Premier League Tips: MD20 best bets involving Man City, Man Utd and Brighton | OneFootball

English Premier League Tips

Mark has found three plays for MD20 in the Premier League

Mark O'Haire's latest Notebook pinpoints three punting angles to follow across MD20 of the Premier League including Man City v Chelsea...

Man City v Chelsea: Citizens to slay the Blues

Manchester City v ChelseaSunday 4 January, 16:30Live on Sky Sports

One win in seven Premier League games has seen Chelsea slide 15 points off the Premier League summit, resulting in Enzo Marasca's departure. Right now, the Blues are closer to 15th than third and whilst the Italian's exit wasn't all down to footballing reasons, it leaves the visitors in a state of flux ahead of a tough trip to The Etihad.

Moises Caicedo's suspension further complicates matters and Chelsea have tended to toil in recent contests with Man City, losing six of their last eight league meetings and returning W3-D2-L11 on their last 16 away days at The Etihad. The visitors have also claimed only four league victories in their last 20 away at top-half teams (W4-D4-L12).

With that in-mind, it makes sense to focus on Man City here. Pep Guardiola's posse were frustrated on Wearside in midweek, though the Citizens have won eight league games on the spin in front of their own supporters, scoring 3+ goals in seven of those showdowns. Man City can be backed to win this match at a reasonable 1.69.

However, head to the Asian Handicap market and Man City -0.5 & -1.0 pays 1.86. This position will see us profit should the Citizens seal top honours - we'll earn a half-stakes return should City win by exactly one goal with a full-stakes pay-out if the home side triumph by at least a two-goal margin.

Leeds v Man Utd: Oppose Red Devils on the road

Leeds v Manchester UnitedSunday 4 January, 12:30Live on TNT Sports

Leeds haven't been helped by the schedule, yet Daniel Farke's charges still hold plenty of appeal as underdogs at Elland Road against the auld enemy of Man Utd. The Whites rested and rotated in midweek yet still battled to a brave point at Anfield on Thursday night and now return home eager to bring the noise in the match that matters most.

Leeds are now unbeaten in six EPL outings and have been hugely impressive at Elland Road, ranking third on home xP and fifth in terms of home xG process. The Whites have won the npxG battle in eight of nine home dates despite already welcoming the likes of Aston Villa, Chelsea, Liverpool, Crystal Palace, Spurs and Newcastle.

Since altering their approach at half-time against Man City, Leeds have generated 1.97 xG per-game, giving up just 1.29 xG, roughly a 60% xG ratio return - that's top-four material. Yet Farke's outfit are underdogs at home to a Man Utd side that just cannot be trusted and make the journey following a dreadfully disappointing draw with Wolves.

Under Ruben Amorim's watch, the Red Devils have tabled only six triumphs in 23 away Premier League games, keeping only three clean sheets and conceding 1.65 goals per-game. This season, United are allowing the third-worst npxG figure on their travels and giving up the fifth-most Big Chances. Leeds 0.0 Asian Handicap appeals at 2.05.

Brighton v Burnley: Both to oblige at The Amex

Brighton v BurnleySaturday 3 January, 15:00

Brighton have slipped down the Premier League standings to 14th following a six-match winless run. The Seagulls are strong 1.50 favourites to end that barren streak when they entertain Burnley on Saturday, though a more eye-catching angle is available in the goals markets with Both Teams To Score trading at an appetising 1.92.

Why? Well, Fabien Hurzeler has presided over 28 Premier League matches at the Amex with Brighton and Albion have scored in 23 of those 28 dates. However, the hosts have also conceded in 23 of those 28 tussles, leading to 21 (75%) winning BTTS wagers - those matches averaged a hefty 2.96 goals per-game with 68% seeing 3+ strikes.

This term, Brighton have silenced only four of their 19 opponents and have allowed the sixth-most Big Chances at home despite a reasonable schedule. The Seagulls have conceded in home and away matches with West Ham, as well as against Wolves. That should provide plenty of encouragement for a Burnley side that's been in the goals...

The Clarets have scored in eight of nine away days, including trips to The Etihad, Villa Park, Old Trafford and St James' Park already. Scott Parker's strugglers have scored in 11 of their most recent 15 and head south having seen BTTS reward punters in eight of nine road trips, making a repeat at close to even-money a no-brainer bet.