PSV v Arsenal Champions League Tips: History to repeat in 13/2 draw | OneFootball

UEFA Champions League

Mikel Arteta could find it a testing night in the away leg

Arsenal could face a tough night away to PSV on Tuesday in the Champions League last 16 but the Gunners can grind out a draw, says Dave Tindall...

Arsenal v PSVTuesday 04 March, 20:00

PSV proving themselves in Europe

Arsenal have fallen behind in their domestic title race and the same thing is going on with PSV in the Dutch Eredivisie.

Defeat away to Go Ahead Eeagles (2-3) saw them slip eight points behind leaders Ajax at the top of the table and that will be hugely difficult to claw back.

But this could still be a memorable season for them in Europe.

In the giant 36-team Champions League table, PSV finished 14th, winning four of their matches, drawing two and losing two.

That sent the Dutch side into a playoff with Juventus and, against the odds, PSV came through. After losing the first leg 2-1 in Italy, they produced a 2-1 win of their own in the Philips Stadion before Ryan Flamingo struck in extra-time to send them through.

Gunners firing blanks

Arsenal have been strong in Europe this season and only Liverpool accumulated more points in the group stage.

Mikel Arteta's men won six of their eight matches, drawing one and losing one to end in third place in 19 points.

When the draw was made, it seemed they'd got the better deal by being paired with PSV. However, should they progress, the Gunners could run into Real Madrid in the quarter-finals.

But looking too far ahead could be dangerous. Arsenal have run out of strikers, the goals have completely dried up and they've fallen a whopping 13 points behind Liverpool in the title race.

And yet this market gives them a decent chance for glory in a tournament they've never won. In the current Champions League betting they're fourth favourites at 8.8 on the exchange.

Are PSV being seriously underrated?

Despite their troubles in attack, Arsenal are just 2/9 to progress to the last eight. Which means value seekers will certainly be pondering a punt on PSV to qualify at 16/5.

For this opening leg in the Netherlands, PSV are 13/5 for the win. Arsenal trade at 11/10 while The Draw is 12/5.

Again, it's easy to think PSV are too big. There are two very obvious reasons: their home form and Arsenal's depleted frontline.

PSV are unbeaten at home in the Eredivisie this season with nine wins and three draws, scoring 40 goals and conceding 10. Indeed, they haven't lost a home league game since late 2022.

Even if we dismiss that, it's harder to argue against their Champions League form at the Philips Stadion this season.

In their final four home games in the CL, they beat Girona 4-0, Shakhtar 3-2, Liverpool 3-2 and Juventus 3-1 (aet).

Arsenal go into the game having failed to score against West Ham (0-1) and Nottingham Forest (0-0).

This could be a difficult night for Arteta and his team.

Low-scoring draw appeals

The last time this pair met on Dutch soil, their Group B clash in December 2023 finished 1-1. They've met eight times in total and half of those have ended in a draw. Arsenal have won three and PSV one.

In other words, the Gunners have had trouble in this fixture. In the last three head-to-heads in the Netherlands, PSV are unbeaten due to scorelines of 1-1, 1-0 and 1-1.

And perhaps another 1-1 makes the most sense here.

The hosts are a real threat going forward, score plenty and have been excellent at home in Europe this season.

Arsenal have failed to score in their last two games but have enough about them to find a way here. And with PSV struggling badly to keep clean sheets (just one in the last 14), the likelihood of that grows.

Add it all up and a repeat of recent history in this fixture makes sense. It'll be surely more than satisfactory for Arteta who will fancy his team to get it done in the second leg.

Ex-Spurs man worth a look

It's not easy to home in on an Arsenal scorer when it comes to Bet Builders. Will Raheem Sterling play as a false nine? Will the Mikel Merino Experiment (coming to a prog rock festival near you) be given another try?

Perhaps a set-piece holds the key although the goals have vanished in that department too lately.

For PSV, there are better options.

Ivan Perisic, a former Spurs player of course, scored in both legs against Juventus while Ismail Saibari fired home in PSV's last two home Champions League ties (Liverpool and Juve).

They're attractively priced too and Perisic to score in a draw is around 17/1.

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Recommended bets

1pt - Back 1-1 draw @ 7.4

Staked: 53pts

Returned: 44.47pts

P/L: -8.53pts

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