Premier League Saturday Tipsheet: How many lives do the Black Cats have? | OneFootball

English Premier League

Stinch is back with his best bets for the Premier League on Saturday

Odds compiler and football tipster Mark Stinchcombe shares his picks and insights for every Premier League game on Saturday of Matchday 15...

Aston Villa v Arsenal Tip - Back a tight game

Aston Villa v ArsenalSaturday, 12:30Live on TNT Sports

This will be a top-of-the-table clash on Saturday lunchtime as third place Aston Villa host leaders Arsenal. Villa are in terrific form having won eight of their last nine league matches. It's far cry from earlier in the season where they failed to win any of their first five games to find themselves in the relegation zone. A timely reminder to back a manager that has brought success. Having said that, Villa have overachieved during this period with expected points from their 24 point haul at just 12.14pts. Thus Arsenal should not fear this trip despite the hosts form. The Gunners are unbeaten in their last 11 Premier League matches, keeping a clean sheet in six. And that's what I'm envisaging here, a tight game given the hectic schedule with rest-and-rotation playing it's part, plus Arteta's propensity for low scoring away games. Eigthteen of their last 27 away matches have seen Under 2.5 goals since the beginning of last season (67%) and combining that with Arsenal avoiding defeat gives us an odds-against shot. Six of the last seven meetings at Villa Park between these two have seen under 2.5 goals.

Bournemouth v Chelsea Tip - Back Over 2.5 goals

Bournemouth v ChelseaSaturday, 15:00

It's now four defeats in five for Bournemouth as this current period tries to derail their season. They sat second before this run just to show how tight and competitive the league is this season with just nine points separating Man City in second to Bournemouth in 14th. One thing we will always get with the Cherries is goals, with seven of their last nine seeing Over 2.5 goals winners. Chelsea's strike rate is even better having seen three or more goals in 14 of their last 18 games across all competitions (78%). With Cole Palmer back in the squad too, there's more chance of a goal heavy game than the odds suggest.

Everton v Nottingham Forest Tip - Back Under 2.5 goals

Everton v Nottingham ForestSaturday, 15:00

I wonder if now is time to roll the dice (or rather Dyche) on Under 2.5 goals in a Premier League match between managers David Moyes and Sean Dyche. Of course, this is the return of former Everton boss in Dyche who I'm sure who would love nothing more than a classic smash and grab at the new Hill Dickinson stadium. Indeed after a few goal-heavy games for Forest, it's now back-to-back Under 2.5 goals matches, making it five of his nine in-charge. Crucially in my mind, only two of them have seen both teams score which is very Dyche-esque. In 41 matches at Everton, his matches averaged 2.66 goals per-game and in 425 matches at Burnley, a much longer sample, his matches averaged just 2.44 goals per-game.

For David Moyes, along with Arsenal and Sunderland, Everton's 36% strike rate for Under 2.5 goals is the lowest in the Premier League. In all they've faced each other 11 times through their careers with seven finishing with less than three goals.

Man City v Sunderland Tip - Back Haaland to score multiple goals

Man City v SunderlandSaturday, 15:00

100 Premier League goals. That's the return for Erling Haaland in just 111 appearances. The fastest centurion, doing it quicker than previous record holder Alan Shearer by 13 games. The breakdown reads 71 with his left foot, 17 with his head, 11 with his right foot and one by other body part. He is an absolute machine and his record this season now reads 20 goals in 18 games across league and Europe. I think this could be the match to back him for even more despite Sunderland's impressive start to the season.

The Black Cats are conceding the third most shots per-game this season (15.1 per-game) and are the biggest overachievers when you compare their actual goals conceded versus their expected goals (14 v 20.29). Essentially you cannot continue to concede lots of shots and not expect to concede multiple goals. They were made to work hard at Anfield and going to Man City just three days later is not ideal, particularly with the hosts having an extra days rest.

Newcastle v Burnley Tip - How to back a home win at 11/10

Newcastle v BurnleySaturday, 15:00

It's now five straight defeats in a row for Burnley who find themselves four points adrift of Premier League safety. Overall it's 10 defeats in their 14 games this season and it's no surprise when you look at the figures. They've conceded at least two goals in five of their last six matches, which stems from conceding the most shots in the league (16.0 per-game) and the most expected goals (32.53). Going forward is also an issue, with Burnley having the fewest shots (8.2 per-game), resulting in the second lowest xG (12.70), exacerbated by the fact they're having the lowest possession in the division (41.1%).

So we have to decide how to make 1/4 Newcastle pay. I think the way to do it is to add Under 3.5 goals to give us an 11/10 shot with the main thinking that we're in a very busy schedule and we've already seen Eddie Howe rest and rotate some of his big players. Indeed, Newcastle rank mid-table for goals scored and xG generated, and five of their six wins versus Premier League opposition have come in this fashion this season.

Tottenham v Brentford Tip - Back goals, goals, goals

Tottenham v BrentfordSaturday, 15:00

It's the Thomas Frank derby! And wow does he need a reaction from his players after recent results have the left the side sat in 11th. It's now five defeats in their last eight games across all competitions with just a 4-0 win over a mediocre Copenhagen side to show for it. They're conceding a lot of goals, at least two in their last four league games, meaning seven of their last eight have registered Over 2.5 goals winners. They've a 71% strike rate for the season for three or more goals, which along with Leeds, is the best in the league. Brentford are always good for a goals bet in my mind, given they've scored 21 goals yet conceded 22. They've kept just two clean sheets all season under rookie manager Keith Andrews, meaning eight of their last 12 have seen Over 2.5 goals winners.

Leeds v Liverpool Tip - Back Overs on Saturday night

Leeds v LiverpoolSaturday, 17:30Live on Sky Sports

I've already mentioned Leeds and their propensity for goals, so it should be no surprise which direction I'm going in here, especially coming up against a ropey Liverpool defence. There have been Over 2.5 goals scored in eight of Leeds' last nine Premier League games and 71% for the season as discussed. Liverpool have seen three or more goals in 64% of their games, with that figure rising to 71% away from home. Like Brentford previously, they've scored 21, yet conceded 21, and we know if everything finally clicks upfront, they are capable of clearing this line by themselves, against a defence that's conceded two or more in seven of their last nine games.

Now read more Premier League tips

Recommended bets

Back Arsenal or Draw & Under 2.5 goals @ 11/10

Back Over 2.5 goals in Bournemouth v Chelsea @ 1.70

Back Under 2.5 goals in Everton v Nottingham Forest @ 1.76

Back Erling Haaland to score two or more goals @ 2/1

Back Newcastle to win & Under 3.5 goals @ 11/10

Back Over 2.5 goals in Tottenham v Brentford @ 1.87