Newcastle v Arsenal: Back a fast start from Gunners at 13/8 | OneFootball

EFL Cup

Arsenal boss Mikel Arteta

Arsenal simply have to go all-in from the first whistle in the Carabao Cup second leg and Sky Sports' Lewis Jones has spotted some value in their price to win the first half...

Newcastle v ArsenalWednesday 5 February, 20:00Live on Sky Sports Football & Main Event

Newcastle have one foot in the final - can they stay calm?

Arsenal have to create history to make the Carabao Cup final. Newcastle are in a strong position as no team has ever won a League Cup semi-final first leg by two or more goals away from home and not progressed to the final.

Even just losing the first leg at home is a hard thing to overcome. Arsenal would become just the third team in history to make the League Cup final after losing the semi-final first leg at home. The previous 18 teams to do so have all been eliminated.

Arsenal are only 9/2 to qualify though so the market does give them an 18 per cent probability squeak of causing major drama on Tyneside. Newcastle are 1/7 to make the final and take a step closer to winning their first domestic major trophy since 1955.

Arsenal have to fly out of traps

A betting angle that really excites me at the moment is Arsenal making fast starts in matches - it's a clear tactic being employed when the time is right by Mikel Arteta.

And this is the perfect scenario to unleash this tactic by engaging Newcastle high up the pitch and make life as uncomfortable as possible for them. That's why the 13/8 for Arsenal to be winning at half time has got my name all over it.

A two-goal cushion is a hard one to approach tactically from Eddie Howe's point of view. He won't want his team to sit on that lead and make the crowd nervous but sometimes instinct takes over. It's going to be difficult for the Toon to play with the same tempo and urgency knowing they have a two-goal cushion. That indecision could make them vulnerable in the early stages.

Arsenal have shown in their last four home games that they're very comfortable flying out of the blocks. They won a combined 10 corners in the first 10 minutes of those matches, signifying their intent by creating some strong underlying numbers. And importantly for our betting angle they went in at the break in all four of those matches in front.

Rice, Rice, Baby!

Declan Rice is the most appealing in the shots market in a game where you are guaranteed that the gamestate will be in your favour for almost the entirety of the match. Arsenal have to attack and attack regularly.

This will lead to a high amount of possession and territory which should in turn give them opportunities to post lots of shots at goal. Rice admitted himself after the Man City win that he's feeling much more like the real Declan Rice after a slow start to the season. He was phenomenal for the Gunners in that win, playing like a wrecking ball in midfield and providing the quality when receiving the ball to hurt City - as shown by his two assists.

He is becoming more accustomed to playing in the No.8 role now and although he didn't have a shot on Sunday, his longer term data makes him very appealing in the shots market. Before his City blank he'd registered 13 shots in his previous seven games, including scoring the opening goal against Dinamo Zagreb.

Recommended bets

Back Arsenal to be winning at half time @ 13/8