Port Vale shouldn't hit Darren Moore panic button if Plymouth Argyle seal win - there is one clear reason | OneFootball

The underlying numbers haven't been kind for Darren Moore and Port Vale this season

There's a big clash at the bottom of League One this weekend, as Port Vale host Plymouth Argyle.

Both sides are in some rotten form, with neither side having won in League One since September 27th.

Since then, Plymouth drew at home with Wigan Athletic, who are yet to win on their travels this season, before losing their next six games in all competitions. And whilst Vale have picked up wins in the EFL Trophy and in the FA Cup, there've been three defeats in their last four league outings.

Because of this, both the Pilgrims and the Valiants sit in the bottom three ahead of Saturday's game, and if Peterborough United can get anything from their matchup against Stockport County on Thursday, they'll know that whoever loses will wind up bottom of the pile for the upcoming week.

From a Plymouth perspective, given they've just come down from the Championship, it's been a truly terrible start to the campaign, and a seventh consecutive loss in all competitions may be enough for the decision makers at Home Park to pull the plug on Tom Cleverley.

However, there may be some strong suggestions of the same happening at Vale Park if Darren Moore can't lead his side to a win over the league's basement side, suggestions which shouldn't be followed.

Port Vale shouldn't be hasty in making a decision surrounding Darren Moore's future

If Port Vale lose at home to a Plymouth side who have lost nine of their 11 away games in all competitions so far this season, they could find themselves at the bottom of the pile in League One.

After 17 games, being in the relegation zone, and even perhaps a few points adrift there, you could see some alarm bells being rung, especially given how competitive sides such as Burton Albion, Rotherham United and AFC Wimbledon, sides many expected to struggle, have been so far this season.

However, this shouldn't be the case, as under Darren Moore, Vale have actually been one of the better performing sides in League One this season in spite of their results.

According to Opta's expected table, which takes into account expected goals and expected goals against to calculate the points tally that the clubs should be on, Vale would be fourth, with 11 more points than they currently have right now.

Darren Moore's style of play has Vale playing some great football. According to Fotmob, they rank eighth in expected goals, third in big chances created and eighth in touches in the opposition box. They clearly just haven't experienced any luck in front of goal so far.

Additionally, Moore's style has Port Vale among the best defensive teams in the division, too! They're joint second for clean sheets, and their xG against sits at 15.6, the third best in league.

So, under Darren Moore, the Valiants are playing some fun, attack-minded football, whilst also being one of the better defensive teams in the division. That doesn't sound like a side who should be battling near the bottom, and it's surely only a matter of time before their luck starts to turn around.

Football is a results business, and they're just around the corner for Port Vale

Granted, if Vale fail to win on Saturday, that'll be just three wins in 17 League One games this season, which is relegation form, and how long can these results be brushed under the carpet due to good underlying numbers?

You can't stay up on the expected table, but there's always that belief that things will start to even out as the season goes on, and once Vale get that rub of the green, they'll begin to rise. Maybe not all the way up to fourth, but to a position far away from the bottom four.

Changing the manager won't change the clinical edge which the club lacks at the moment, neither will it automatically yield results, and as long as the players are still playing for the manager, there shouldn't be any knee-jerk reactions to get rid of him, even if Vale do lose this weekend.