Real Madrid rank behind Barcelona, Arsenal and Liverpool in Champions League forecast | OneFootball

Real Madrid endured a bruising campaign last season, bowing out of the Champions League at the quarter-final stage with a heavy 5-1 aggregate defeat to Arsenal.

Domestically, things were no better as Los Blancos ceded both La Liga and the Copa del Rey to Barcelona.

The fallout led to the dismissal of Carlo Ancelotti, with Xabi Alonso brought in this summer to restore the club’s lost glory.

Real Madrid: An ‘outsider’ in UCL this season

According to Opta’s tournament predictions for the 2025-26 season, Real Madrid are not counted among the top favourites to win the trophy.

The model gives them a 46.7% chance of reaching the quarter-finals and just a 24.9% probability of making the semi-finals. Their odds of lifting a 16th European Cup stand at only 5.8%.

In comparison, rivals Barcelona are tipped slightly higher with an 8.4% chance, despite falling in last season’s semi-finals to Inter Milan.

Liverpool top the list of contenders with a 20.4% chance of glory, followed by Arsenal (16%) and defending champions PSG (12.1%).

Manchester City are rated at 8.4%, level with Barcelona, while Chelsea (7%) and Bayern Munich (4.3%) sit just behind.

The relatively low rating is perhaps unsurprising considering Real Madrid’s turbulent last season and the uncertainty that comes with a managerial transition.

The Spanish giants have been drawn in a difficult group, too, with Los Blancos set to face the likes of Liverpool, Manchester City and Juventus, among others.

However, if new coach Xabi Alonso can yield the best out of the four new signings and help the likes of Vinicius, Jude Bellingham and Rodrygo regain their form, Real Madrid could once again prove to be an unstoppable force in the UCL this season.