Opta Predicts Newcastle v Tottenham: Back Magpies in bet builder at 8/1 | OneFootball

All is not well at Tottenham. Just a few short months into Thomas Frank's reign, the former Brentford boss is already feeling the pressure.

Boos rained down on Spurs from their own supporters after just six minutes on Saturday, as they quickly fell two goals down at home to Fulham. More jeers followed at half-time and full-time, with Mohammed Kudus' fine volley not enough to prevent a 2-1 defeat.

Having taken a meagre five points from seven home games this season, Frank's men might be relieved to get on the road again on Tuesday, though they face a tough test against Newcastle United.

The Magpies romped to a 4-1 victory over Everton at Hill Dickinson Stadium last time out, a result that took the Magpies level with Spurs in the table.

Ahead of this midweek showdown at St James' Park, we have studied the Opta data and picked out our favourite Bet Builder selections.

Newcastle's favourites tag warranted

Newcastle are clear favourites for victory on the Betfair Sportsbook, at a price of 8/13 with Betfair's 90 Minute Guarantee. A Spurs win is available at 10/3, with the draw 12/5.

The Opta supercomputer also makes the Magpies favourites. Newcastle are assigned a 54.7% chance of victory to Tottenham's 22%, while 23.3% of simulations finished all square.

Newcastle have had the upper hand in this fixture of late, winning five of their last six Premier League games against Tottenham (one defeat), including each of the last three in a row. That is as many defeats as Spurs suffered in the teams' previous 17 head-to-head meetings (10 wins, two draws).

This is the first time Spurs have lost three consecutive Premier League matches against Newcastle since enduring a six-game streak between April 2006 and December 2008.

Newcastle's three successive wins against Spurs have come by an aggregate score of 12-2.

The hosts are 9/5 to beat a -1 handicap, which they have done three times in the sides' last four meetings at St James', or 5/1 to win with a -2 start - they won this fixture 6-1 in 2022/23 and 4-0 in 2023/24.

And the Magpies have also tasted success in this fixture already this season. In late October, goals from Fabian Schar and Nick Woltemade guided Eddie Howe's men to a 2-0 win in the fourth round of the EFL Cup, in a tie that saw both managers keep rotation to a minimum.

 Since then, Newcastle have seen both teams score in five of their six games across all competitions, with the same amount containing over 2.5 goals. It is 8/11 for both teams to net on Tuesday, and it is also 8/11 for at least three goals to be scored.

Spurs have seen over 3.5 goals scored in four of their last five matches, and it is 9/5 for a minimum of four goals. Given Frank's team have conceded multiple goals in each of their last four, shipping a total of 13 against Manchester United (2-2), Arsenal (1-4), Paris Saint-Germain (3-5) and Fulham (1-2), that price may tempt many.

Newcastle have scored at least two goals in six successive home games since losing 2-1 to Arsenal in September, meanwhile, and over 1.5 home goals is available at 4/6.

Tottenham have saved their best performances for the road this campaign, going unbeaten in four top-flight trips outside London (three wins, one draw), with their only away loss in the competition coming against Arsenal.

Spurs are 11/10 to avoid defeat on the Double Chance market and 13/5 on the Draw No Bet market, but it is difficult to have much - if any - confidence in them. Even their away form has tailed off lately, winning just one of their last five on their travels across all competitions (one draw, three defeats), against Everton in late October.

And that does not bode well ahead of a trip to St James' Park, where Newcastle have won six straight matches in all competitions and 11 of 16 in the Premier League this calendar year. Their 69% win rate at home in 2025 is their fifth highest in a single calendar year, with two of those five best figures coming under Howe (also 70% in 2023, 14/20).

Another positive omen for the hosts is that they are unbeaten in their last 10 home midweek (Tuesday, Wednesday or Thursday evenings) matches in the Premier League (seven wins, three draws), while Spurs have won just one of their last 13 midweek games in the competition (two draws, 10 defeats), losing each of their last seven in a row.

Woltemade and Barnes to lead the Newcastle charge

Woltemade was stepping into some big shoes when he replaced Liverpool-bound Alexander Isak at the end of the transfer window, but the Germany international has taken to the Premier League like a duck to water.

His delicate lob over Jordan Pickford on Saturday was his seventh goal for Newcastle in all competitions, with only Harvey Barnes able to match that tally for the Magpies this season.

Only Erling Haaland (11), Igor Thiago (nine), Danny Welbeck (seven) and Jean-Philippe Mateta (six) have bettered Woltemade's five Premier League goals since he made his debut on September 13, and of that quintet, only Haaland (73.5%) and Thiago (73.9%) have hit the target with a greater proportion of their shots than the German (57.1%, 8/19).

Woltemade leads the anytime goalscorer betting at 5/4, while he is also 4/1 to net first or 6/1 to score twice, as he did for Germany against Luxembourg during the recent international break.

The former-Stuttgart man is a tempting 15/8 to have two or more shots on target, having reached that figure against Man City and Everton. He has hit the target with 44% of his attempts since joining the club, across all competitions (10/23).

Next in the goalscorer betting is Barnes, who is available at 9/5 to net anytime or 11/2 to break the deadlock. Barnes has four goals in his last four matches in all competitions, scoring twice against Man City and also netting in defeats at Brentford and Marseille.

Barnes leads all Newcastle players for expected goals (5.1 xG), shots (32) and shots on target (14) this season. With that in mind, a price of 1/2 for the winger to attempt three or more shots could appeal, as could another 1/2 bet for him to get one effort on target.

Per 90 minutes, only Jacob Murphy (3.14) and Anthony Gordon (3.06) have averaged more shots than Barnes (2.89) for Newcastle this season (minimum 400 minutes played). Murphy is 4/9 to attempt three shots and also 4/9 to hit the target at least once.

Gordon is also 4/9 to fire off three efforts, 4/9 to get one on target, or 2/1 to get on the scoresheet. Going back to Murphy, he is 23/10 to find the net or 12/5 to register an assist - he has teed up three goals this campaign.

However, Barnes' strong recent form has seen Gordon displaced from Howe's preferred lineup, only starting one of Newcastle's last four matches. Though with a busy December in store, Howe may well look to rotate his squad, with Anthony Elanga having impressed against Everton, too.

Playing on Tyneside tends to bring out the best in Newcastle skipper Bruno Guimaraes, who has 11 goal involvements in his last 19 home Premier League games (seven goals, four assists), scoring (twice) or assisting (once) in each of his last three at St James' - his best-ever such run.

Guimaraes - who also has a team-high four assists in all competitions this season - is a tempting 5/1 to score anytime, 9/2 to register an assist, or 12/5 for a goal contribution of either kind.

The top four names in the anytime goalscorer betting are all Newcastle players, with Richarlison next at 11/4. Richarlison has been involved in six goals in 10 league appearances against Newcastle (four goals, two assists), only boasting more combined goals and assists against Liverpool (four goals, three assists). Elanga is also 11/4, though the Swede has been in and out of Howe's starting lineup, meaning punters might wish to exercise caution.

Richarlison is the only Spurs player to average over two shots per 90 this campaign, at 2.34 (in all competitions), and the Brazilian is 4/11 to pass that mark again. His 1.03 shots on target per 90 is another team-high figure, and he is 8/13 to test Aaron Ramsdale - who replaced the injured Nick Pope in Newcastle's goal at Everton.

Physical battle anticipated in Newcastle v Spurs

Few Premier League stadiums can inspire a vociferous atmosphere quite like St James', and that energy often translates to the pitch, particularly when the Premier League's established powers come to town.

Newcastle have committed 75 fouls in six home Premier League matches this campaign, averaging a division-high 12.5 per game.

Spurs, meanwhile, rank fifth in the league for fouls committed this season (153) and third for yellow cards (32), with only Bournemouth (35) and Brighton and Hove Albion (33) receiving more cautions.

With that in mind, punters may be drawn to a price of 4/9 for over 3.5 cards to be shown over the course of the game, or 1/1 for over 4.5. Newcastle are 15/8 to receive the most cards, while Spurs are 10/11 to do so with the tie 10/3.

Several player-based bets could also hold appeal. Guimaraes, for example, has committed the joint fifth-most fouls in the Premier League this season (23) while receiving three bookings, and he also ranks third for fouls won (27).

The Brazilian is 4/9 to commit at least two fouls or 17/10 to concede three or more. He is 1/3 to win at least two fouls, meanwhile, or 1/1 for at least three. A price of 8/5 for him to either score or receive a card is also a tempting way to back both a positive and negative scenario, given his aforementioned hot streak on home soil and tendency to be involved in the thick of the action.

Joao Palhinha - the Premier League's most prolific tackler - will be in direct competition with Guimaraes in midfield and is an enticing 10/11 to commit at least two fouls.

Dan Burn is level with Guimaraes for fouls committed and yellow cards, and the centre-back is 5/6 to commit a couple of fouls - a likely prospect given he could be marking livewire forward Richarlison - or 21/10 to find himself in referee Thomas Bramall's notebook.

Gordon has won more fouls per 90 minutes in the Premier League than any other player in either squad (2.52) and is 1/1 to draw at least three in this one.

Simons is Spurs' most fouled player this season, drawing 1.62 per 90 minutes, and the silky Dutchman is 4/7 to be fouled on two occasions or more.

Back a busy day for Vicario

Saturday was not a good day for Guglielmo Vicario.

Having raced out to the left-back position to sweep up a ball in behind, the Italian was in no man's land when Fulham's Harry Wilson found the unguarded net with a first-time curler from near the right-hand touchline.

Vicario was booed by his own supporters when he next touched the ball, with Frank later describing those jeers as "unacceptable" and saying those who vented their fury at the goalkeeper were not "true" Tottenham fans.

Now Vicario is one of just three goalkeepers to make two errors leading to goals in the Premier League this season (alongside Matz Sels and Pickford), and should the under-fire 'keeper maintain his place in Spurs' starting lineup, Newcastle will look to keep him busy.

Spurs' goalkeeper - whoever that may be - is 8/15 to make at least three saves, 5/4 to make four or more or 13/5 to achieve a minimum of five, and all of those prices warrant attention.

Only Burnley's Martin Dubravka (50), Sunderland's Robin Roefs (47) and Forest's Sels (43) have made more stops than Vicario's 39 in the Premier League this campaign.

Vicario has averaged exactly three saves per game, but Burnley (four), Man City (four), Bournemouth (five), West Ham (four), Chelsea (eight) and Arsenal (four) have all forced him to go beyond that figure.

Newcastle could be well-equipped to do likewise. They have recorded at least 12 shots in five of their last seven league games, also going over three shots on target in five of those matches.

They are a very short price of 1/7 to attempt 12 or more shots, with punters needing to back them to fire off at least 17 to get an odds-against price - that is available at 6/5.