Portugal v Slovenia: Underdogs up for the fight | OneFootball

Euro 2024

Slovenia progressed after drawing all three group-stage games

Football tipster Mark O'Haire previews the last-16 showdown between Portugal and Slovenia in what's expected to be a tight encounter from Frankfurt...

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Portugal v Slovenia Monday July 1, 20:00Live on BBC

Big guns return for Portugal

Portugal kicked-off their Euro 2024 campaign with back-to-back victories over Czechia and Turkey, securing the Selecao's place at the top of the Group F table ahead of their final match against Georgia. Roberto Martinez opted to rotate his squad in that group-stage finale and the Iberians fell to a shock 2-0 reverse against the debutants.

The eight Portuguese changes largely contributed to a disjoined display against Georgia - Cristiano Ronaldo kept his place in the side yet failed to break his Euro 2024 duck despite firing in 12 attempts at goal. Nevertheless, the Selecao progressed with the best non-penalty Expected Goals (npxG) tally in the competition, creating 11 Big Chances.

Bernardo Silva, Vitinha and Joao Cancelo are all expected to return to the team for Monday's match-up, along with Pepe and Bruno Fernandes. Ronaldo should keep his place despite debate raging over his inclusion in the starting XI, whilst Rafael Leao is available again following suspension. Diogo Jota is hoping to be involved from the off.

Stubborn Slovenia

Slovenia reached the knockout stages of a major tournament for the first time in their history after playing out three draws in Group C, enough to ensure progression as one of Euro 2024's best third-placed sides. Matjaz Kek's men have averaged just 32% of the ball across their opening encounters yet have impressed in their defensive organisation.

The Slavic nation set up in a rigid 4-4-2 with two genuine stars at opposite endd of the field - goalkeeper and captain Jan Oblak and young striker Benjamin Sesko. Elsewhere, Jaka Bijol has enhanced his burgeoning reputation at centre-back, whilst the midfield is full of hard work and energy, giving the group a hardened edge that makes them difficult to dismiss.

Three successive stalemates has extended Slovenia's unbeaten streak to nine, and the stubborn underdogs did beat Portugal back in a March friendly so won't fear the Iberian outfit on Monday night. However, left back Erik Janza is suspended meaning Kek will have to shuffle his defensive pack ahead of the trip to Frankfurt.

Selecao unlikely to run riot

Portugal have been chalked-up as understandable short-priced 1.40 favourites with Slovenia as big as 11.00. The underdogs have been handed a +1.5 Asian Handicap start at 1.79, whilst the draw can be supported at 5.00 - both selections may pique the interest considering how the group-stage played out, though Portugal are a step-up in class.

However, Under 2.5 Goals is of much more appeal at 1.91. If Slovenia are capable of keeping this contest close and competitive, the match is unlikely to escalate into a high-scoring shootout. With that in-mind, the 2.00 on Portugal to win and Under 3.5 Goals holds plenty of appeal, paying-out should the Selecao win 1-0, 2-0, 3-0 or 2-1.

Just three of Slovenia's previous 22 matches have featured four goals or more with the outliers arriving against Malta, San Marino and Northern Ireland. Meanwhile, seven of Portugal's previous 10 competitive victories arrived saw Under 3.5 Goals bank; the Iberians have scored at least twice in all bar two meaningful matches under Roberto Martinez.

Sporar the Slovenian outlet

With Portugal expected to monopolise possession and territory, Slovenia will be on the back foot for the majority of the contest. Even so, Matjaz Kek's streetwise side know how to manage matches and Andraz Sporar's ability to win fouls has caught the eye in this competition with the former Middlesbrough flop proving an important outlet for the team.

Heavily involved for Slovenia thus far, pressing from the front, hassling and harrying, and proving a real nuisance for opposition sides in possession. The Panathinaikos player has a knack for also drawing fouls to help ease the pressure on his side; he won three fouls against England last time out, two against Serbia and one when facing Denmark.

The 30-year-old forward has therefore been fouled at least twice on two occasions and drew three when facing Portugal in that aforementioned March friendly fixture. I'm therefore happy to support Sporar To Be Fouled 2 Or More Times her at generous 7/5 quotes. Slovenian warhorse will relish his battle with Pepe and Ruben Dias.

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Back Andraz Sporar To Be Fouled 2 Or More Times @ 7/5