Opta supercomputer ranks the 9 EFL Championship clubs most likely to get promoted | OneFootball

The supercomputer has had its say on who it believes could be celebrating promotion to the Premier League come May

The Championship campaign kicks off on Friday, with what should be an intriguing matchup between Wolves and Blackburn Rovers.

Thus begins nine months of highs and lows and pure entertainment across what is highly anticipated as being one of the most competitive Championship seasons in memory.

With two established top-flight sides coming down, and the other relegated club securing 100-point campaigns in each of their last two seasons at the level, added to those who were incredibly close to promotion last year and are set to improve, the promotion race is hard to predict.

So, what does Opta think? The last two seasons have seen two of their top four most likely promotion candidates finish in the top two (Burnley and Leeds United in 2024/25 and Coventry City and Ipswich Town last year), but they also had Sheffield United atop this specific list this time last season, with a 41.1% chance of promotion. They finished 13th.

So, while not a certified given, it's always better to be on this list than not. Here are the nine most likely promotion candidates in the Championship this season, according to Opta.

9 ? ? Birmingham City

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Birmingham City's ambition at this level knows no bounds. This time last year, owner Tom Wagner was outlining his desire for a double promotion, and the signings they were making, alongside the personnel still at the club, indicated that it could well happen.

Not all of those arrivals managed to gel together, though, and there were some clear teething problems. This summer seems to be a little more strategic; only five players have signed, and two of them were here for parts of last year, too.

With a little more continuity within the side and the emergence of August Priske, who, granted, it's only pre-season and one EFL Cup match, looks ready to take that next step in leading the Blues line, Chris Davies' side could easily better their 10th-placed finish from last year.

The Championship is looking incredibly competitive this year, though, so Opta are just giving them a 7.2% chance at promotion, with no percentage odds on winning the title.

8 ? ? Sheffield United

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It's a big dip from the 41.1% chance they had of promotion this time last year, but Opta still feel that Sheffield United have an outside shot at returning to the Premier League this season.

Quite a few critics have written off Chris Wilder's side this year, and while their squad isn't as strong or has as many game-changers in it as previous Blades sides, there are still plenty of very good Championship players within it.

Patrick Bamford, Callum O'Hare, Sydie Peck and an imminent Harry Souttar are a strong core, and could all contribute to a play-off finish. If Michael Cooper can find his form again and Oli Arblaster and Kalvin Phillips can remain fit, there's a very solid squad forming.

Plus, Chris Wilder is still one of the top managers in the division and has been promoted out of it with worse players. There's still only a slim 8.7% chance, but it's the eighth-best in this prediction.

7 ? ? Norwich City

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Norwich City have plenty of momentum from the final two-thirds of last season, where Philippe Clement transformed a side who were second-bottom upon his arrival in mid-November to one that finished 9th.

Norwich collected the fifth-most points in the division from the point of Clement's appointment, and only Southampton had a better record in 2026 than the Canaries, too.

In addition, Norwich have also had the luxury of a rather calm off-season. Only four new players have arrived at Carrow Road, but arguably, they haven't needed a full squad re-haul due to the hard work that has been done in previous windows.

With stability in the squad and in the dugout, the Canaries can just pick up where they left off last year. If they stay injury-free, they could be a real dark horse. Opta have them at a 6% chance of winning the title, and an 11.8% chance of finishing in the top two.

6 ? ? Millwall

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Millwall recorded their highest finish since the 1993/94 campaign last season, and were two points adrift of earning automatic promotion, too.

They've managed to keep the core of that squad on the eve of the new term, albeit if Femi Azeez is still a Millwall player by September 1, it'll be a real surprise, and perhaps would bump an already sixth-best odds even higher on this list.

Even with the division looking stronger, Alex Neil's side look ready to compete. Opta predicts that the Lions have a 13.8% chance of going one better and landing in the top two, with a 6.9% chance of lifting the title come May.

5 ? ? Burnley

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With Opta assessing probabilities, rather than certainties, it's no surprise that all three recently relegated Premier League sides occupy places in the top five, even if the landscape at Burnley doesn't look as positive as it has ahead of recent second-tier seasons.

The Clarets have achieved 100-point campaigns in each of the last two campaigns at Championship level under two different managers, and new boss Nicky Hayen will, therefore, have big shoes to fill this year.

The pace surrounding Burnley's movements this summer hasn't filled many fans with optimism, though. It took the higher-ups at Turf Moor until July 10 to bring in their new head coach. By then, their rivals were already in pre-season.

They still have a lot of Premier League quality players who could still be on the move this summer, and therefore still need to bring personnel to the club, too.

All signs point to a mini-hangover, but Opta still feels that Burnley have a 13.5% chance of promotion, and a 7% chance of winning their second Championship title in five years.

4 ? ? Wolves

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Wolves are also beginning a new era of sorts, back in the second tier for the first time since winning it in the 2017/18 campaign under a head coach in Cesar Peixoto, who, so far, looks promising, but time will tell how he adapts to Championship football.

One thing that cannot be denied is the quality in this Wolves squad heading into the new season, though.

Kieran Trippier and a returning Raul Jimenez, despite both being 35, are evidently still good enough to do a job in the Premier League; Adam Armstrong is as close a thing to a consistent goalscorer as you can get at Championship level currently, and Andre could easily be one of the best players in the league.

With other exciting young players around them, the Old Gold could be tough to stop if things click under the new boss. Opta have their promotion chances at 19.2%, with a chance at winning the title at 10.3%.

3 ? ? Middlesbrough

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Middlesbrough are a really exciting prospect heading into the new season. They were brilliant to watch under Kim Hellberg in his first half-year at the helm, but ran out of steam at critical moments at the end.

Despite losing Championship Player of the Season Hayden Hackney and captain Dael Fry, the Boro squad is arguably stronger than it was at the end of the campaign.

Will Lankshear has already shown his promise in front of goal on his debut. Fellow debutant Sebastian Berhalter assisted that goal, and Max Arfsten was involved from the left, too.

Leo Castledine will feel like a new signing, having had a full pre-season to get to grips with Kim Hellberg's high-intensity, demanding style, and the same could be said for some remaining players who perhaps didn't perform as well as they could have in the latter stages of last year.

All signs point to them hitting the ground running and, crucially, not falling away when it matters most. Opta have their promotion chances at 21%, with an 11% chance of winning the title.

2 ? ? Southampton

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Currently, taking into account league and play-off games, Southampton are on a 21-match unbeaten run, and their only defeat in the last 25 games was in the FA Cup semi-final against Manchester City.

The Saints were expelled from the play-off final due to being found guilty of spying on Middlesbrough ahead of their play-off semi-final first leg, and two other counts of spying during the season mean they will start this campaign with a four-point deduction.

Regardless of how last season ended, and whether that impressive run is tainted by it, there's still little doubting that Tonda Eckert is a very good young manager, and this Southampton side is still among the best in the league.

Under Eckert, the Saints picked up 68 points from 33 games, and if they can keep up that level of performance, even a points deduction shouldn't stop them from landing in the top two when 46 games are played this year.

Opta have their promotion chances at 23.7%, and their title hopes at 13% — which would be some accomplishment, given the deduction.

1 ? ? West Ham United

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West Ham United are a lot of people's favourites to win the Championship title this season, and the supercomputer agrees.

The Hammers are in the second tier for the first time in the 2011/12 campaign, and while they needed the play-offs to secure automatic promotion 15 years ago, their squad is in a much better place to bypass that and finish in the top two.

The starting eleven that Nuno Espirito Santo was able to put out in their EFL Cup win over Portsmouth last weekend included Jarrod Bowen, Taty Castellanos, Konstantinos Mavropanos, Mads Hermansen and Edson Alvarez.

If all of them stay, and we know at least Bowen is, with Nuno at the helm, this could be one of the best Championship squads on paper ever. Granted, titles aren't won on paper, but there may be little stopping West Ham this year.