Betting.Betfair.com
·31 July 2024
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·31 July 2024
The Premier League is so strong now that it arguably has a big eight.
Last season, Manchester United finished eighth and the seven teams above them - Man City, Arsenal, Liverpool, Aston Villa, Tottenham, Chelsea and Newcastle - are all clubs you would expected to be nailed on for a top half finish again.
They are all odds on while City are unbackable, so unthinkable is it that the champions could slide out of the top 10.
That means that if I am looking for teams that are worth backing for a top-half finish, I only want to back two. I will rule out the three newly-promoted teams - Leicester, Ipswich and Southampton - and I don't fancy either of Brentford 10/3 or Nottingham Forest 6/1.
That leaves seven possibilities, all of whom are weighed up below.
The Seagulls are under new management in 2024/25 with 31-year-old Fabian Hurzeler taking over from Roberto De Zerbi.
The Brighton board have been masters of recruitment in the last decade, not only when it came to finding players, but also in appointing Chris Hughton, Graham Potter and De Zerbi, all of whom left the team in better shape than they found it. I wouldn't bet against Hurzeler continuing that run but the ex-St Pauli boss is an unknown quantity so, at the prices, I won't take them for a top half finish.
Palace are more appealing after their dramatic upturn in fortunes under Oliver Glasner. They achieved a 10th place finish under the German which had looked unlikely when Roy Hodgson departed in February. But evens is a short price for the South Londoners to end 2024/25 in the top, especially after Michael Olise left for Bayern Munich and Eberechi Eze odds-on to sign for Tottenham this summer.
After a difficult start, Bournemouth enjoyed an excellent first campaign under Andoni Iraola, the club's best in the top flight in fact. They finished 12th and are 2/1 to go two places better in 2024/25.
It would not be a surprise to see the Cherries crack the top half this time but, on balance, West Ham look a better option at a similar price.
This season the East Londoners will looking to improve under their new manager, Julen Lopetegui. They are 5/4 for a top-half finish and that looks a decent offer after they ended last season in ninth.
Lopetegui, who has Premier League experience from his half-a-season in charge of Wolves, should be an upgrade on the departed David Moyes.
If the Hammers do not fare better this season under Spaniard, their owners will look silly, as will the fans who called for Moyes' departure. Lopetegui should, at the least, be capable of keeping them in the top-half, so at odds-against they are worth backing.
Gary O'Neill is an exciting coach and his Wolves team won plaudits for their performances in the first-half of 2023/24. But they ended the season with one win in their last 10 Premier League matches on their way to a 14-place finish. That's the kind of form that can extend into next term if the manager doesn't make decisive changes in the summer.
O'Neil has excelled at surprising the doubters in his managerial career to dat. He would need to do so again for Wolves to be worth backing at 10/3 for a top-half finish.
Fulham look more plausible at 11/4 but Marco Silva's side are still unpredictable and, with Joao Palhinha gone to Bayern Munich, they have already lost a key man.
If we are looking for an outsider to back for a top-half finish then Everton appeal at 7/2. If that sounds far-fetched, after another takeover deal fell through recently, bear in mind the excellent job that Sean Dyche has done in keeping the team performing amid the off-field chaos of his tenure.
They finished 15th in 2023/24, with 40 points, four more than they totalled the previous season. But they lost eight to deductions, once the initial 10 was reduced to six and a further two docked.
They only accumulated 36 points in 2022/23 so if we are simply basing it on their results, they improved by 12 points last season. If they hadn't suffered the deductions Everton would have finished with only one point fewer than 10th-placed Palace.
Everton won four of their final six matches of last season. If Dyche can bring about more improvement this term, and if there are no further deductions coming down the line, the Toffees may be a smart outside bet for the top-half at 7/2.