Premier League Tips: Matchday 17 best bets involving Liverpool, Man Utd and Chelsea | OneFootball

English Premier League Tips

Mark has found three plays for MD17 in the Premier League

Mark O'Haire's latest Notebook pinpoints three punting angles to follow across MD17 of the Premier League...

Football... Only Bettor. Listen to the latest episode now.

Newcastle v Chelsea: Magpies make Asian Handicap appeal

Newcastle v ChelseaSaturday 20 December, 12:30

Newcastle bounced back from their drab derby defeat against Sunderland to reach the League Cup semi-finals in midweek. The Magpies resume Premier League duty against Chelsea this weekend and despite the tight turnaround, Eddie Howe's outfit hold plenty of appeal as 0 & +0.5 Asian Handicap underdogs at 1.82.

The Toon have toppled Chelsea in their last three St James' Park meetings in the EPL. The Mapgies have already downed Man City here this term while Arsenal and Liverpool were both fortunate to escape with maximum points. Newcastle have now retuned W9-D2-L4 in their last 15 home fixtures against top-six teams, providing profit for our proposed play in 11 of 15.

Chelsea have the rest advantage of one day, as well as Cole Palmer and Moises Caicedo back in the fold. However, the Blues haven't often convinced against the league's elite, returning W3-D3-L3 against sides inside the top-13, wining once in four on their travels against teams outside of the bottom-five. Their record at top-half teams also concerns.

Since the start of 2023/24, Chelsea have claimed only four league victories in 19 trips to top-half teams (W4-D3-L12) providing more than enough ammunition to oppose the Blues as favourites on Tyneside.

Now read why Mark Stinchcombe is backing goals in Newcastle v Chelsea

Tottenham v Liverpool: Entertainment expected

Tottenham v LiverpoolSaturday 20 December, 17:30Live on Sky Sports

Tottenham versus Liverpool is the Premier League's most goal-heavy game in history and another entertaining encounter could be in the offing on Saturday evening. The last three meetings between the pair have produced 21 goals and with 14 of the last 16 head-to-head contests seeing Over 2.5 Goals bank, a repeat stands-out at the prices.

Over 2.5 & 3.0 Goals pays 1.88 and sees us make money should a minimum of three goals be scored - three goals exactly returns a half-stakes profit with four or more strikes delivering a full pay-out. Only two goals or fewer will see this bet sink.

Tottenham are in need of a response following their no-show at Nottingham Forest. Spurs have managed only six clean sheets in their last 46 home EPL fixtures since the start of 2023/24 - a massive 74% of those showdowns breached the Over 2.5 Goals barrier with an average of 3.34 goals per-game - 39% even featured 4+ goals.

Liverpool gave up 1.90 xG and 14 shots in their 2-0 success over Brighton last weekend with the Seagulls missing three Big Chances. Arne Slot's side still provide plenty of concern defensively and head to the capital having conceded multiple goals in 11 of their past 17 away league games, emphasising their backline frailties.

Nevertheless, both Spurs and Liverpool have combined to score in 27 of their collective 32 EPL outings this term with 21 of those tussles delivering at least Over 2.5 Goals. A repeat is available at a surprising 1.71 here but we'll be greedy and attack the higher line at 1.88 and hope the match escalates into a high-scoring shootout.

Aston Villa v Manchester United: Hosts to extend winning streak

Aston Villa v Manchester UnitedSunday 21 December, 16:30Live on Sky Sports

A team in crisis back in August, Aston Villa have undergone a remarkable turnaround to sit just three points off the Premier League summit. Fifteen wins in 17 across all competitions, nine victories on the spin, nine straight Villa Park triumphs - including the beating of both Arsenal and Manchester City - Unai Emery's outfit are in flying form.

So of course, I'm eager to support Aston Villa at 2.22 when they welcome Manchester United to fortress Villa Park on Sunday. The current run isn't sustainable for a title challenge, though Villa's home record commands huge respect - just one league loss in 2025 (W12-D4-L1) as only Man City have earned more home points this calendar year.

Villa have now played 59 home EPL games under Emery - they've won 64% of those and scored an average of 2.03 goals per-game here. Next they face a Man Utd side shorn of two key attacking contributors with Bryan Mbuemo and Amad Diallo both away at AFCON - the pair are amongst United's leaders for shots and chances created.

The Red Devils' attack is therefore weakened and their defence - one clean sheet all season - remains dodgy, giving up the fourth-most xG on the road and the second-most Big Chances. Rubin Amorim has presided over W6-D7-L9 on the road in league football, recording just two shutouts, and a streetwise Villa side should add further anguish.