Qarabag v Newcastle: Back Baku to host goals | OneFootball

UEFA Champions League

Newcastle face stiff opposition in Baku this week

Newcastle are bidding to reach the last 16 of the Champions League, and Kevin Hatchard expects the first leg of their playoff against Qarabag to feature goals.

Qarabag v Newcastle UnitedWednesday 18 February, 17:45

Qarabag have smashed all expectations

Perennial Azerbaijani champions Qarabag didn't come into this season's Champions League as European novices. During Bayer Leverkusen's double-winning campaign under Xabi Alonso, it was Qarabag who nearly knocked them out of the Europa League, only for the German side to save themselves with a late goal. Gurban Gurbanov's team have plenty of continental games and wins under their collective belt.

However, there's no doubt that by reaching the knockout phase of European football's VIP club, Qarabag have outdone themselves. They started off the campaign with an extraordinary 3-2 win at Benfica, a game that saw them recover from a 2-0 deficit in Lisbon. They followed that up with a 2-0 win over Copenhagen, and the other points they needed came from a battling draw with Chelsea and a fine comeback win over Eintracht Frankfurt.

As you would perhaps expect, seven of Qarabag's ten points were collected on home soil, although home soil is something of a stretch. Qarabag don't play Champions League games in their Azersun Arena, but in the Tofiq Bahramov stadium in Baku. Yes, that's the Tofiq Bahramov from England's World Cup final win in 1966.

Qarabag have some key attacking players who have really delivered in this tournament so far. Colombian forward Camilo Duran has scored four goals, Cape Verde's Leandro Andrade has scored three times, and 34-year-old stalwart Abdellah Zoubir has sparkled.

Qarabag have no major injury concerns for this game, and Gurbanov can field his strongest side.

Howe still trying to solve Magpies puzzle

Consistency is a quality that eludes many teams and many coaches, and you can add Eddie Howe and this season's Newcastle to that list. The team's longest winning streak in this campaign has been three matches, and they have only managed to string together more than one victory on three occasions.

The main reason for that lack of consistency has been the team's poor away form, which has tended to undo much of the good work done at St. James' Park, and a glut of injury issues hasn't done Howe any favours either. Although Newcastle have actually won their last two away games (they beat Spurs 2-1 in the league and then Aston Villa in the FA Cup), they have only tallied five road victories in 19 attempts this term.

Newcastle reached the semi-finals of the League Cup, are into the fifth round of the FA Cup and are favourites to make the last 16 of the Champions League, so it is still a largely positive picture, and Howe seems to have the widespread backing of the fans and players. The concern is the Premier League campaign, which has seen Newcastle slip eight points off the pace for a top-five finish.

Newcastle are definitely without influential skipper Bruno Guimaraes because of a hamstring injury, while Joelinton and Lewis Miley could feature but are both carrying knocks. Tino Livramento and Fabian Schar are also struggling with injuries.

Goals on the Baku menu

We can get a price of 1.92 here for Both Teams To Score, and given Qarabag's swashbuckling nature in this competition, that's a price that leaps off the page.

Five of Qarabag's eight league phase games featured at least one goal from both teams, and six of them saw an Over 2.5 Goals bet land. If you look at the four games in Baku, they ended 2-0, 2-2, 2-4 and 3-2.

Newcastle have seen a BTTS bet land in their last six outings in all competitions, and there were at least two goals in all of their eight league phase matches in the Champions League. They scored in all four league phase away games, but only kept one clean sheet.

Duran's the man

We can get a nice price of 10/11 for Qarabag striker Camilo Duran to have a shot on target, something he's managed in six of his eight Champions League matches this term.

I'll double that up with Harvey Barnes to have a shot on target for Newcastle, with takes us up to 7/5 on the Bet Builder. Barnes has played eight Champions League games this term, and has had a shot on target in seven of them. He has racked up five goals in the competition already.

It's worth noting that the Safe Sub feature is in operation for this game, so if either Barnes or Duran are subbed, your bet rolls on to whoever replaces them.

Recommended bets