Premier League Transfer Records: Hits, Misses & What the Data Tells Us | OneFootball

The introduction of transfer windows in professional football has increased the pressure on clubs to ensure they conduct positive business in the market.

Fans clamour for their club to splash the cash on transfers in pursuit of silverware, yet history has shown this methodology does not always deliver immediate results.

A 2009 study by authors Simon Kuper and Stefan Szymanski painted an intriguing picture about the link between transfer expenditure and on-field performance.

By analysing club finances in two periods that collectively spanned three decades, they discovered that salaries were more likely to influence a club’s results.

They found there was a 92 percent correlation between average wage bills and league position over a 19-year period from 1978 to 1997.

However, the figure was just 16% for single-year transfer spending, highlighting the yawning disparity between the two metrics.

They argued that considering a club’s transfer business over a more extended period would be more likely to paint an accurate picture of its link to on-field success.

With that in mind, read on as we look at the impact transfer dealings have in Europe’s top leagues to determine whether they actually make a difference.

New study supports previous research

Sports intelligence company Twenty First Group (TFG) recently used the pair’s research as the starting point for a deeper dive into transfer business in Europe’s top five leagues.

They assessed data covering the 2009/10 to 2024/25 seasons to determine the correlation between transfer spend over several consecutive seasons and points per game.

A correlation of zero indicates that there is no consistent linear relationship between transfer spend and points per game. In simple terms, spending more does not equate to more points.

By contrast, a correlation of one indicates a perfect linear relationship, where increases in spending are always matched by proportional gains in points-per-game.

The average correlation is calculated across every consecutive six-year period in the 15-year span, thus capturing medium-term trends rather than a single season skewing the results.

TFG’s study produced the following numbers:

The Premier League’s jump from 0.46 to 0.69 over the timeframe assessed is undoubtedly the key takeaway from the research.

TFG believes this demonstrates that patience is rewarded more in the Premier League than in any of the other big five European leagues.

English clubs are also more willing to invest in younger players, which generally does not always equate to delivering immediate success on the pitch.

The study also found that the Premier League is more unpredictable than the other competitions, which makes it more attractive to broadcasters.

TFG also supported what Kuper and Szymanski had previously reported by estimating that salaries account for up to 85% of the variance in a team’s year-on-year points tally.

By contrast, the transfer spending correlation does not match that figure even when the timeframe is extrapolated over six seasons.

Given what each of the studies revealed, it would be fair to say they are an eye-opener for supporters who view their club purely through the prism of their transfers.

This opens the door for an interlinked debate about clubs and their record signings. Are they all they are cracked up to be?

Record signings – hit or miss?

Incoming signings traditionally generate plenty of excitement among a club’s fanbase, particularly if the outlay sets a new record for financial outlay.

Here’s a look at the current incoming transfer record for each of the 20 Premier League clubs based on the base fee before any add-ons are triggered (statistics correct on July 3, 2025).

Viewed in isolation, the record fees paid by each Premier League club suggest that splashing the cash does not necessarily guarantee success.

While acknowledging that the judgments made in the ‘outcome’ column are subjective and could evolve over time, they paint an intriguing picture.

Of the so-called ‘Big Six’ clubs, only Tottenham Hotspur can claim their record signing has been a ‘hit’, and that viewpoint can be questioned.

Dominic Solanke scored 16 goals in 45 appearances for Tottenham in his first season after joining from Bournemouth – not bad, but not great.

However, five of his goals were in the Europa League, which Spurs eventually won after defeating Manchester United in the final in Bilbao.

Injuries did not help Solanke’s cause, but he deserves the benefit of the doubt after helping the club end their lengthy trophy drought.

It would be fair to say that the other five members of the ‘Big Six’ have had underwhelming results with their club record signings.

Arsenal’s acquisition of Declan Rice from West Ham United in 2023 was billed as the transfer that would usher in a new era of dominance for the club.

However, while Rice has produced some impressive performances, he has not been a consistent difference-maker for the club over the past couple of seasons.

That point was hammered home in the Champions League last term. Rice dominated against Real Madrid in the quarter-final, but was anonymous in the last-four tie against Paris Saint-Germain.

Based on the notion that transfer spend can be a slow-burner in terms of the results it delivers, Rice still has time to prove that he is worth the investment Arsenal made in him.

A similar point applies to Chelsea’s Enzo Fernandez, who edges out Moises Caicedo as their most expensive signing due to his higher base fee.

The Argentina midfielder took time to find his feet in England, but excelled in the second half of last season as Chelsea powered to the Europa Conference League title.

Manager Enzo Maresca has praised the progress Fernandez has made, and it would be no surprise if he helps the club achieve even more success over the next few years.

The two Manchester clubs have both been willing to pay substantial sums for players during transfer windows, but their respective results have been vastly different.

While Man City have won plenty of silverware, United have very little to show for their mind-boggling outlay on incoming players.

However, City and United are in the same boat regarding their most expensive signings, with both clubs shelling out massive sums on transfer flops.

Jack Grealish had the world at his feet when he joined City from Aston Villa in 2021, but he has not lived up to expectations despite the club winning numerous trophies.

Injuries and questionable lifestyle choices have hindered Grealish, and his days as a standout performer in the Premier League appear to be numbered.

In fairness to Grealish, he has not flopped quite as badly as Paul Pogba, who did little to justify the club’s decision to bring him back from Juventus in 2016.

Pogba’s poor attitude and inconsistent performances raised questions about United’s decision to re-sign him long before they cut their losses on him six years later.

Liverpool’s decision to smash their transfer record to sign Florian Wirtz from Bayer Leverkusen this summer has got their fans dreaming about the club embarking on a new era of domination.

However, they may be well advised to temper their expectations given how things worked out at the club for previous record signing Darwin Nunez.

The Uruguayan international was touted as Liverpool’s version of Erling Braut Haaland, but his lack of composure in front of goal has made those comparisons laughable.

By contrast, clubs such as Newcastle United and Nottingham Forest have had much better returns from their respective record signings.

Striker Alexander Isak has been a massive hit with the Magpies, while Elliot Anderson enjoyed a stellar first season in Forest’s midfield.

Patience is a virtue

As highlighted by the research studies detailed earlier and backed up by the assessment of club record fees, transfer spending does not guarantee immediate success in football.

However, when salaries and time are factored into the equation, big clubs inevitably have an advantage over rivals with lesser budgets.

That point is more pronounced in the Premier League, where clubs are more inclined to invest in signings they can develop rather than short-term fixes.

On that basis, players who currently fall into the ‘jury out’ category still have time to prove that they were worth the initial outlay their clubs made in them.

Liverpool fans will be able to take solace from this factor if Wirtz struggles to adapt to the demands of the Premier League in his first season.