Opta Predicts Man City v Bournemouth: Back Semenyo shots in 11/1 bet builder | OneFootball

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Erling Haaland's sensational scoring streak came to an end last week, as Manchester City were beaten by Aston Villa. 

That defeat meant City sat fifth in the Premier League heading into the weekend, with ground to make up on early leaders Arsenal.

In a scenario few would have seen coming after nine matches, it is the visitors to the Etihad Stadium for Sunday's fixture who are closer to the Gunners in the standings.

Bournemouth's excellent start to the season has seen them collect 18 points. They have lost just once, with that defeat coming on the opening day against Liverpool, and the Cherries might consider themselves unfortunate to have been defeated at Anfield, given they fought back from two goals down before losing 4-2 late on.

Bournemouth's record against City is poor, but if Andoni Iraola's team claim a statement win here, it really could set them up to push on towards dizzying heights in 2025/26.

Using Opta data, we have picked out some of our favourite selections to make up a Bet Builder.

Man City favourites despite Bournemouth flying high

Bournemouth may be riding a wave having reached second place with their win over Nottingham Forest last time out, but they are still underdogs here with the Opta supercomputer.

The predictive model is forecasting a home Man City win, with Pep Guardiola's team coming out on top in 61.5% of Opta's 10,000 pre-match simulations.

The chance of a Bournemouth win is 18.2%, which is less than the probability of a draw (20.3%).

City are also the favourites on the Betfair Sportsbook, at 4/9, with Bournemouth returning 9/2. A draw can be backed at 11/4.

The hosts can be backed to avoid defeat at an extremely short 1/10 on the double chance market, with Bournemouth available at 6/4.

Given Bournemouth are in such strong form and City are not exactly in top gear, it would be fair to ask why the home side are so heavily fancied. Well, a glance at the head-to-head record between these two teams should answer any questions.

City have won all eight of their Premier League home games against Bournemouth - in top-flight history, only Manchester United (16/16 v Luton Town) and City themselves (9/9 v Swansea City) have a better 100% home win rate against an opponent.

In fact, Bournemouth have lost 15 of their 16 EPL games against City. The only exception, however, came last season, when the Cherries triumphed 2-1 at the Vitality Stadium.

City won the corresponding fixture last season, 3-1, back in May. Omar Marmoush, Bernardo Silva and Nico Gonzalez were on target for Guardiola's side, while Daniel Jebbison scored a last-gasp consolation goal for Bournemouth.

But Bournemouth will believe records are there to be broken, and they come into the game on the longest active unbeaten run in the division, navigating eight games without losing since that MD1 defeat at Liverpool (W5 D3).

A total of 18 points from nine games represents their best start to any top-flight campaign.

Man City are the only side in the Premier League this season to spend more than half of their total gametime in a winning position (51.3%). However, Bournemouth have spent the least time trailing both overall (98 minutes, 13 seconds) and as a percentage of gametime (10.9%) this season, so we could be in for a great contest.

Expect chances at the Etihad

This clash sees the Premier League's joint-leading scorers, City - who have netted 17 goals in nine games - go up against a Bournemouth team that have plundered 16 goals.

But the underlying metrics tell a slightly different story, with the Cherries significantly outperforming their 11.0 expected goals (xG) by 5.0. Only Burnley (5.2) and Tottenham (6.9) are outperforming their xG by a greater total so far.

That does not mean Bournemouth, who have found the net in eight of their nine league matches, are suddenly going to stop scoring, though it does suggest they are performing well beyond what might have been anticipated, based on the quality of chances they have created.

However, Bournemouth are also fantastic from long range. They have scored more goals from outside the box than any other top-flight side this season (six), with Marcus Tavernier scoring directly from a corner against Forest. The dangerous Antoine Semenyo and in-form Eli Kroupi are both capable of letting rip from distance.

Between them, these teams have had 84 shots on target this season (City rank fourth with 43, Bournemouth rank joint-fifth with 41).

So there should be no shortage of goalscoring chances, and over 2.5 goals is available on the Sportsbook at 1/2. Over 3.5 goals can be backed at a tempting 13/10, and over 4.5 is 16/5.

Three of Bournemouth's last four league matches have seen at least four goals scored, though a word of warning - City's last three league games have only seen four goals in total.

And while these teams can both be fantastic going forward, they have also shown their mettle defensively at times, each keeping four clean sheets, tied for the third-most in the league this season, behind Newcastle United (five) and Arsenal (six).

A 3-4 goal range could tempt some punters at 6/5, while 4-6 is available at 6/4. A bolder 5-6 goal range returns 4/1, while 3-5 comes in at 8/11.

Interestingly, City are averaging 13.7 shots per game in the league this season, their lowest average across a single campaign since 2007-08 (11.1), but the fact they rank so highly for shots on target shows how clinical they can be.

City to have 6+ shots on target returns 8/11 and 7+ is 6/4. Bournemouth, though, have averaged 4.5 shots on target per match this term, so 10/1 to have at least four here could hold appeal as part of a bet builder. The Cherries can be backed at 11/5 for 5+ shots on target.

Both teams to score can be backed at 8/13, while BTTS - No is 5/4.

City to win and BTTS comes in at 9/5, with a Bournemouth victory and BTTS returns 17/2. A score draw is 9/2.

If indeed there are plenty of shooting opportunities, then that could lead to plenty of corners.

Bournemouth have won 51 corners in the league this season - 5.6 per match - while City average 5.1 (46 in total).

City can be backed to win over 6.5 team corners at 5/4, while over 7.5 is 11/5 - a more conservative selection could be over 5.5 home corners, at 13/20.

Bournemouth, meanwhile, can be backed for over 3.5 corners at 13/20, over 4.5 at 31/20 or over 5.5 at 3/1.

Haaland to get straight back on the goal trail?

Haaland's extraordinary 12-game scoring run in all competitions came to an end in the 1-0 away loss to Villa.

It was no surprise to see the Norwegian superstar given a rest by Guardiola for Wednesday's EFL Cup tie with Swansea City, which City came from behind to win 3-1 thanks to goals from Jeremy Doku, Marmoush and Rayan Cherki.

But Haaland will be back and leading the line, as he looks to add to his tally off 11 league goals.

He is on 96 Premier League goals and is set to smash the record for the quickest player to reach 100 goals in the competition.

Haaland has scored more goals (11), had more shots (37) and more shots on target (21) than any other Premier League player this season.

He has also scored a brace in his last three league appearances at the Etihad.

Two or more goals for Haaland is available on the Sportsbook at 3/1, while he is 11/1 to net a hat-trick. The 25-year-old is 8/13 to score anytime and a tempting 5/2 to open the scoring. He is averaging a goal every 18.7 touches in the top flight this term.

However, of the 23 sides Haaland has faced in the competition, only against Newcastle (447) does he have a worse minutes-per-goal average than he does against Bournemouth, netting just once in 439 minutes against the Cherries.

Perhaps a happy medium, then, is to punt on Haaland's shots on target. He can be picked to have 3+ at 2/1, and 2+ at 4/7. A single Haaland shot on target may not hold enough value at 1/9, but a more interesting play could be 2/5 for him to have 4+ shots overall.

Haaland, of course, is not City's only threat, albeit it has seemed that way at times - he has been responsible for a huge 64.7% (11/17) of their league goals this term and no other player has scored more than once for them.

However, Phil Foden appears to be clicking back into gear after a poor 2024/25 campaign. Should he feature, he will play in the Premier League for the 200th time and become the youngest player to reach this milestone for City (25 years 158 days old on the day of the game).

Foden is 15/8 to score anytime, 8/13 to have a shot on target and 11/4 to have 2+. Marmoush has returned from injury and is back in scoring form - the Egyptian is 7/4 to net and 6/1 to break the deadlock. He can be backed at 7/4 to have 2+ shots on target, and 11/2 for at least three.

City have also got two players who rank in the top 10 in the league for chances created, with Foden, who has one assist to his name, crafting 17 and Doku, who has provided three assists, laying on 16 opportunities for his team-mates.

Doku has registered five league goal involvements in four appearances against Bournemouth in the competition (one goal, four assists). That is three more goal involvements than he has had against any other team. He is 11/4 to score anytime and 11/4 to assist. Foden, meanwhile, is 9/6 to assist anytime.

In the score or assist market, Foden - 5/6, Marmoush - 1/1, Doku - 13/10 and Cherki, at 11/10, could all be intriguing City options.

But Bournemouth have plenty to offer, too.

Nineteen-year-old Kroupi has scored in three straight Premier League appearances. Only three teenagers have ever scored in four consecutive games in the competition - Robbie Fowler (three times in 1994-95), Nicolas Anelka (twice in 1998-99) and Francis Jeffers (in 2000-01).

With such attacking talent on show, the goalkeepers could be busy.

Djordje Petrovic has prevented 1.7 goals this season, using Opta's expected goals on target model, which can measure the quality of a goalkeeper's saves, with his 27 stops the fifth-highest total in the Premier League. Italy international Gianluigi Donnarumma, meanwhile, has only had to make nine saves so far.

Bournemouth's Petrovic can be backed to make 4+ saves at an appealing 11/10, while it is 12/5 for 5+ saves.

If the Cherries can cause Donnarumma more problems than he has had up to now, the odds for the home shot-stopper to make at least four saves are 16/5, with 5+ saves at 15/2. City's goalkeeper can be backed to make 3+ saves at 13/10.

Multiple methods to back Semenyo

Semenyo is always an exciting player to watch. Only Haaland (12) can better his nine league goal involvements in 2025/26 - with the winger scoring six goals and providing three assists.

His 30% shot conversion rate just edges out Haaland's 29.7%, with the Ghana international having averaged 2.2 shots per game and 1.2 attempts on target.

Bournemouth's talisman is 10/1 to open the scoring and an enticing 16/5 to find the back of the net at any time, or 22/1 to bag at least a brace. Backing Semenyo for 2+ shots on target returns 7/2, while 3+ is 16/1. Just one shot on target from the winger still brings in 5/6, while Semenyo to score or assist is 23/10.

But there may also be other methods to back Semenyo being heavily involved.

Semenyo has conceded 21 fouls in the league this season, which is nine more than any other Bournemouth or City player. He is 4/9 to commit 2+ fouls or 3/1 to be booked.

One way to back both a positive or negative outcome from a Bournemouth perspective is Semenyo at 7/5 to either score or be shown a card.

Elsewhere in the disciplinary markets, Tyler Adams should feature at the heart of Bournemouth's midfield, and he has already picked up four yellow cards this season. The United States international is 23/10 to be carded again, 4/7 to make 2+ fouls and 2/1 for 3+. Adams has already committed 12 fouls this term.

Alex Scott and Doku, meanwhile, have both been fouled on 14 occasions. Doku is 1/4 to win 2+ fouls and 4/5 for 3+. Scott is a more tempting 8/15 to win 2+ fouls, and 8/5 to be fouled on three or more occasions.

Now read Alan Shearer's Premier League predictions for every match this weekend