Premier League Tuesday Tipsheet: Back Man Utd to wear down Wolves at 10/3 | OneFootball

English Premier League Tips

Stinch is back with his best bets for the Premier League MD19 on Tuesday

Odds compiler and football tipster Mark Stinchcombe shares his picks and insights for Premier League matchday 19 which kicks off on Tuesday...

Burnley v Newcastle Tip - Back low-scoring Newcastle win

Burnley v NewcastleTuesday, 19:30Live on Sky Sports

Despite two draws in-a-row, it's now nine games since Burnley won a Premier League match with seven defeats in that period. Their only wins have come against promoted Championship sides and Wolves to show the gulf in class.

The Clarets are conceding the most shots in the league and as a result the most expected goals. Going forward it's a similar story, having the second fewest shots and creating the third fewest expected goals.

Newcastle have won three of four against the bottom three but they can't be backed at short odds-on of 4/6 having only once away from home. Instead, let's back the Toon Army and Under 3.5 goals. Eight of Burnley's nine home games have seen fewer than four goals.

Chelsea v Bournemouth Tip - Clash should guarantee goals

Chelsea v BournemouthTuesday, 19:30Live on Sky Sports

It's nine games without a win in the Premier League for Bournemouth, leaving them 15 in the table. They are however, nine points clear of West Ham and the relegation zone, so perhaps there's no need to panic just yet. However, the impending departure of star man Antoine Semenyo may well ring alarm bells, with the attacker reportedly wanting his future resolved as soon as possible.

If this is Semenyo's last game for the club, what a fitting way it would be to go out with another goal heavy Cherries away game. After their 4-1 defeat at Brentford, 23 of their last 28 Premier League away games have seen Over 2.5 goals (82%).

Chelsea are also fantastic for a goal bet with 18 of their last 24 games across all competitions providing three or more goals (75%). The line is set at 2.75 so we're having to pay a slight tax but at least half our bet will win if we see three goals and it feels like that's where this game begins.

Nottingham Forest v Everton Tip - Back a low-scoring game

Nottingham Forest v EvertonTuesday, 19:30Live on Sky Sports

It's three games in a row Everton have failed to score in and it's no coincidence with the absences of Iliman Ndiaye and Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall. The pair are the club's joint top scorers with four goals and it's worrying when next in the list comes the likes of Michael Keane and Idrissa Gueye - another who is absent.

Recognised strikers Thierno Barry and Beto have just one goal each and it's impossible to be confident in Everton. It's a similar story for Nottingham Forest under Sean Dyche. In five of their last six games they've scored one or zero goals. A low-scoring fixture looks on the cards during a hectic period.

West Ham v Brighton Tip - Back another Hammers defeat

West Ham v BrightonTuesday, 19:30Live on Sky Sports

It seems to be going a little under radar with Wolves and Burnley's failings how much trouble West Ham United are in. No wins in seven and five points adrift of safety in 18th. They have problems at both ends of the pitch as they're the joint fourth lowest scorers in the league with just 19 goals in 18 games and at the other end they have the second worst defence with 36 conceded. It doesn't take a genius to work out if you're only scoring one a game and shipping two at the back, you're going to lose a lot of football matches.

There's not loads to get excited about for mid-table Brighton but they do have an excellent record against the Hammers being unbeaten in 16 of their last 17 matches across all competitions. We can back them in a manner that sees us only lose half our stake if the match finishes all square.

Arsenal v Aston Villa Tip - Back Arsenal in a tight clash

Arsenal v Aston VillaTuesday, 20:15Live on Sky Sports

The Aston Villa machine continues to march on with eight straight Premier League wins to go within just three points of league leaders Arsenal. It's an incredible run but there are signs of cracks with their last seven victories all coming by just one goal.

Having won 12 of their last 13 league games further back to take 36 points in this period - the most in the league - expected points actually only has them taking 18 points, which is the equivalent of W4D63. This overachievement of 18 points is enormous when you consider the next most is Sunderland with six and regression to the mean is likely due very soon.

Arsenal have got the best defence in the league with just 11 conceded as a result of the best expected goals against in the division, so I think the Gunners will ultimately edge the clash as their 4/7 price suggests. Fifteen of their 18 games have finished Under 3.5 goals (83%) which boosts the bet to 11/10 and that looks the way to go.

Man Utd v Wolves Tip - Back Man Utd to prevail after the break

Man Utd v WolvesTuesday, 20:15Live on Sky Sports

I felt hard done by at Anfield on Saturday afternoon having backed Wolves to be level at half-time and lose the game only for Liverpool to open the scoring in the forty-first minute and go on to win. As a result, I have to go back in again on a bet that's won in seven of their last eight games when we can get 10/3 and Man Utd are only 1/3 to win the match.

Eemember Wolves have lost their last 11 Premier League matches and conceded at least two goals in nine of those. However, with Bruno Fernandes injured and both Bryan Mbuemo and Amad Diallo away at the African Cup of Nations, it could take the home side longer to break down Wolves.

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