Premier League Saturday Tipsheet: Haaland to do the business once again against Wolves at 2/1 | OneFootball

English Premier League Tips

Stinch is back with his best bets for the Premier League MD23 on Saturday

Odds compiler and football tipster Mark Stinchcombe shares his picks and insights for every game on Premier League matchday 23 on Saturday...

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West Ham v Sunderland Tip - Back goals with insurance

West Ham v SunderlandSaturday, 12:30Live on TNT Sports

It's likely in pre-season this would be earmarked as a potential six pointer but it's actually only hosts West Ham 6/4 in trouble as they sit 18th versus Sunderland's 9/5 ninth. Expected points actually has this has a six pointer with 18th v 17th but Sunderland continue to prove people wrong as they have done all season.

I think the way to punt this is to back goals with the market expecting only 2.50 goals based on the odds. Six of West Ham's last seven have seen Over 2.5 goals and the additions of strikers Valentin Castellanos and Pablo Felipe can only help, and for Sunderland, eight of their last 12 have gone over 2.5 based on expected goals.

Given the low expectation, we can actually be pragmatic and back Over 2.25 goals, knowing that with only with two goals we will still get half our stake back, and only zero or one goal will see the bet lose.

Burnley v Tottenham Tip - Back Clarets to continue to struggle

Burnley v TottenhamSaturday, 15:00

For all that is being spoken about Tottenham and Thomas Frank, this match begins with the fact that Burnley have failed to win their last 13 Premier League matches so when the opposition is priced up at 2.14, I don't think we can ignore it. In recent matches at Turf Moor, Man Utd were 1.72, Newcastle 1.58 and Fulham 1.98 suggesting that Spurs are overpriced.

Let's not forget Burnley are conceding the most shots in the league and thus the most expected goals, whilst going the other way, they're having the fewest shots and generating the second lowest xG.

Only Arsenal have won more points away from home than Spurs this season, while Burnley have the third worst home record. Spurs have already shown they are capable of beating the Clarets having won the reverse fixture 3-0. However, given the odds, we can be risk averse and back Spurs -0.25 on the Asian Handicap, meaning we get half our stake back if it finishes in a draw.

Fulham v Brighton Tip - Back goals, goals, goals

Fulham v BrightonSaturday, 15:00

Given there's only nine points separating fourth-placed Liverpool and Bournemouth in 15th, there is definitely an opportunity for a surprise package to crash the European spots this season. Here we have a Fulham side just five points adrift of Liverpool and Brighton just six back. Hosts Fulham 8/5 come into this in good form having won four of their last seven, losing just once, where as Brighton 17/10 have only suffered six defeats all season, so I'm hoping for a competitive clash.

Long-term readers will know my affinity with Brighton and goals, and I see no reason not to back Over 2.5 when it's priced up at 1.89 here. Eight of Fulham's last 12 have delivered winners in this market and for Fabian Hürzeler's side, 24 of their last 37 Premier League games have featured three or more goals (65%) with defence still a problem with just six clean sheets in their last 34 games. This fixture normally delivers, with seven of the last eight games at Craven Cottage seeing Over 2.5 goals.

Man City v Wolves Tip - Back Haaland to find his scoring boots

Man City v WolvesSaturday, 15:00

For all of Wolves' recent improvements, they've still failed to win 25 of their last 26 Premier League matches. And for all of Man City's recent shortcomings, Wolves have always been a good match-up for them, having won 10 of the last 11 meetings between the two. But the odds already tell us all of that with Man City just 2/11 to win here.

But one way of getting Man City onside, is to back their main threat in Erling Haaland to score multiple goals. Despite his recent struggles, Wolves are amongst his favourite sides to play against. That's because he has 10 goals in just six games against them, only scoring more against West Ham (11 in seven) and RB Leizpig (12 in eight).

In two home games versus Wolves, he's scored four goals and three goals, and has already scored a brace in the reverse fixture at the start of this season. Haaland has already scored five braces in just 11 league games at home and can add another one here.

Bournemouth v Liverpool Tip - Oppose Bournemouth by backing the Reds

Bournemouth v LiverpoolSaturday, 17:30Live on Sky Sports

Similar to the Tottenham match, this game begins with the fact Bournemouth have failed to win 12 of their last 13 Premier League matches and with the departure of top goalscorer Antoine Semenyo this month, it's unlikely things will change in the immediate future.

Liverpool come here off the back of an impressive 3-0 victory in Marseille after the return of Mo Salah, and in contrast with Bournemouth, are now unbeaten in their last 13 games across all competitions.

This is a favourable match-up for the Reds as well, having been leading at both half-time and full-time in 12 of their last 14 games with the Cherries. Given the prices, we can once again be risk averse by backing Liverpool -0.25 on the Asian Handicap, meaning a draw will still see half our stake returned.

Stinch's Acca - Back my best bets in a 4-fold at 13/1

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