the final 2023/24 Premier League table:

As you can see, Villa were fourth with 68 points and got Champions League qualification, Spurs were fifth with 66 points and didn’t get CL.

I can’t help but wonder that despite the worst season for injuries in the club’s entire history, if Sandro Tonali hadn’t been suspended, could he have been enough to get the extra six to eight points that would have seen an even more remarkable top four or five finish???

Anyway, back to the here and now, WITH Sandro Tonali.

Saturday against Bournemouth was a setback but as others have pointed out on The Mag, there were key factors in play. Bournemouth unbeaten in ten and playing every well, Newcastle United with only 63 hours since the Wolves match ended and just totally out of sorts, looking mentally fatigued as much as anything.

Leaving that behind us, I see no reason why Newcastle can’t now get back on the winning trail at rock bottom Southampton and then home to Fulham, a full week of preparation available to Eddie Howe ahead of each one.

In contrast, this midweek we have the Champions League and Europa League back in action, plus in these next two rounds of Premier League matches, some very big games at the top between high up clubs.

Such as Bournemouth v Forest, Man City v Chelsea, Forest v Brighton, Bournemouth v Liverpool and Arsenal v Man City.

Six points from their two matches would take Eddie Howe’s side to 44 points after 24 PL matches and probably top four, guaranteed top five.

When Newcastle United qualified for the Champions League in 2022/23, they finished on 71 points with Liverpool fifth on 67 points. Plus, last season it was Villa fourth on 68 points and Spurs 66 points in fifth.

If Newcastle can be on 44 points after these Southampton and Fulham matches, they would then have 14 matches and 42 points to play for, needing 22 points to match fifth place Spurs last season, 23 points to match fifth place Liverpool the season before, 24 points to match fourth place Villa last season, 27 points to match NUFCs fourth place 71 points of 2022/23.

We are talking 22-27 points to match those various fourth and fifth places of the past two seasons.

You would be talking about needing to win between seven and nine of the last fourteen PL matches, effectively seven or eight once you factor in two or three draws as well.

This really is a golden opportunity for Newcastle United to get back into the Champions League and whilst on the surface they look low key, these two games against Southampton and Fulham could be the key ones.