Portugal v Slovenia: Bank on Bruno in 13/2 Bet Builder | OneFootball

Bet of the Day

Bruno Fernandes: Scored against Turkey in the group stage

Bruno Fernandes features prominently in the Betfair football props column on Monday, with a 13/2 shot suggested for Monday's Euro 2024 last-16 tie between Portugal and Slovenia.

Portugal v SloveniaMonday 1 July, 20:00

The 7/1 shot we put up about Bruno Fernandes in Portugal's opening game duly landed - in their second. It's been that sort of tournament for this column.

Leg 1: Bruno Fernandes to score or assist

But I'm keen to stick with the theory that the Manchester United star has the potential to be one of the real stars of this tournament and his impressive performance against Turkey on matchday two showed that.

He was rested for the final group game which brought a 2-0 defeat to Georgia, although the result was meaningless to the Portuguese, who had already won the group.

Fernandes and a number of his team-mates will now return to the starting XI for this last-16 clash and while Slovenia did beat Portugal 2-0 in a March friendly in Ljubljana, revenge should be taken.

Slovenia got the point they needed with a dogged defensive display against England in their final group game but they certainly looked limited in attacking terms. They've also now lost left-back Eric Janza to suspension.

Here, they face a team which should offer a greater attacking threat - Fernandes, in particular, will look to pass and carry the ball forward not sideways.

Portugal had the joint-best expected-goals (xG) figure in the group stages and only Germany conceded fewer shots, so the underlying numbers look good.

I think the key may well be getting ahead fairly early.

That would completely disrupt Slovenia's defensive tactics and, to some extent, force them out which could leave holes for the likes of Fernandes to exploit.

He's now landed the 'to score or assist' bet in 11 of his last 15 internationals. In those games, he's scored 10 times and assisted on nine occasions.

It's even money he makes it 12 of 16 and that makes the betslip.

Leg 2: Bruno Fernandes 1+ shot on target

Let's also back him again for a shot on target.

Fernandes delivered on that front in 10 of his last 12 international appearances, while he ended his club season with Manchester United by having a shot in each of his last 12 matches.

Leg 3: Jaka Bijol to commit 1+ foul

To complete our Bet Builder, let's head to the fouls markets where the Slovenian centre-backs have been producing good numbers.

Despite their largely stand-off approach, Jaka Bijol was aggressive against England when the ball got within striking distance of the goal, committing three fouls.

He's now had at least one in 10 of his last 14 internationals and can bag another here.

Leg 4: Vanja Drkusic to commit 1+ foul

His fellow centre-back, Vanja Drkusic is less experienced and this will be only his fifth competitive start when he'll be facing Fernandes and Cristiano Ronaldo.

He's committed a foul in the first four and is worth adding in to create a 13/2 four-fold.

Recommended bets

Back Bruno Fernandes to score or assist & 1+ shot on target and Jaka Bijol & Vanja Drkusic to commit 1+ foul each @ around 13/2

Column P/L 2023/24

Staked: 297pts Returned: 320.31pts P/L: +23.31pts

2022/23 P/L: +68.69pts