PSG v Bayern: Back in-form Bayern to make a statement | OneFootball

PSG v Bayern MunichTuesday 04 November, 20:00Live on TNT Sports

PSG raising their game for Champions League duty

The European champions PSG are in a curious position as coach Luis Enrique looks to evolve the team that swept all before it in the second half of last season. In Ligue 1, the capital club are only two points ahead of closest challengers Marseille and Lens, but there is a sense that domestic duty is an endless series of lessons on how to break a low block.

The weekend's 1-0 win over Nice was a great example. Franck Haise's team had just 23.5% possession and two shots on target, and nearly got out of Dodge with a point, only for PSG supersub Goncalo Ramos to head home a last-gasp winner.

In the Champions League, PSG have been able to deliver a higher class of performance. Luis Enrique's team demolished Atalanta 4-0, put on arguably their best display of the campaign in a 2-1 success at Barcelona, and then won a crazy match 7-2 at Bayer Leverkusen.

Ousmane Dembele is still struggling with a hamstring problem, and is unlikely to start here. Desire Doué is once again sidelined by injury, while centre-back Ilya Zabarnyi is suspended after a somewhat harsh red card against Bayer Leverkusen.

Kompany deserves new deal and plenty of credit

When Vincent Kompany was named as Bayern Munich boss, a lot of the reaction in UK media was based on the fact he had just failed spectacularly to avoid relegation from the Premier League with Burnley. It was facile to put the two together, and a fundamental misunderstanding of what Bayern saw in the Belgian.

No-one is pretending that Kompany, who has just signed an extended contract, was Bayern's first choice to replace Thomas Tuchel. They wanted to hire Xabi Alonso, who had knocked them off their perch with Bayer Leverkusen, but he went to Real Madrid. Moves for Oliver Glasner and Ralf Rangnick fell through, and a return to Bavaria for Germany boss Julian Nagelsmann never got off the ground.

However, in Kompany Bayern were able to build a bridge back to the halcyon days of Pep Guardiola's tenure. Kompany had worked successfully under Guardiola as a player, he had some of his tactical traits, and his playing career commanded respect. Some of that career had been spent in Germany with Hamburg, so his German language skills were another plus.

Kompany regained the Bundesliga title with room to spare in his first season, but it wasn't a universally positive picture. The Champions League had featured sobering defeats at Barcelona, Aston Villa and Feyenoord, while Celtic gave the Bavarian giants a scare in the playoff round. Eventual finalists Inter ended the European dream in the last eight. In the DFB Pokal, Bayern were beaten at home by Leverkusen.

This season, Bayern look to have slightly dialled down the level of risk they take in their attacking play, and they've done that without sacrificing goalscoring power. They have made an unprecedented start to the season, winning their first 15 games across four different competitions. Across those 15 victories, Bayern have scored a staggering 54 goals and conceded just 10.

The front four is terrifying, even without the injured Jamal Musiala. Serge Gnabry has really stepped up in Musiala's absence (he scored his fourth goal of the season in Saturday's 3-0 win over Leverkusen), Michael Olisé has been the best winger in Germany since arriving from Crystal Palace, Luis Diaz has scored eight competitive goals since joining from Liverpool, and Harry Kane is one of the best strikers on the planet.

Kane, Olisé and Diaz were all rested at the weekend, and should all return to the starting XI here.

Bayern may not win, but they can avoid defeat

Given the attacking firepower of these sides, the market is expecting a boatload of goals, but I'm not entirely convinced. The PSG attack has been weakened by injuries, and on the Bayern side of things I think Kompany is trying to be a bit less gung-ho in these big matches.

When the teams met in the summer's Club World Cup quarter-finals, PSG were 2-0 winners in a tight game. Both of these teams like to dominate the ball, and there'll be a healthy dose of mutual respect.

I'll go for a 17/10 double here on the Betfair Sportsbook by combining Bayern/Draw Double Chance and Under 3.5 Goals. The addition of German international centre-back Jonathan Tah seems to have made Bayern a bit more secure, and given their sky-high confidence I think they can avoid defeat.

This combination gets 0-0 and 1-1 draws on our side, as well as 1-0, 2-0 or 2-1 wins for Bayern.