Opta Predicts Newcastle v Arsenal: Back Eze and Guimaraes in 8/1 Bet Builder | OneFootball

Newcastle v ArsenalSunday, 16:30Live on Sky Sports

After losing more ground in their chase for the Premier League title, Arsenal travel to St James' Park to take on Newcastle United, who are yet to spark their season into life.

Arsenal needed a stoppage-time intervention from Gabriel Martinelli to claim a 1-1 draw at home to Manchester City last weekend after falling behind to Erling Haaland's goal.

Newcastle, meanwhile, were held to a frustrating goalless draw at Bournemouth, with their new-look attack still yet to fire since the sale of Alexander Isak.

Both sides got back on track with midweek wins in the EFL Cup, and their attentions will now firmly be on a fixture that has provided thrills and spills in the past.

Ahead of Sunday's crunch clash on Tyneside, we've delved into the Opta data to pick out the best Bet Builder selections.

Can Arsenal end their St James' Park woe?

St James' Park is often described as one of the most intimidating away grounds in the Premier League, and Arsenal have struggled there of late.

Newcastle have won their last three home games against Arsenal in all competitions without conceding a single goal.

Under Mikel Arteta, Arsenal have only lost more away games at Manchester City in all competitions (five) than they have away to Newcastle (four).

Their last encounter at St James' Park came in last season's EFL Cup semi-finals, with goals from Jacob Murphy and Anthony Gordon sealing a 2-0 success for the Magpies, who advanced 4-0 on aggregate and went on to win the trophy against Liverpool at Wembley.

However, Arsenal are favourites to end their Tyneside hoodoo here, with the Gunners 1/1 for victory on the Betfair Sportsbook match result market. Newcastle are 12/5 for the win while a draw is priced at 15/8.

Those odds are roughly in line with the Opta supercomputer's predictions, with Arsenal seen as favourites, albeit not overwhelmingly so. The Gunners were victorious in 44.6% of our 10,000 data-led simulations. Newcastle are handed a 30.4% win probability, while a draw occurred in 25% of projections.

Newcastle are desperate to kickstart their campaign, having won just one of their last seven league games (three draws, three losses), a run that started with a 1-0 defeat to Arsenal in May.

But Liverpool are the only side to beat, or even score against, Newcastle in the Premier League this term, and the Magpies are 4/6 to avoid defeat in the Double Chance betting. Arteta's side are extremely short in the same market at 3/10.

Arsenal have lost just one of their last 16 top-flight away games (eight wins, seven draws), though that defeat did come in their last such match at Liverpool. Only twice since May 2022 have the Gunners lost consecutive league games on the road, although the second defeat did come at Newcastle on both occasions (May 2022 and November 2024).

Arsenal were criticised for an apprehensive start to last week's game against City, but the potential promotion of Eberechi Eze and Bukayo Saka to their starting lineup after useful cameos might be enough to steer some punters away from backing their opponents.

Tensions could boil over in Newcastle v Arsenal

Recent matches between Newcastle and Arsenal have not been for the faint of heart, with many of them seeing tensions spill over.

A 1-0 win for Newcastle in November 2023 was ignited by a strong Kai Havertz challenge on Sean Longstaff, with St James' Park already raucous after Gordon scored a controversial goal that survived three VAR checks.

Since that feisty encounter, there have been 14 yellow cards in three league fixtures between these teams, equally shared at seven apiece.

There were five yellow cards handed out to Newcastle's players nearly two years ago, one of which went to Bruno Guimarães, who so often finds himself in trouble with the officials.

Only Wolves' João Gomes (12), Brentford's Igor Thiago (14) and Fulham's Sasa Lukic (18) have committed more fouls than Guimarães (11) in the Premier League this season.

Indeed, since signing for the Magpies in January 2022, Guimarães has made 184 fouls in the competition, with only team-mate Joelinton (188) and Chelsea's Moisés Caicedo (196) committing more.

In that same period, Guimarães has also won more fouls (346) than any other player, almost 100 more than second-placed Jordan Ayew (258), so he is always in the thick of the action. He is 13/10 to be fouled at least three times.

The Newcastle captain is 6/5 to commit three or more fouls of his own, while he is 21/10 to receive a card. He has been cautioned in each of the Magpies' two home games in the Premier League this season, against Liverpool and Wolves.

Joelinton is 6/4 to receive a card, while the next most-likely Newcastle player to be cautioned is another midfielder, with Sandro Tonali 23/10.

Newcastle's disciplinary record has been mixed so far in 2025/26. In terms of yellow cards, only West Ham (four) and Manchester United (three) have received fewer than their six in the Premier League.

However, that could change in a white-hot atmosphere, and Newcastle did see Gordon lose his head and receive his marching orders in another big home game against Liverpool last month.

Indeed, it is 5/6 for over 4.5 cards to be shown in total, a figure that would tally with the average (4.7) from the teams' last three Premier League meetings.

And for punters who fancy Newcastle to find themselves in more trouble with the referee, it is 7/2 for them to be shown over 3.5 cards.

Another factor to consider is the man in the middle, Jarred Gillett.

Gillett has given 19 yellow cards to Newcastle players in nine top-flight games officiating them, only booking Tottenham players (28 times) more often.

On the Arsenal side, only three players have recorded more tackles in the Premier League this season than Jurriën Timber (17), who has averaged 4.5 per 90 minutes.

With livewire Gordon back from his domestic suspension and likely to line up against Timber on the left side of Newcastle's attack, a price of 1/1 for the Dutchman to make multiple fouls looks to offer value, while the right-back is 3/1 to find his way into Gillet's notebook.

Ricardo Calafiori, meanwhile, has made two or more tackles in each of his last three games, also conceding two or more fouls on three of his five appearances. The Italian is 10/11 for multiple fouls and 2/1 for a card, but with Arteta having Ben White and Myles Lewis-Skelly as alternative options at full-back, looking at Newcastle's midfielders may prove more prudent.

Returning to Guimarães, he scored Newcastle's clinching goal in their 2-0 win over the Gunners at the tail end of the 2021/22 season, while he has struck in two of Newcastle's last four Premier League home games - versus Chelsea in May and Liverpool in August. He is 17/2 to net again here.

The Brazilian has four bookings in his last six league games at St James', and if you fancy him to be heavily involved in Sunday's proceedings - for better or for worse - a price of 13/8 for him to either score or be carded could offer good value on two outcomes.

Timber and Calafiori, meanwhile, could make ideal candidates for a Match Ups bet, where they can be backed to commit more fouls than a rival player. Match Up Multis are also available, allowing multiple player-based head-to-head bets to be combined.

Eze to provide much-needed spark?

Three of Newcastle's five league games this season have ended 0-0, the most goalless draws after five matches of a single Premier League campaign since Burnley also had three in 2014/15.

Last week's clash at the Vitality Stadium produced just 15 shots and a combined expected goals (xG) figure of 0.69 - both of which are the lowest totals in a Premier League game this season.

It is not much fun backing a goalless stalemate, but for those that way inclined, another 0-0 draw is 9/1 on the correct score market.

Howe will hope the return of Gordon will make a difference to Newcastle's attacking output. The 24-year-old has a good record against Arsenal, scoring three goals and providing one assist in nine games against them in all competitions. Only against West Brom (six - five goals, one assist) has he managed more goal involvements in his professional career.

And punters could be tempted to back Gordon for the first goal of the match at 10/1, though an anytime price of 4/1 still looks strong.

However, only David Brooks (11) has had more shots without scoring than Gordon (10) in the Premier League this season, with the Newcastle forward also one of five players to record over 1.0 xG without netting (1.1). Perhaps, then, Gordon to record a shot on target is more tempting at 1/1.

Nick Woltemade is Newcastle's best hope of finding the back of the net, according to the Betfair Sportsbook odds. The towering German is 3/1 to score, ahead of Harvey Barnes at 7/2.

Barnes' next goal will be his 50th in the Premier League (35 for Leicester City, 14 for Newcastle). However, he has faced Arsenal more often without scoring than any other opponent in the top flight (12), and Gordon's availability - plus some strong recent displays from Anthony Elanga - could put his position under threat.

Another player closing in on a milestone moment is Arsenal winger Saka, who played an hour in the Gunners' midweek cup win over Port Vale and will likely start, having returned to full fitness.

With 54 goals and 45 assists, Saka is one goal involvement away from becoming the eighth player to reach 100 for Arsenal in the Premier League.

Aged 24 years and 23 days on the day of this game, he would be the second youngest to reach this milestone for the Gunners after Cesc Fabregas in 2010 (23 years, 237 days). Saka is 7/1 to score first, 11/4 for an anytime goal and 7/5 to score or assist.

Perhaps unsurprisingly, Viktor Gyökeres leads the goalscoring markets at 9/2 to score first and 7/4 to net anytime, though Eze is another intriguing option after getting off the mark for his new club against Port Vale.

The former Crystal Palace man is 10/3 to net at any time on Tyneside, though punters may be more inclined just to back him to test Nick Pope in the Newcastle goal.

It is likely Eze gets significantly more gametime after Arteta was criticised for waiting until half-time to introduce him against Man City, and he is 5/6 to attempt at least three shots.

Eze is usually happy to try his luck. He averaged 1.97 shots from outside the area per 90 minutes in the Premier League last season, the most of any player.

Since the start of 2024/25, he ranks sixth among all players for total shots attempted (111) and is one of just six midfielders to average more than one shot on target (1.02) per 90 minutes. A price of 5/6 for him to hit the target at least once, then, might be a smart Bet Builder pick.

Defence the best form of attack?

Arteta's title hopefuls have been accused of playing with the handbrake on recently, though the Spaniard did hit back at those suggestions earlier this week.

Newcastle could perhaps be tarred with the same brush this season, and while Howe's attack is yet to fire, his backline looks as sound as ever.

Indeed, Newcastle have faced fewer shots (37) and have a lower expected goals against (xGA) figure (2.6) than any other side in the Premier League this season, with Arsenal facing 44 shots, the fourth-fewest in the division. The Gunners' 3.3 xGA, meanwhile, is the second-lowest.

At the other end, only Aston Villa (1.9%) have a lower shot conversion rate than Newcastle's 5.6% this campaign, with Arsenal much higher at 15.5%, having found the back of the net 10 times compared to the Magpies' three.

But Arsenal have struggled to create aside from set-plays, amassing just 3.1 open-play xG this season. That is a lower figure than the 3.7 open-play xG created by pointless Wolves throughout their first four matches, while Newcastle have only managed 3.0 open-play xG.

Therefore, punters may decide BTTS - No holds appeal at 9/10 and they could also look towards the lower end of the goal markets.

A Betfair Sportsbook price of 4/6 for under 2.5 match goals could tempt some, while it is 21/10 for those tempted to be bolder at under 1.5 goals.

Incredibly, 10 of the last 11 meetings between Newcastle and Arsenal, in all competitions, have contained two goals or fewer, including each of the last four.

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