Raya v Donnarumma: Arsenal, Man City keepers’ weaknesses exposed? | OneFootball

David Raya and Gianluigi Donnarumma are playing key roles in Arsenal and Manchester City’s title battle. But are both susceptible to particular shots?

With the Gunners and City going head to head at the top of the Premier League, we’re all looking for the strengths and weaknesses that could make a difference in the title race.

One obvious area to study is each side’s goal and the keepers guarding them.

Few would disagree that Raya and Donnarumma have both played their part in Arsenal and City’s ascent towards the summit. And each have come into this title battle in different contexts.

It was suggested before this season that Arsenal would have to upgrade their goalkeeper if they ever wanted to make the leap from perennial runners-up to champions, but Mikel Arteta has stuck by Raya.

Pep Guardiola did change his keeper…and his entire philosophy. City swapped the best goalkeeping playmaker for one of the best stoppers in the world, but one supposedly limited in possession. And on crosses. But Guardiola shifted his priorities from City’s build-up play to denying their opponents.

So, in terms of the goalkeeper’s primary function of keeping the ball out of the net, which stopper could make the difference come May?

Here’s what the data from our friends at Gradient Sports tells us…

Gradient shotstopping grade Raya 75.8 (Prem rank 4th) Donnarumma 85.6 (2nd)

Across a vast range of metrics, Gradient grades every player out of 100, measuring execution and outcome to offer the most insightful and accurate view of individual performance.

Donnarumma’s grade puts him second in the league, behind only Emiliano Martinez, while Burnley’s Martin Dubravka separates the Italian from Raya in fourth among the regular first-choice keepers.

Gradient analysts arrive at their grades by assessing every action and save on a nine-point scale from -2.0 to +2.0 based on performance relative to expectation. For illustrative purposes, when assessing a pass, a -2.0 pass would be one that ‘directly leads to conceding a goal’, while a +1.5 pass would be one that ‘displays incredible accuracy, takes out multiple players and leads to a goal’. For a +2.0, maybe the passer literally has to find God.

In goalkeeping terms, no Premier League keeper has performed a shotstopping action below -1.0 or above 1.0. Five keepers have performed one -1.0 action. For example, Jordan Pickford letting in Lewis Miley’s shot during Newcastle’s 4-1 win at Everton in November. Or Bournemouth’s Djordje Petrovic allowing Casemiro’s header to go past him in the 4-4 draw at Old Trafford.

More positively, 35 saves/actions by 17 keepers have been assessed as +1.0. Here’s how Raya and Donnarumma compare:

Donnarumma has been the busier of the two keepers but is yet to perform below expectation in any shotstopping action. Roughly, though, the Arsenal and City keepers are performing at a very similar level.

Raya’s ‘best’ saves: the worldie to tip over Yankuba Minteh’s curler in Arsenal’s 2-1 win over Brighton; and the one at Tottenham to claw Richarlison’s flick off the line.

His -0.5 actions, those viewed as mistakes: Allowing Donyell Malen to poke the ball between his legs, leading to Aston Villa’s consolation in Arsenal 4-1 win; and conceding Eli Kroupi’s 20-yarder at Bournemouth. Which feels bloomin’ harsh, given the quality of Kroupi’s strike. It’s not the only thunderb*stard the Bournemouth striker has hit.

Donnarumma’s three +1.0 saves: denying Alexis Mac Allister at Anfield and Harvey Barnes for Newcastle – both in the dying stages of narrow wins – and tipping over a deflected effort at Tottenham Hotspur.

If Raya’s save against Brighton and Donnarumma’s against Liverpool are only +1.0, we’re absolutely buzzing to see what a +2.0 save might look like.

Some other key shotstopping stats:

Shots on target saved percentage: Raya 68.7%; Donnarumma 69.9% Saveable goals conceded: Raya 6; Donnarumma 4 Saveable goals conceded percentage: Raya 28.6%; Donnarumma 17.4% Shots saved above expectation: Raya 18; Donnarumma 24 Goalkeeping mistake facing a shot: Raya 2; Donnarumma 0 Positional mistakes when facing a shot: Raya 3; Donnarumma 6 Shots saved with no rebound percentage: Raya 48.9%; Donnarumma 23.4% Shots saved with a bad parry: Raya 3 (6.4%); Donnarumma 8 (12.5%)

The TL;DR: Donnarumma has made more saves as a total, more saves above expectation, and fewer shotstopping mistakes. Perhaps as a consequence of their relative sizes, Raya is better positionally and offers up fewer rebounds.

Raya is on the small side for top level keepers at 6’0″, 13 centimetres shorter than Donnarumma at 6’5″. Now you’re using your hands and fingers to gauge 5.2 inches. Mate, who told you that was five inches…

The stats hint at the difference their physicality makes to their performance. The deficit in height means Raya’s positioning has to be on point, while Donnarumma’s stature allows a little more margin for error. Not much, mind.

Their sizes, though, may be relevant here in one area we can separate Raya and Donnarumma.

Percentage of shots conceded in areas of the goals: Bottom third: Raya 19.5% Donnarumma 30.5% Middle third: Raya 41.7% Donnarumma 25% Top third: Raya 57.1% Donnarumma 16.7%

Those figures appear striking, especially with Donnarumma. The Italian has conceded goals from almost a third of the low shots he has faced. Of the 23 goals he conceded in total, 18 were in the bottom third of the goal. Only five were in the top two-thirds.

Raya, though, has conceded from more than half of the efforts he has faced in the top third of his goal. Of the 14 shots aimed high, he has conceded eight goals.

So, the big man can’t get down, and the wee one struggles to get up?

Well, maybe. But the percentages above in bold are hardly obvious outliers compared to their peers. Senne Lammens and Jose Sa have both been beaten by a higher ratio of the top-third shots they have faced than Raya has.

While Donnarumma’s low-shots-to-goals ratio puts him firmly in midtable. Even if the spread of goals conceded (more than three-quarters of the goals conceded have been scored in the bottom third of the goal) is stark.

Rather than a weakness to exploit, perhaps they show a strength to counteract. Don’t go low against Raya; don’t go high against Donnarumma.

Aside from the areas they are being beaten, there’s little to separate the two. Donnarumma is providing the presence and the big saves Pep could not resist, even when James Trafford was right there, while Raya has certainly silenced the doubters that questioned whether he is good enough to guard the goal of champions.