Opta supercomputer ranks the 10 EFL Championship clubs most likely to get relegated | OneFootball

The supercomputer has had its say on who it feels has the highest percentage chance of relegation this season

The Championship campaign gets underway on Friday night, and the quality across the entire division has made the discussions about who may get relegated rather interesting.

The three newly promoted League One clubs all have strong claims to survival, whether that be their relative size compared to the rest of the division or their underdog status, given this is their first time in the second tier since the 1960s.

Then, with teams spending big across the board, are some clubs in danger of being left behind? And will there be another case similar to Leicester City, where a top side on paper at a club with a rather toxic atmosphere struggles to perform to the levels expected of them?

Either way, the relegation battle is set to be an interesting one, and Opta have had their say. Based on 10,000 simulations of the 2026/27 Championship campaign, here are the 10 sides most likely to be relegated.

10 ? ? Lincoln City - 14%

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Quite a few critics are already tipping Lincoln to put up a fight, but ultimately succumb to relegation in their first second-tier campaign since the 1960/61 term.

And while Opta do have them in the top 10 most likely candidates, they only prop up this list, rather than feature near the top of it, with a 14% chance across 10,000 Championship simulations.

The Imps have lost the head coach behind their 103-point title-winning campaign in League One last season, Michael Skubala, but wasted no time in promoting assistants Chris Cohen and Tom Shaw, believing that the continuity will breed success.

They also said that the new joint-managers led the majority of training sessions last season, so whether they played a large role in that Skubala-led campaign last year is still to be found out.

With a style of play that means Lincoln don't play with much of the ball anyway, they won't need too many seismic shifts in philosophy to become the underdogs this year, and the supercomputer gives them a decent chance at survival compared to their peers.

9 ? ? Blackburn Rovers - 15.1%

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Blackburn Rovers are in a bit of a difficult situation, watching their relegation rivals spend big in the ongoing window while they've only added two new players and have had their head coach fly to meet the Venky's to try and persuade them to increase the transfer budget.

That being said, unlike last season, there hasn't been much in terms of player departures, so Rovers head into the new campaign with little in terms of key squad turnover, and the final 15 games of last year under Michael O'Neill saw them post a top-half record.

So, there's enough quality in this Blackburn squad to stay above the dotted line, but they'll be banking on injuries staying low and a returning Tony Mowbray to be a success in the dugout.

The atmosphere surrounding the club will always make their survival chances slim, but at 15.1%, the supercomputer has other sides at worse odds.

8 ? ? Bristol City - 17.7%

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There's been a lot of change at Bristol City this summer, both on and off the field, and the main feeling around Ashton Gate is one of optimism, not only for this season, but for the future, too.

James Ellis is in as new sporting director and has overseen a transfer window filled with exciting young stars, some of whom have been top performers in League One over the past few years, and in the dugout is the man who won the third tier last season.

But we saw last season with Charlton Athletic that the jump to the Championship can prove difficult for some of League One's better players. Granted, in the likes of Sam Tickle, Lorent Tolaj and Dom Ballard, there's a bit more expectation that they can hit the ground running.

Opta are erring on the side of caution with Bristol City, though, and have them at a 17.7% chance of suffering what would be a shock relegation.

7 ? ? QPR - 19.6%

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Another somewhat surprising inclusion on the list is QPR, who, like Bristol City, will also have their eyes on perhaps gatecrashing a top eight party come May, but Opta see the possibility of them going the other way at 19.6%.

That could mainly be due to the sheer inconsistency at Loftus Road last season in Julien Stephan's first season in charge and the way they ended the campaign, too, with eight defeats in their final 13 games.

Only Sheffield Wednesday conceded more goals last year than the Hoops, albeit the underlying numbers had them around mid-table when it came to their defence.

With the additions of Pierce Charles and Denis Cirkin, plus a full season of Ronnie Edwards and Jimmy Dunne partnering together at the back, that should improve those numbers even further.

Despite that, though, they still have the supercomputer to prove wrong, who have them seventh-most likely to be relegated.

6 ? ? Cardiff City - 22.8%

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Cardiff City are an intriguing prospect heading into the new campaign. Brian Barry-Murphy's playstyle and philosophy worked brilliantly in League One, and it allowed for several young, homegrown stars to become household names in the Welsh capital.

But that was easier to do in the third tier, where the Bluebirds were a big fish in smaller waters. Things are different now, and not only will it be interesting to see if Barry-Murphy continues his possession-heavy style, but also how these young stars will adapt to the Championship.

It doesn't look like the higher-ups at the Cardiff City Stadium are that interested in investing in the squad currently. They've made just four signings in the last two summer windows — Nathan Trott, Gabriel Osho and Jack Moylan on permanent deals, with Omari Kellyman joining on loan last year.

Losing Kellyman will be a blow, as will the loss of Ryan Wintle, who was integral in orchestrating that midfield and being the lynchpin in that possession-based style.

With questions surrounding Wintle's replacement, and what type of Cardiff side we will see on the pitch this year, it's not that surprising to see the Bluebirds at a 22.8% chance of relegation.

5 ? ? Bolton Wanderers - 23.1%

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Like Cardiff, Bolton Wanderers come into the Championship having been a front-footed attacking side last year. Questions over how Steven Schumacher may adapt are still to be answered ahead of the new season.

Wanderers will have the advantage of playing in front of 20,000+ crowds every other week at home, and they'll need that loud support, as the squad, arguably, is weaker heading into opening day than it was ahead of the play-off final in late May.

Numerous attacking loan stars have returned to their parent clubs, and have either gone elsewhere or don't look like a second loan spell is on the cards. The likes of Ibrahim Cissoko and Mason Burstow have found new clubs, and Johnny Kenny and Amario Cozier-Duberry's future is still unknown.

There are question marks over whether Jack Bonham is good enough in goal, whether Ben Davies or Akin Famewo can upgrade the defence, and if Wrexham loanee and former Schumacher striker Ryan Hardie can stay fit after a year disrupted by injury and being unfavoured.

Obviously, those questions will be answered in the first few games, and more transfer business will be done between now and the end of the window, but for now, Opta have Bolton at 23.1%.

4 ? ? Preston North End - 25%

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All three newly promoted sides have been and gone now, so it'll be interesting to see who the supercomputer has predicted to have a bigger chance at relegation. In fourth is Preston North End, who were relegated exactly 25% of the time across the 10,000 simulations.

The Lilywhites were one of the bigger overperformers of their underlying numbers last season, and per Opta's expected points table, actually finished in the bottom three. Granted, so did Hull City, and they're now in the Premier League, but it's still a slight concern.

Then factoring in that, despite making a splash early on in signing Alfie Devine for a club-record £6 million fee, North End haven't had that good of a transfer window. He's one of four new arrivals, and they've lost captain Ben Whiteman, alongside Lewis Dobbin and Daniel Jebbison, who had solid loan spells at Deepdale last year.

Last year, Preston started well before sliding down the table in the second half of the season. A poor start, and that slide could result in them finishing in the bottom three.

3 ? ? Watford - 25.3%

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You never know what to expect from Watford, and while that could lead to the Hornets going under the radar and surprising a few people, it could also result in the complete opposite happening, and that's what Opta are predicting.

The supercomputer actually predicted Watford as the joint-most likely candidates this time last season. They're third this time round, and that's due to the way they ended last year.

Indeed, from New Year's Day until the end of the season, the Hornets posted the third-worst record in the division. Only Sheffield Wednesday and Leicester were worse, and Watford won just four of the 22 games played in 2026.

With another managerial change and a transfer window filled with additions from Udinese, who knows what Watford will look like this year? I'm not sure many Watford fans know themselves.

They have quality in the side, that's for sure, enough quality to see them avoid the drop, but the atmosphere around the club is wading, and the instability compared to others could see them in some danger.

2 ? ? Charlton Athletic - 26.2%

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Charlton are heading into consecutive Championship campaigns for the first time in a decade, but the supercomputer isn't too sure they'll be sticking around for a third.

Nathan Jones' side finished 19th last year, bringing through a lot of promising third-tier talent with them. Not all of them worked out, but there's the scope for the likes of Charlie Kelman to take sufficient next steps, alongside Sonny Carey, who adapted well last year.

The Welsh boss is also looking at changing style, playing a back-four system that saw them dominate in large back in League One. Signings such as Millenic Alli and a returning Karlan Grant will help establish that, while Rob Apter, Harvey Knibbs and Tyreece Campbell, you'd suspect, will benefit from that change, too.

The risk with that obviously comes with perhaps leaking more goals, though. Charlton were compact and difficult to break down last year, and the 58 goals they conceded were a big part of them staying up. That being said, only Sheffield Wednesday and Blackburn scored fewer.

Conceding more, but scoring more too, may be the key to success for the Addicks this year, but Opta has them as the second-most likely side to go down.

1 ? ? Stoke City - 31.1%

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There's a large jump between second and first, and the fact that it's Stoke City who have been relegated 31.1% of the time in 10,000 simulations is quite shocking.

The stats do back that up, though. If not for the Potters being a top-two side for the opening months of the campaign, they'd have been in a lot more relegation danger than they were.

Indeed, over a 32-game stretch from November 8 to the end of the season, only Sheffield Wednesday picked up fewer points than Stoke, winning seven of those games. In the final 20 games of the season, the Potters won three and lost 11.

That's relegation form over a decently sized sample size, and Opta don't think enough has been done, despite investment in the squad this year, to change that.