Premier League Saturday Tips: Back Etihad thriller at 8/1 and Mbeumo in Emirates double | OneFootball

English Premier League

Eze is back among the assists

Ste Tudor looks forward to an eventful Crystal Palace v Manchester City clash, backs Mbeumo to strike at Arsenal and Leicester to flop again...

Betfair Saturday Superboost

Aston Villa' January  Transfer Window signing Marco Asensio has enjoyed a fine start at his new club, becoming one of Villa's key goalscoring threats.

The Spaniard has registered 11 shots on target in his last seven games, and on Saturday, against the Premier League's bottom club Southampton you can back him at the super-boosted price of 1/1 (from 2/5) to have at least one shot on target.

To take advantage of this latest Betfair Superboost just click on the odds in the below bet banner to go directly to the pre-loaded betslip.

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Man City v Crystal Palace (12:30) - The anti-derby

Unbeaten in 10 on the road, Palace would be heading to the Etihad in fantastic shape if not for key absences at the back.

With Chris Richards a serious doubt, Marc Guehi suspended and Maxence Lacroix unavailable, Oliver Glasner's over-achievers are tasked with shackling the likes of Marmoush and Doku minus their first-choice back three.

The former has scored every 83 minutes in East Manchester since joining from Frankfurt, and took on nine shots last time out there. The latter has averaged 6.5 successful dribbles per 90 this term.

Not that the visitors are lacking threats of their own, namely a well-balanced and lethal front three who seem to take it in turns to have stand-out performances. It was Eberechi Eze who stepped up against Brighton last week, assisting twice and winning 15 duels.

As an avowed fan of the trio, I'm backing the Eagles to score here in a contest that could be everything last weekend's Manchester derby wasn't, not least eventful.

Don't rule out an early advantage for the Blues. They have converted inside 20 minutes in 10 of their 15 league games at home.

Brighton v Leicester (15:00) - No foxes in the box

Without a clean sheet in five, the Seagulls' defensive issues are exacerbated here by the absence of Jan Paul van Hecke, arguably their best defender this campaign.

Frankly though, neither detail matters when coming up against a side apparently allergic to scoring.

The last time the domesticated Foxes found the back of the net was at Spurs in late January. Since then, 12 long hours have passed, an astonishing fallow period that would have seen a better side score by accident by now.

It can't even be said that Ruud Van Nistelrooy's misfirers have been unlucky on occasion. Their average xG across the eight games amounts to a pitiful 0.48.

The only thing stopping us from backing the hosts winning to nil is a superstitious belief in sod's law. For what it's worth that's priced up at 1/1

Instead, let's approach this home banker from a different angle. Brighton have scored more than one goal 17 times this season. In 12 of them they scored in both halves.

Nottingham Forest v Everton (15:00) - Fine margins

Ten of Forest's home league games this term have produced under 2.5 goals while 70% of Everton's fixtures since late September have done the same. Four of their last five have finished 1-1.

It's safe therefore to suggest that a low-scoring encounter may be on the cards at the City Ground.

Identifying who might make the difference in this contest of fine margins leads us to Callum Hudson-Odoi, who played a more central role last weekend with Wood and Awoniyi both injured. In what was elsewhere a frustrating afternoon his six key passes stood out.Then there's Morgan Gibbs-White, who has assisted six times in his last eight at home. The England international is 13/5 to add to his assists tally here.

Let's though focus on the visitor's frontline and a striker who has swapped goals for fouls committed in recent weeks.

Beto has made 10 league starts since deputising for Calvert-Lewin. In his first five he averaged a goal and a foul per 90. In his latter five he has failed to score but fouled 2.1 times per 90. Four of these came against Arsenal last week.

Southampton v Aston Villa (15:00) - 11/5 Saints at the double

Managerless, rudderless, and consigned to the Championship with weeks to spare, now is the time to back Southampton, especially as this fixture is sandwiched between Villa's Champions League commitments.

With their fate sealed, caretaker boss Simon Rusk has the opportunity to encourage his players to play with greater freedom, to show the St Marys faithful what they're capable of. A decent performance here and even more blame will be cast at the recently departed Ivan Juric, as unfair as that would be.

As for Villa, with one eye on a potential comeback against PSG this Tuesday, expect Unai Emery to deploy several of his peripheral talent and that runs the risk of his team losing some of the wonderful fluidity we've seen of late.

So, all things considered, does a shock Saints win await? Well, not really, not likely, not with the hosts so hamstrung by a defence that has shipped in 2.3 goals per 90 all season.

But the relegated side managed to score in each of their last four outings, and that was with the weight of the world on their shoulders. Backing them to double that tally doesn't seem preposterous given the circumstances.

Arsenal v Brentford (17:30) - Corner-count

With big names missing from their front-line, goals were beginning to dry up a little for the Gunners, in the league at least.

Just five goals converted in their last six - one every 108 minutes - is a strike-rate that pales compared to Ipswich, Wolves and West Ham in that same period.

As much as Trossard and Merino have done admirably well to step into the breach, it felt like the days of racking up threes, fours and fives at the Emirates had gone for the time being.

Only then Tuesday happened. A seismic, memorable and frankly astonishing hammering of the mighty Real Madrid. All bets are off now.

As for the Bees, they have still yet to beat Arsenal since gaining promotion four years ago. Encouragingly, however, Thomas Frank's men have only lost one of their last seven on the road.

Bryan Mbeumo is the danger man when picking out their main threat, the striker's last eight goal involvements all coming away from the Gtech.

If league goals have been in short supply for Mikel Arteta's men in recent times, their corner-count has not abated. Boasting the third highest number in the top-flight they have averaged 7.5 since the start of February.

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