Opta Predicts Barcelona v Paris Saint-Germain: Yamal powers Opta's 6/1 bet builder | OneFootball

Barcelona and Paris Saint-Germain were moments away from meeting in last season's UEFA Champions League final, but Hansi Flick's side were pegged back in stoppage time of their epic semi-final second leg against Inter and ultimately crashed out.

PSG, of course, then trounced the Nerazzurri 5-0 to capture their first European crown, but they face a stern test just two matchdays into their title defence on Wednesday.

Luis Enrique will be reunited with his former employers at the Estadi Olimpic Lluis Companys, with both Barca and PSG having made winning starts to the league stage.

While Barca edged out Newcastle United 2-1 with Marcus Rashford scoring twice, PSG routed Atalanta 4-0 at the Parc des Princes.

However, this heavyweight matchup will be robbed of some of its star power - particularly on the PSG side - due to a spate of injuries.

Here, we dive into the Opta data to help punters pick out an enticing midweek Bet Builder.

Holders PSG up against it due to injuries

Both Barcelona and PSG are 6/1 to win the Champions League in Betfair's outright betting, level with Arsenal and Liverpool among the favourites.

Barca are 7/2 favourites to finish first in the league stage, with PSG - who have a difficult schedule - available at 5/1, with the result of this clash set to have a sizable impact on those prices.

Barca v PSG head-to-head record

This will be the 16th meeting between the teams, and though Barca hold a narrow edge historically, winning six times compared to five victories for PSG, the Blaugrana's recent record in this fixture is poor.

Indeed, since winning three straight Champions League games against the French giants in 2014/15 - all with current PSG boss Luis Enrique in charge - Barca have only won two of their last six head-to-head meetings (one draw, three losses).

PSG also have a chance to make history this week, having won their last two away games against Barca, both 4-1 in the Champions League in February 2021 and April 2024.

They could become the first team to ever win three consecutive away matches against Barcelona in major European competition.

However, the holders enter this game as outsiders at 12/5 for victory on the sportsbook, with a home Barca win 8/11 and the draw available at 5/2.

Those prices are surely informed by the huge amount of fitness concerns in PSG's ranks, with several key players either ruled out or doubtful.

Dembélé, Doué and Neves likely to miss this game for PSG

Newly crowned Ballon d'Or winner Ousmane Dembélé is still out with a hamstring issue he sustained while on international duty with France, while Désiré Doué and João Neves have also been out injured recently and are thought unlikely to feature against Barca.

Captain and defensive stalwart Marquinhos is out until the next international break, and Saturday's 2-0 Ligue 1 win over Auxerre saw both Vitinha and Khvicha Kvaratskhelia substituted early after fitness scares. As if all that was not bad enough, Fabián Ruiz also missed PSG's last match after complaining of muscle soreness.

With anything approaching a fully fit squad, a price of 10/11 for PSG to avoid defeat on the Double Chance market would hold huge appeal, but it is impossible to have much confidence about their prospects amid an injury crisis of this magnitude.

PSG have actually got a strong record without Dembélé since they brought him back to France in August 2023, with their win rate standing at 69.3% in games he has started (75 matches, 52 wins) and increasing slightly to 70.6% when he is left out (51 matches, 36 wins).

But the question marks surrounding PSG's entire midfield three - who helped them average 62.24% possession and 557 successful passes per game in last season's Champions League - mean Barca warrant their favourites tag.

PSG have also looked vulnerable against better opposition this term, needing penalties to beat Tottenham Hotspur in the UEFA Super Cup and losing 1-0 to fierce rivals Marseille in Ligue 1.

OPTA Supercomputer prediction gives Barca 49% chance of winning

The Opta supercomputer assigns the Blaugrana a win probability of 48.8%, with PSG only winning in 28.4% of simulations and 22.8% ending level. However, Flick's team have injury concerns of their own, with Raphinha, Gavi and first-choice goalkeeper Joan García all out.

While Barca are rightful favourites, a price of 2/9 for them to win or draw on the Double Chance market, while short in its own right, might give punters an element of cover to start a Bet Builder.

It should be noted that PSG will have a full 24 hours of additional preparation time ahead of the game, but as well as topping LaLiga with 19 points from a possible 21 so far, Barca have only lost one of their last 12 home matches in the Champions League, winning nine and drawing two, though that defeat was against PSG in the 2023/24 quarter-finals.

That match is also the only time in that run that the Blaugrana have failed to score at least two goals, and they are a short price to net over 1.5 times here at 1/2.

Yamal to be involved following Ballon d'Or snub

Dembele's Ballon d'Or triumph came at the expense of Barcelona wonderkid Yamal, who finished second in the voting, ahead of Vitinha in third and Mohamed Salah in fourth.

Yamal's camp were not happy with the outcome, and in Dembele's absence, the 18-year-old could take centre-stage.

Barca won four consecutive games in all competitions while Yamal was sidelined with a groin injury after the international break, but the winger was back with a bang in Sunday's 2-1 win over Real Sociedad in LaLiga, assisting Robert Lewandowski just 62 seconds after coming off the bench.

Since the start of last season, Salah (26) is the only player from Europe's top five leagues to better Yamal's 24 assists in all competitions, with Barca team-mate Raphinha also on 24. Yamal is 9/4 to create a goal for a team-mate against PSG.

And in his last 18 competitive matches for club and country, Yamal has 18 goal involvements, scoring eight times and providing 10 assists. It is 5/6 for him to either score or assist, while he is 13/8 for an anytime goal and 6/1 to net the first goal.

Shots on target best way to bet Yamal

There are also other markets where Yamal should make an impact.

As well as being Barca's chief creator, Yamal is a high-volume shooter, attempting 242 shots in 59 games in all competitions since the start of last season - an average of 4.49 per 90 minutes.

Only Real Madrid's Kylian Mbappé (290) has fired off more total attempts among all players from Europe's top five leagues in that time, and Yamal is a very short 2/5 to maintain his per-90 average and fire off four or more shots, or 1/1 to attempt five.

Given the slim nature of those prices, punters might prefer to back Yamal for a couple of shots on target.

Yamal has hit the target with 91 of his efforts in that time, with his per-90 figure standing at 1.69 - the 11th-highest of any player from Europe's top five leagues to play over 2,000 minutes. The Spain star offers little value at 1/4 to hit the target once, but he is 6/5 to threaten Lucas Chevalier's goal on two or more occasions.

Fouls another Yamal angle to follow

Yamal's propensity to draw fouls from opposing defenders could open up another avenue of attack, as he has both attempted (500) and completed (265) more dribbles than any other player from Europe's top five leagues since the start of last season (all competitions). That latter figure is 99 more than his closest rival Mbappé.

As one would expect given his close control and searing pace, Yamal is fouled often - 2.02 times per 90 minutes in all competitions since the start of 2024/25, to be exact.

He is 4/6 to be fouled at least twice, and while Nuno Mendes is one of the world's most accomplished left-backs, the PSG man could be in direct competition with Yamal and is 11/10 to commit two or more fouls.

On the opposite side of PSG's back four, Achraf Hakimi committed the second-most fouls in the Champions League last season, with 21 (Neves conceded 24). He could be up against another tricky customer with in-form Rashford and is [15/8] to commit a couple of fouls.

The one note of caution would be that Yamal has played just 38 minutes of club football since August, but Flick has immense trust in the 18-year-old and with Raphinha out, it would be a surprise if he does not start this game.

Goals likely with a preference for Barca

Barcelona and PSG plundered 43 and 38 goals, respectively, in last season's Champions League, and many neutrals were disappointed they did not meet in the final.

Each of their last five UCL meetings have seen both teams score. The last time it didn't happen was a 4-0 win for PSG in the last 16 in 2016-17, a result that preceded Barca's famous 6-1 'Remontada' victory.

Meanwhile, 10 of their last 13 clashes have contained over 2.5 goals, and four of the last five meetings between them have featured over 3.5 goals.

It is fair to say, then, that goals are expected. It is just 2/5 for both teams to score, 4/11 for over 2.5 goals and 10/11 for over 3.5 goals.

Barca have scored in each of their last 44 matches in all competitions, netting 126 times in total and equalling the best scoring run in their illustrious history.

PSG, meanwhile, have won their last four Champions League games by a combined scoreline of 12-1, and their last two by an aggregate margin of 9-0, though their fitness woes could cause some punters to be cautious about backing too many goals from the away side.

Instead, a price of 19/20 for over 1.5 goals to be scored in the first half could hold appeal, with Barca scoring 88 times and conceding 37 in their 68 first halves since the start of last season. A more ambitious punt would be over 1.5 first-half Barcelona goals at 14/5, while the hosts can be backed to take a lead into the interval at 5/4.

Lewandowski, as one might expect, leads the goalscorer betting at 10/11 to net anytime and 7/2 for the first goal, while Rashford is 7/5 to build on his brace at Newcastle with another goal (and he is 11/2 to break the deadlock).

Rashford has provided at least one goal involvement on each of his last five starts for Barca in all competitions (two goals, three assists) and is 10/11 to supply a goal or an assist. His starting spot is not totally certain, however, given the good form of Ferran Torres, who has four goals in all competitions this season and is 5/4 to score another. With that in mind, Yamal is our preferred pick to register a goal involvement for the Blaugrana.

There are six Barca players at the top of the anytime goalscorer betting before you reach a PSG player, with Gonçalo Ramos 2/1. Kvaratskhelia is 21/10, but given his early exit from the win over Auxerre, Bradley Barcola - who has three goals this term - could offer better value at 11/4.

Barcola looks likely to start after being rested for the first half of PSG's most recent league win, and he has averaged 1.37 shots on target per 90 minutes this season. He is 8/13 to hit the target once, while Ramos is 1/2, having done so 1.9 times per 90.

Both players could also be worthy of attention in Betfair's Match Ups betting, where several head-to-head player-based selections can also be combined in multiples combinations.

While Yamal demands our attention among Barcelona players, backing Barcola to hit the target in a match where he is likely to shoulder more responsibility than usual looks prudent.

Set-pieces to present opportunities?

Though both teams have well-earned reputations for playing football that is easy on the eye, neither shy away from using set-pieces as a route to goal.

Indeed, both Barca and PSG have scored five goals that were assisted directly from set-pieces in all competitions this season. Across Europe's top five leagues, only Inter and Eintracht Frankfurt (both six) have scored more.

And both teams had joy from such scenarios in their respective league games last weekend, with Jules Koundé scoring from a Rashford corner for Barca, while centre-back due Illia Zabarnyi and Lucas Beraldo both did so for PSG.

No team took more corners than PSG in last season's Champions League (105), with Luis Enrique's side averaging 6.1 per game. They are 19/20 to have over 4.5 corners on Wednesday and 2/1 to rack up over 5.5, having amassed 14 versus Liverpool and 11 against Manchester City in two standout performances from last term.

But with Barca hoping to be on the front foot against weakened opponents, prices of 13/20 for over 9.5 match corners or 11/10 for over 10.5 might look more appealing.

Barca have had nine, 11 and 12 corners in their last three league games, and they are 19/20 to manage at least six in this game.

The corners race betting could also be worth a glance for punters that fancy either team to be particularly fast out of the blocks. Barca are 4/7 to reach three corners before PSG, who are 5/4. In the first-to-four corners betting, Barca are 8/13 with PSG 7/5.

OPTA's 6/1 Barca v PSG Bet Builder

Based on the above, the following Bet Builder based on our favourite selections is available at 6/1 on the sportsbook: