Premier League Saturday Tipsheet: Back to Liverpool to take their time at 16/5 | OneFootball

English Premier League Tips

Stinch is back with his best bets for the Premier League MD18 on Saturday

Odds compiler and football tipster Mark Stinchcombe shares his picks and insights for every Premier League matchday 18 on Saturday...

Football... Only Bettor. Listen to the latest episode now.

Nottingham Forest v Man City Tip - Back another City win

Nottingham Forest v Man CitySaturday, 12:30Live on TNT Sports

The Manchester City train continues to steam roll opponents as it's now five straight wins in the Premier League with all five seeing them leading at both half-time and full-time. They're seemingly flexing their muscles having scored at least three goals in all five games. Both of those bets repeating here could be tempting with City 13/10 to win the first half and win the game and 7/4 to score Over 2.5 goals. However, backing HT/FT bets at short-ish prices can be problematic and I'm not sure I want to back City to score tons of goals against a Sean Dyche side.

Instead it's impossible to look past the Premier League's top scorer and Man City's main man Erling Haaland. He's got 19 goals in 17 league games - eight more than anyone else in the division - and it comes as no surprise when he gets off 3.9 shots per-game. He's only 4/7 to score but if he does, the chances of Man City winning increase and so does our bet up to 10/11.

Arsenal v Brighton Tip - Back Arsenal to get the job done

Arsenal v BrightonSaturday, 15:00

Do we have a title race? Arsenal are only two points clear of Man City, and with the Cityzens playing at lunch-time, if they win that, Arsenal will kick-off here in second place. The Gunners' title credentials are built on their ability to not lose, with them unbeaten in 13 of their last 14 Premier League matches. This comes from their rock solid defence, where they've only conceded 10 in 17 games - six fewer than anyone else.

With the busy schedule seeing Arsenal playing in the League Cup semi-final on Tuesday, this game is all about getting the job done. Four of their last five meetings with Brighton have seen under 2.5 goals, including the last three at the Emirates. We can back Arsenal to get job done with the security of under 3.5 goals at 5/4, a big jump on their 4/11 win price.

Brentford v Bournemouth Tip - Back lots of goals

Brentford v BournemouthSaturday, 15:00

Only the two Manchester clubs matches have seen more goals than Bournemouth this season at an average of 3.24 goals per-game meaning eight of their last 12 have gone Over 2.5 goals. But it's gets even more impressive when they're away from home - 22 of their last 27 Premier League away games since the start of the 24/25 season have seen three or more goals (81%). Brentford are always good for a goals bet in my mind, given they've scored 24 yet conceded 25! They sit seventh for expected goals created and have kept just three clean sheets all season under rookie manager Keith Andrews.

Burnley v Everton Tip - Back the Toffees to take advantage

Burnley v EvertonSaturday, 15:00

It's now eight games without a win for Burnley, with seven defeats in that period. And it was only a 90th minute equaliser last weekend that stopped the rot. They've lost 12 of 17 games overall this season and their only wins have come against promoted sides and rock bottom Wolves. This is because they're too easy to play against. They concede the most shots (15.5 per-game) which in-turn has lead to conceding the most expected goals (2.22 per-game).

Going forward, they are having the fewest shots (8.5 per-game) and creating the second fewest expected goals (0.99 per-game). Excluding matches against top four Arsenal and Chelsea, Everton have won four of their last five games.

Liverpool v Wolves Tip - Back Liverpool to win later rather than sooner

Liverpool v WolvesSaturday, 15:00

Yes that's right, it's more doom and gloom for Wolves, it's just working out how to make Liverpool's 2/11 price pay. Wolves have now lost their last 10 Premier League matches, as a result of conceding at least two goals in eight of those 10 matches. However, it has been noticeable how tight they've managed to keep things early on, having been level at half-time in their last seven matches.

Liverpool are without Salah, Isak, Szoboszlai and possibly Gakpo so it could take them longer to unlock the door. We can back a draw at half-time and Liverpool to win the game at 16/5, a huge increase on their 2/11.

West Ham v Fulham Tip - Jarrod Bowen the dangerman

West Ham v FulhamSaturday, 15:00

Worrying times at West Ham as they have now failed to win their last six matches in the Premier League to find themselves five points adrift of safety. However, at 13/8 I can't back a Fulham side that have lost more games than they've won this season. So I think it makes sense to focus on the star man in this match and that has to be Jarrod Bowen. Despite the Hammers troubles, the England man is the club's top scorer and should go to the World Cup next summer.

Fulham will need to be wary of him as he's averaging 1.0 shots on target per-game which increases to 1.1 at home and is drawing 1.6 fouls per-game. Getting 18/5 he lands two or more shots on target and is fouled at least twice by a Fulham side averaging the sixth most fouls in the league looks a chunky price to attack.

Chelsea v Aston Villa Tip - Back goals, goals, goals

Chelsea v Aston VillaSaturday, 17:30Live on Sky Sports

Aston Villa have won a magnificent 10 games in a row and overall 16 of their last 18 across all competitions. No side has taken more points than Villa's 33 since the end of September after beginning the season winless in the first five, scoring just one goal. There has been some element of luck involved as expected points ranks them just 11th over this period.

Defensively they're overperforming and eight of their last nine have seen over 2.5 goals. It's a similar story for Chelsea in terms of goals with 17 of their last 23 across all competitions seeing over 2.5 goals (74%) and the return of Cole Palmer should mean even more goals.

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