Premier League Saturday Tips: Back Madueke, Barnes and a 7/1 Everton shout | OneFootball

English Premier League

Maresca strikes a pose

Ste Tudor highlights where the goals and three points will likely be found to get this Premier League weekend started...

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West Ham v Chelsea (12:30) - Mad about the boy

Under Enzo Maresca's new set-up Chelsea are taking on fewer shots this season to last, but we can still expect a fair few to trouble Alphonse Areola in nets this Saturday.

That's because the Hammers are struggling to execute Julen Lopetegui's demands and subsequently are facing more attempts on goal than any other side to date, a lofty 18.25 per 90. That's their highest average since 2010/11 when they were relegated.Which leads us neatly to Noni Madueke who has fired off four shots per 90 so far, a veritable bounty that has resulted in the winger bagging three goals at this early juncture.

Eight of his 12 shots have been taken in the first half.

Aston Villa v Wolves (15:00) - Crumbling fortress

With just one league win in 14, an early injury crisis, and a midfield that is routinely by-passed you have to wonder how long Gary O'Neill is going to remain employed in the West Midlands.

Backing the hosts to prevail though in this fiercely-contested derby - and compounding Wolves' woes - is not where value can be found. That lies in Villa conceding.

Initially under Unai Emery, Villa Park was a fortress, a place where clean sheets were the norm. In their last 12 outings at home, however, the Villans have shipped in 2.2 goals per 90. Indeed, in their last six they've been breached every 41 minutes.Wolves have scored all four of their goals this season in the first half.

Fulham v Newcastle (15:00) - Barnes stormer

The Cottagers have scored just twice in the last 13-and-a-half hours of this fixture, last beating Newcastle in 2017 when both sides resided in the Championship.

Backing the visitors to win to nil therefore tempts, especially given the form the Magpies are in. This is their best start to a top-flight campaign since 1996.

Closer inspection though reveals that the visitor's defence is living something of a charmed life and that cannot last. The difference between goals conceded (3) and xG against (6.5) is the widest in the Premier League.

That brings Raul Jimenez into play, the striker accruing 2.5 shots on target per 90 to date, while Antonee Robinson is a threat down the left, the 27-year-old well on his way to having his best season in West London.

For Eddie Howe's side, Harvey Barnes is fancied to make an impact, with three goal involvements in 158 mins. The former Leicester star should start with Isak a doubt and Callum Wilson sidelined.

It's worth noting too that both sides combined have won 50 corners already this term.

Leicester v Everton (15:00) - Toffees unstuck

The nature of Everton's last two defeats - capitulating both times after constructing a two goal lead - has distracted from the sheer volume of goals they are conceding, 3.2 per 90 and all under a manager who sacrifices adventurous fare for supposedly being defensively sound.

On seven occasions, just four games in, the Toffees have been breached beyond the 75th minute.

Naturally, such numbers point us in the direction of a home win, with some late drama to boot, but instinct takes precedence on this occasion, the visitors fancied to respond strongly to what has been almost a comically bad opening month.

Should they do so, Dwight McNeil will no doubt feature, the winger creating the most chances in the top-flight (17) and the most big chances (5).Then there's Dominic Calvert-Lewin with two in two. The forward scored in this fixture last season.The Foxes have also underwhelmed so far though not to such extremities. Their meagre corner-count of ten though is a league-low.

Liverpool v Bournemouth (15:00) - Mo repeats

Mo Salah was uncharacteristically quiet and ineffective against Nottingham Forest last week but that doesn't happen two games in a row for the striker at Anfield. That same sentiment extends to Liverpool.

The Egyptian hit-man has converted every 118 minutes in the league this season, with an impressive 62% shot accuracy, and with 14 of his last 20 top-flight goals struck at home he should be fancied to grab the headlines at Bournemouth's expense. Especially as he has previously scored nine in nine versus the Cherries.

Andoni Iraola's men have taken on the third most shots in 2024/25 (16.3 per game) but many have been speculative, from range They have committed to 26 attempts on goal from outside the box.

Twenty-five yarders from Kluivert and co could be their best chance of success against an imperious back-line responsible for the lowest xG against (2.8) in the league.

Southampton v Ipswich (15:00) - Adapt or die

Nigh-on every August we see a team come up, refuse to compromise on their principles against much better fare, and then suffer the consequences on a weekly basis. Last time out it was Burnley who paid for their hubris. Now it appears to be Southampton's turn.Four opening losses is already proof enough that almost exclusively playing out from the back - last season a mere 8.7% of the Saints' passes were longer than 30 yards - amounts to self-destruction against supremely organized presses.

And when individual errors inevitably occur now they are falling to elite strikers who score more than they miss.At the other end meanwhile a 2.8% chance conversion rate doesn't exactly help their cause.

At least here they face a fellow promoted side although it's one who took maximum points off them last term. Ipswich's stats don't make for particularly pleasant reading at this stage but with half of the sample size consisting of defeats to Liverpool and Manchester City let's wait and see.

What we do know is that Sam Morsy in intent on stamping his authority in the middle of the park, the Egyptian cautioned in each of his last three outings. He was also booked against the Saints last season.

Tottenham v Brentford (15:00) - Masking the truth

The Bees boast the highest chance conversion rate in the league (18.2%), an impressive figure that can be considered a double-edged sword.

That's because it's doubtful that such a high percentage can be sustained and we can only speculate what issues will come to light when it inevitably dips.

There is a lot of pressure on Bryan Mbeumo to make an impact here, what with Ivan Toney now on easy street in Saudi Arabia and with Yoane Wissa injured. The trio have scored 49.1% of Brentford's league goals this season and last.

There is another example of temporary excellence masking potential problems for Thomas Frank's side incidentally. Mark Flekken has made 5.5 saves per 90 to date, a league high.

As for Spurs, they may be struggling to properly ignite but it's certainly not for the lack of trying. Ange Postecoglou's men have forced the most high turnovers this term (47) and have afforded the lowest number of passes per defensive action (6.2).

The last four meetings between these sides have produced goal-fests, with 4.25 per game. Intriguingly, from that quartet none of the sides who scored first won out.

Crystal Palace v Man United (17:30) - Real dawn?

There have been a lot of positives for United this past week, not least via a comprehensive bettering of Southampton on the South Coast. A midweek thrashing of Barnsley in the League Cup meanwhile proved to be a tonic for several previously maligned players, with Marcus Rashford bagging a brace for the first time since February 2023.Even so, we should be skeptical about placing too much emphasis on these wins, and believing a significant corner has been turned. This is a club - especially under Ten Hag - that has seen more false dawns than a French and Saunders cosplay convention.

It was Palace who shone the harshest light on United's blemishes last term, outclassing them to the tune of four goals to nil at Selhurst Park, but they are in a very different place right now.

Too often sluggish and clearly missing the quicksilver endeavour of Michael Olise it is pertinent that the Eagles have not yet led for a single minute this season.

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