Previewing World Cup 2026: Italy Prediction, Player Form, and Historical Context

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Football Italia

·18 July 2025

Previewing World Cup 2026: Italy Prediction, Player Form, and Historical Context

Two decades after their most recent win in 2006, Italy hopes to break their streak of bad luck and finally qualify for the FIFA World Cup again. They failed to do so in Russia in 2018 and Qatar in 2022. And before those, they were eliminated in the group stages in 2010 in South Africa and 2014 in Brazil.

However, they did not struggle as much at other competitions. In the meantime, Italians have won medals, most notably at the 2020 Euros, and have secured two third-place finishes in Nations Leagues. In 2022, they were the runners-up in the Cup of Champions (Finalissima).

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As of now, they are competing in qualifiers for UEFA Group I, aiming to advance from the group and secure a spot in the competition held in the USA, Canada, and Mexico next summer. Can they do it, and what are their chances? Are the players in good form? Read on to learn more about the World Cup 2026 odds of Italy and whether they can do it this time around.

Italy Qualifiers, Odds, Form

REGGIO NELL’EMILIA, ITALY – JUNE 9: Giacomo Raspadori of Italy scores the opening goal during the FIFA 2026 Qualifier between Italy and Moldova at Mapei Stadium – Citta’ del Tricolore on June 09, 2025 in Reggio nell’Emilia, Italy. (Photo by Alessandro Sabattini/Getty Images)

So far, Italy is in the middle of the table with two games played. They won against Moldova 2-0 and lost to Norway 3-0. This match convinced the federation to sack Luciano Spalletti and replace him with 2006 World Cup winner Gennaro Gattuso.

The Azzurri have yet to play them again, as well as both Israel and Estonia twice. They have a good chance to qualify both directly and through the playoffs, as the first or second seed, respectively. Their next games are at home against Estonia on September 5 and against Israel on September 8. In October, they travel to Estonia on October 11 and host Israel on October 14. Finally, they play in Moldova on November 13 and host Norway on November 16.

As for the odds, Norway is leading the odds with 1.67 to win the group, with Italy second at 2.2. Other teams are without realistic chances, but the Azzurri have fumbled before. Israel is at 26.00 odds as their biggest potential obstacle, other than the Norwegians. When it comes to early favorites to win the 2026 World Cup, Spain (+500), France (+600), Brazil (+650), England (+700), and Argentina (+800) lead the odds. Make sure to check back on Sportsbet frequently as we get closer and closer to next June.

REGGIO NELL’EMILIA, ITALY – JUNE 9: Gianluigi Donnarumma of Italy during the FIFA 2026 Qualifier between Italy and Moldova at Mapei Stadium – Citta’ del Tricolore on June 09, 2025 in Reggio nell’Emilia, Italy. (Photo by Alessandro Sabattini/Getty Images)

Italy has its chances and is the favourite in most meetings. Their squad has played well this season in their respective clubs, especially their goalkeeper captain Gianluigi Donnarumma with his PSG. Most of them play in Serie A with Napoli, Inter, and Atalanta leading the way. Their core is young and hungry and should prove successful in the qualifiers. It should be a fun fall international break for Italians as their youngsters make the final push.

Italy’s History at the FIFA World Cup

BERLIN – JULY 09: Gennaro Gattuso (L) and Fabio Grosso (R) of Italy celebrate with the World Cup trophy during the FIFA World Cup Germany 2006 Final match between Italy and France at the Olympic Stadium on July 9, 2006, in Berlin, Germany.

(Photo by Ben Radford/Getty Images)

For some historical context and a look back at the team’s past performances, what better way to try to predict their success at next year’s competition than to remind ourselves what they have already done? Overall, Italy is among the most successful national teams in the history of the FIFA World Cup. They are consistently among the favourites, sometimes as heavy favourites and other times a team with potential for a deep push. They have had disappointments with some of their strongest squads, and have won against heavy opposition and as a slight underdog. Here is a deep look at their record from their first to last appearance.

Out of 22 tournaments in history, Italy has appeared 18 times. They have won it four times, were runners-up twice, third place once, and fourth place once. This means they have seven medals, which makes them one of the best. However, they have recently experienced huge disappointments, as they did not qualify for the last two editions. The football nation, such as them, has a lot of hope for the 2026 Cup in the USA, Canada, and Mexico, so here’s hoping they leave a good impression and get back on track at the biggest stage.

1930 – Italy did not participate in the first World Cup due to distance, cost of travel, and disputes over organisation.
1934 – In their first appearance, they were the hosts and won the title against Czechoslovakia 2-1 after extra time.
1938 – Italy became the first team to defend the title as they beat Hungary 4-2.
1950 – There were no competitions in 1942 and 1946, and after the war, they were eliminated in the group stage.
1954 – For the second time in a row, the team failed to progress through the group stage.
1958 – It was the first, and up until recently, the only time, that the team did not qualify following a shocking elimination by Northern Ireland.
1962 – They were knocked out early in the group; the infamous Chile match happened.
1966 – Again, Italy did not advance past the group stage, losing to North Korea, a major embarrassment.
1970 – The tournament saw them reach the finals, losing 4-1 to Brazil. The semi-final against Germany was a classic as they won 4-3 after extra time.
1974 – The Italian side underperformed throughout the group stage matches and failed to advance.
1978 – After a strong campaign and a promising push, they lost 2-1 to Brazil in the bronze medal match and came fourth.
1982 – The team waited for a long time to get back to glory, and it finally happened when they beat West Germany 3-1. Paolo Rossi’s heroics remain memorable.
1986 – Italy got through the group stage, but lost to France in the Round of 16. Up until then, it was either group stage eliminations or direct medal contention.
1990 – As the hosts, they lost on penalties to Argentina in the semis and ended up winning bronze 2-1 against England.
1994 – After a prolonged, scoreless game in the finals against Brazil, Italy lost on penalties and finished with the silver, their second consecutive medal.
1998 – In the quarterfinals, it was France who eliminated them on penalties.
2002 – The infamous match in the Round of 16 against the hosts South Korea saw controversial refereeing and Italy losing 2-1 after extra time.
2006 – Their fourth and most recent title came in Germany after beating France on penalties. The match featured Zidane’s infamous headbutt on Materazzi.
2010 – It was the beginning of the struggles for the national team as they were eliminated in the group stage, failing to win a match and finishing last.
2014 – Again, they were eliminated in the group stage alongside England, as Costa Rica and Uruguay went through.
2018 – Shockingly, the team failed to qualify after losing to Sweden in the playoff.
2022 – The struggles continued as Italy lost to North Macedonia.

Most Memorable Moments and Records in Italy’s World Cup History

In 1934 in Italy, the team was managed by Vittorio Pozzo and led by Giuseppe Meazza. In 1938, in France, they became back-to-back champions, and Pozzo remains the only manager with two World Cups. In 1982 in Spain, Paolo Rossi’s resurgence carried them as they beat Brazil, Poland, and West Germany. In 2006, in Germany, Cannacaro’s leadership and the iconic penalty series over France capped off an amazing generation of players with the trophy.

As for the biggest single moments in their history, there were a few. In 1970, the Game of the Century was played in the semifinal against West Germany, a 4-3 win after extra time. In 1982, Rossi’s hat trick versus Brazil marked a legendary comeback after his betting scandal. Marco Tardelli’s goal and celebration in the 1982 final are among the most iconic moments in sport. Roberto Baggio’s miss in the 1994 final remains a heartbreak in the shootout against Brazil. Zidane’s headbutt and red card in the 2006 final against France preceded the penalties.