Premier League Wednesday Tipsheet: Back cards galore at the Etihad | OneFootball

English Premier League Tips

Stinch is back with his best bets for the Premier League MD21 on Wednesday

Odds compiler and football tipster Mark Stinchcombe shares his picks and insights for all eight Premier League games for matchday 21 on Wednesday...

Bournemouth v Tottenham Tip - Sorry Cherries not to win again

Bournemouth v TottenhamWednesday, 19:30Live on Sky Sports

Despite giving Arsenal a scare last time out, Bournemouth have now gone 11 Premier League games without a win. As a result, they've dropped to 15th and despite still being nine points clear of the drop, there must be a few worried people at the club if the three sides in the relegation zone manage to get their acts together. Tottenham are only four points above Bournemouth, but they've at least won three of their last seven games across all competitions to show signs that they know how to win and it's only two defeats in this period - one with only nine men. One thing you can't put a figure on is confidence and Bournemouth's must be pretty low, meaning the 11/10 on them to win the game is too short. My advice? Go to the Befair Exchange and take a chance on Spurs on the Asian Handicap.

Brentford v Sunderland Tip - Back Brentford goals

Brentford v SunderlandWednesday, 19:30Live on Sky Sports

In this matchup, I don't necessarily want to pick a winner. Sunderland have suffered just four defeats this season, the joint second fewest, but home side Brentford have been terrific going forward and the Black Cats may have used all of their nine lives in the first half of the season. Brentford have scored two or more goals in six of their nine home games under Keith Andrews and further back it's nine of their last 12. Sunderland have seven players away at AFCON and it's now just one win in seven, scoring just four goals. At the other end, they're conceding the third most shots this season and are the biggest overachievers defensively with 30.26 xG conceded versus their actual amount of 19. Brentford are creating the fifth best xG going forward at 1.77 per-game and it could be a great matchup for them.

Crystal Palace v Aston Villa Tip - Back Villa with added security

Crystal Palace v Aston VillaWednesday, 19:30Live on Sky Sports

Aston Villa are the form side in the country having won 18 of their last 21 games across all competitions, including 13 of their last 15 Premier League games. Crystal Palace on the other hand are in terrible form, following five league games without a win, seven across all competitions, including five defeats. Further back, they've lost seven of their last 12 and there hasn't been much home comforts this season with only four wins in 15 at Selhurst Park. They're also missing lots of attacking and creative talent in Ismaila Sarr, Daniel Munoz, Daichi Kamada and Eddie Nketiah and even before factoring that in, they've still only scored 22 goals in 20 games this season. This will be Palace's 15th game in the last 47 days and it seems to be taking it's toll. Given the prices, we can actually back Aston Villa with the security of a draw.

Everton v Wolves Tip - Back Toffees to fail to fire

Everton v WolvesWednesday, 19:30Live on Sky Sports

Everton at 3/4 to win a Premier League match right now? No thank you. Since top scorers Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall got injured and then Iliman Ndiaye left for AFCON, it's just one win in five, including three defeats, including failing to beat relegation-threatened Burnley and failing to score three times. Rob Edwards finally broke Wolves' winless hoodoo with a comfortable 3-0 win over West Ham and perhaps they have turned a corner with performances suggesting so. In Edwards' nine games, Wolves have collected 10.45 expected points - 6.45 more than their actual amount of four. In the same period, only three sides have collected fewer than Everton. Backing Wolves +0.75 on the Asian Handicap, means if they avoid defeat our whole bet wins and if they lose by a single goal we'll get half our stake back.

Fulham v Chelsea Tip - No bet

Fulham v ChelseaWednesday, 19:30Live on Sky Sports

With Liam Rosenior in advanced talks to become Chelsea manager at time of writing, it makes sense to sit this one out given so many unknowns and especially with all the other action on Wednesday night. Even if he's appointed, he might not take charge and then we would only have one Chelsea match to go off under Under-21s head coach in Calum McFarlane, and that's a completely different profile of match away at title challengers Man City. Fulham are in decent form at the moment having won six of their last 11 games with only three defeats in this period. However, the market is respecting this with Chelsea odds-against at 11/10.

Man City v Brighton Tip - Back cards, cards, cards

Man City v BrightonWednesday, 19:30Live on Sky Sports

Brighton are somewhat of a bogey team for Manchester City of late with the Pep Guardiola's side having only won two of their last six meetings. As a result, it might be more competitive than the odds suggest, particularly in the cards department. Brighton are the second worst disciplined side in the league with 49 cards at an average of 2.45 per-game and Man City are the joint 11th with 34 cards at an average of 1.70 per-game  - a Man City side that were the most disciplined team last season. Brighton games are the best in the league for Over 3.5 cards with a 75% strike rate and six of City's 10 home games have seen four or more cards. Last time referee Thomas Bramall refereed Man City, he handed out six cards including a red for both sides, when they played Bournemouth at the end of last season. Indeed backing Over 3.5 cards is a bet that has won in seven of their last ten meetings.

Burnley v Man Utd Tip - Back Man Utd to flop again

Burnley v Man UtdWednesday, 20:15Live on Sky Sports

How does the sacking of Ruben Amorim change things at Man Utd? In the short-term I'm going to suggest very little given the amount of players they have unavailable. Going forward Mbeumo, Fernandes, Amad and Mount are out and defensively Maguire and de Ligt are too. That's 18 of the 34 goals they've scored this season, meaning a whopping 53% of their goals are missing. Cracks have been there over the last four games since the AFCON started, with just one win and only four goals scored. Burnley have been poor this season but have only lost by more than one goal in three of 10 home games and they face a Utd side with just three wins in 11. Overall the Red Devils have won just two games this season by more than one goal and we can back Burnley +1.0 Asian Handicap at 1.73 meaning it's money back if they lose by a goal, with a win if they avoid defeat.

Newcastle v Leeds Tip - Back goals, goals, goals

Newcastle v LeedsWednesday, 20:15Live on Sky Sports

Two goals galore sides contest the final matchup on Wednesday night. Over 2.5 goals has been a winner in 10 of Newcastle's last 13 Premier League games and looking further back across all competitions, it's 18 of their last 25 matches that have been winners (72%). For Leeds, 10 of their last 15 overall have produced three or more goals and despite steadying the ship with just one defeat in six, this defence can be got at having conceded two or more goals in eight of their last 15 league games. 70% of Newcastle's home game this season have seen this bet win.

Now back my best tips in a 5-fold at 16/1!

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