Regression to the mean haunts Everton

That three-week break back in late March and early April looks more and more like it could have been the death knell for Everton’s European ambitions this season.

But it didn’t have to be.

Momentum from the dominant 3-0 victory over Chelsea seemed to ebb away, and Everton have looked rusty since returning to action on 12 April.

But the other teams have had to deal with it too, so there’s no excuse.

The Comeback and then the Climbdown

On Monday, Everton demonstrated that they still have it in them. They stuck in the game against Manchester City and then in the second half, and this is no hyperbole, absolutely deserved to go on and win that match.

That they didn’t is down to a combination of factors. First off, poor defending. Michael Keane and James Tarkowski were shambolic for Erling Haaland’s goal, which came straight from the restart after Thierno Barry had made it 3-1, when Man City’s players were on the floor and staring abjectly at the heavens.

That goal cut the celebratory mood and instead led to nervousness, which carried over into an inexplicably long period of stoppage time... and we all know what happened then.

There were other factors, too though. Bad luck and dreadful officiating played their part.

Poor decision-making from Carlos Alcaraz, who showed why he is so far away from a player like Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall when it comes to composure on the ball. Poor finishing from Iliman Ndiaye, who missed several golden chances.

Dreadful officiating comes into play when the referee and VAR somehow determine that, at 3-2 up, Everton shouldn’t have been awarded a penalty for a blatant foul on Merlin öhl by Bernardo Silva.

Regression

Perhaps the biggest reason of all, though, is regression.

Opta posted this stat on X: Everton are the first team in Premier League history to concede a result-altering goal in the 90th minute or later in three consecutive matches.

And while that is a horrific record to have, the data Gods do sometimes have a way of showing their hand.

Teams over- and under-perform their underlying metrics across the course of a campaign. Sometimes, they manage to get through the entire season without it levelling out. But eventually, usually, it catches up with you somewhat.

And this is what we’re starting to see now.

According to Opta Analyst, Everton have accrued 40.2 ‘expected points’. Essentially, their underlying metrics suggest they should be hovering around 14th — some 12 points off the Top 6.

But these numbers must always be taken into context. Chelsea, for example, have amassed 56.4 expected points, which is the third-best in the league, and there is no way Chelsea have been the third-best team this season.

But perhaps the biggest mark of Everton’s overperformance comes when looking at the expected Goals Against (xGA) figure.

Everton have conceded 41 times from 50.5 xGA. That 9.5 overperformance is the biggest in the Premier League, ahead of Man City’s 7.5. So the Toffees have not really been brilliant defensively when it comes to keeping it tight, but have managed to concede fewer goals than would have been anticipated based on the quality of chances they have given up.

Ultimately though, when regression strikes, you can get results like Monday, or against West Ham and Liverpool. When you’re on the wrong end of the fine margins.

Doku the Danger Man

Jeremy Doku had very little right to score either of the goals he did, but he is a quality player and turned low xG chances into pinpoint finishes of the highest calibre.

The irony is, Everton finished Monday’s match with 2.72 xG, their second-highest mark of the season, behind Bournemouth at home in February. The Toffees lost that one.

In fact, Everton also won the ‘xG battle’ against West Ham, as well.

Everton have been getting better going forward as the season has gone on. From that Bournemouth game onwards, David Moyes’s men have created the higher xG in 6 of 10 matches.

But then going the other way, the regression has struck — the chances Everton’s defence have given up have started to bite them, whereas earlier in the campaign they were getting away with it.

Re-living it when I close my eyes, that Doku goal might just have floored me. It certainly caused a sleepless night.

Taking a step back, this kind of near-miss is much easier to deal with than the existential dread that came when results would go against Everton in the relegation battles of years gone by, but it still hurts, even if in just a different way.

Everton deserved to get the points for that second-half performance — it was a display worthy of propelling them right back to the front of the European race.

They are still not out of it, which makes it worse in a way, as the hope remains, but it’s really beginning to feel like a case of what might have been... and, when all is said and done, regression to the mean is possibly what’s going to prove ever so costly.

Reader Comments (66)

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Ian Bennett 2 Posted 06/05/2026 at 11:08:01

The ball retention and positional discipline has to be better. They can't score if you can keep the ball, which I think we still struggle at.

For all Grealish's faults, he could take the ball, buy a foul, and run the clock down. It needs that level of professionalism, not panic or stupidity.

I've revised my opinion a bit on the Pickford corner, as all keepers are struggling on the flat delivery, and corner wrestling contest. Not saying he is perfect, but I was surprised how Donnaruma was done vs O'Brien. 6ft-7in Italian international.

Some might not like this, but Carragher was talking about late goals conceded or late goals won on TV about 10 days ago.

He said it's not by accident, top teams score late goals on a regular basis. Lesser teams concede late goals, lack of concentration or they think they have already won the game or taken a point. It's a mind-set.

Having said that, Liverpool have conceded late goals this season, but they got one over on us at the Hill Dickinson Stadium.

Andrew Ellams 4 Posted 06/05/2026 at 11:48:46

Last season, it was throwing away 2-goal leads; this season it's conceding in added time.

Is it a concentration issue? Fitness? Arrogance, thinking we've got games wrapped up?

Part of it has to be the weakness of the overall squad, combined with the manager's poor decision-making when it comes to substitutions, I guess.

Kevin Molloy 5 Posted 06/05/2026 at 12:03:44

We've not been able to invest in the squad for 5 years up until last summer. So we've got problems that one window won't cure. Like quality in the squad.

If we sold our back four in the summer, we'd get about £40M as a job lot. And that's cos Jake O'Brien is now worth £30M. And we were facing Doku and Haaland. So, you know, mistakes will be made.

It's gonna take a couple of years to bring the squad properly up to scratch.

That draw on Monday was nothing to do with anything other than the players not doing the basics.

Tarkowski and Keane letting Haaland run straight through them. Alcaraz not letting the ball just go out of play. Not closing down Doku for his second.

Basics; nothing to do with how much you spend or quality of squad.

John Collins 7 Posted 06/05/2026 at 12:51:47

Kevin,

Someone's getting a bargain buying Branthwaite for £10M.

Form an orderly queue!

Kevin Naylor 8 Posted 06/05/2026 at 12:59:58

We seem to hold a lot of records -- most of them undesirable.

When you look back over the years, at times you would believe there was a curse on the club.

Ray Jacques 9 Posted 06/05/2026 at 13:25:27

Paul @6, I couldn't agree more. We have better players and a better team this season than in seasons past, but we still don't have any -- as they used to say -- 'savvy' players.

For all his experience and despite being captain, I don't feel that Tarkowski leads on the pitch in terms of telling others to think, organise, waste time, manage the game etc. The Haaland goal was a perfect example.

The only one who seems to understand ball retention, slowing the game and the importance of retaining possession in key areas and at key times is Grealish.

Si Cooper 10 Posted 06/05/2026 at 14:24:31

‘Haunts' and ‘horrific'?! You will have people making out the club is ‘cursed' next…. Oh, hang on… never mind!

Let's put things in context, shall we? It's Premier League history so that already severely limits the possibilities of who could be the first for this. Mammoth amounts of added-on time are also relatively new which further restricts the field.

What about the relative calibre of the opposition and the fact these were games where both sides wouldn't give anything up until the final whistle?

Then how about factoring in that we are in the tail-end of the season when some players are likely to be really feeling it at the end of intense fixtures?

I'd have preferred 4 more points for sure but I'm not going to get hysterical about the exact timing of when the final goals were scored in three games.

Kevin Molloy 11 Posted 06/05/2026 at 15:02:09

Sorry, John, I meant the backline which faced Man City.

Kevin Molloy 12 Posted 06/05/2026 at 15:04:54

Paul that's the great thing about elite players, they deliver the basics as standard.

But when you have players who aren't worth very much, the first thing to be sacrificed is an assumption the basics will be carried out.

John Collins 13 Posted 06/05/2026 at 15:57:24

I know, Kev, a little joke, bud.

I would get shut of three of the back four to be honest. Four at a push.

John Collins 14 Posted 07/05/2026 at 12:17:22

So 3 games to go. The suspense is doing me in, will David go past Sean's total of 48 points???\

Come on, Davy, you can do it. You're the Moyesiah remember.

Kevin Molloy 15 Posted 07/05/2026 at 13:43:49

Sean Dyche wasn't sacked for getting us 48 points, John, which as we all know was a respectable total. He threw himself under the bus after 2 goals in 10 games... that's right, 2 goals in 10 games.

And here you are moaning about the manager after we were seconds away from beating the Champions elect.

Tony Abrahams 16 Posted 07/05/2026 at 14:17:31

I thought Dyche threw himself under the bus, when he started trying to pick little fights with the fans, Kevin. Maybe he felt like he deserved more credit for his work over the previous 18 months, but I personally thought that this was when things began to really change for him.

Losing two nil leads in successive games, would have definitely contributed to his decision to seemingly start concentrating completely on defending, but I think you could already see that the club had taken it's toll on him by the time last season started. I forgot he got to 48 points without the points deduction.

Let's face it, the only really memorable thing about that season was the win against Liverpool, and yet some people are now saying that we are doing great, and have had a much better season this time around.

Kevin Molloy 17 Posted 07/05/2026 at 14:21:58

We clearly are though, aren't we, Tohy? We are surely in a much better situation than then.

We have Keane, O'Brien, Beto, Garner -- all a magnitude better under Moyes. Excellent signings like Dewsbury-Hall, Grealish, and Röhl, and the prospect of adding two excellent fullbacks in the summer.

Even Barry is starting to slot.

John Collins 18 Posted 07/05/2026 at 14:46:54

We clearly are though, aren't we, Tony

Not in the points department, Kevin. He didn't beat City and they are not the Champions elect.

Kevin Molloy 19 Posted 07/05/2026 at 15:23:16

They would have been if we hadn't taken points off them, John.

I think if you polled a thousand Evertonians and asked "Is it better now, or then?" none of them would say "It was better then".

John Collins 20 Posted 07/05/2026 at 15:28:59

I agree.

"How much better?" -- That is the question, Kevin.

Kevin Molloy 21 Posted 07/05/2026 at 15:41:33

Well, 2 weeks ago, we were in the running for the Champions League?

No question we've had a frustrating falling off, but our two best players have been out for most of the season.

I don't think anybody would have given this team much of a chance if we'd been told we'd have to have Tarkowsky and Keane as our centre-back pairing all season.

Dale Self 22 Posted 07/05/2026 at 15:50:03

This week, we are in the running for 14th.

Could be in the running to drop below Leeds in two weeks time. Just to add some balance.

John Collins 23 Posted 07/05/2026 at 16:04:20

What finishing position would be acceptable for you, Kevin?

Grant Rorrison 24 Posted 07/05/2026 at 16:33:24

If we finish where we are currently, it's acceptable. If we get up to 8th it's pretty bloody good.

If we had somehow got 6th, especially if it was a Champions League spot, it would be amazing and Moyes should be in the running for Manager of the Season.

John Collins 25 Posted 07/05/2026 at 16:36:12

If we finish 10th or below, Grant? It's frustrating more than anything for me.

So much more could have been achieved if we had had a go in a sub-standard league.

Grant Rorrison 26 Posted 07/05/2026 at 16:41:34

John, I've covered 10th already in my post. I'll personally be a bit disappointed if we drop out of the top half entirely.

But I suppose, as we finished 13th last year and then had the 13th highest spend, a case could be made for it being acceptable. Just not by me.

Dale Self 27 Posted 07/05/2026 at 17:02:01

Acceptably comparable to Dyche?

But, but, he was so...

Kevin Molloy 28 Posted 07/05/2026 at 17:24:31

John,

As we were in the running for the Champions League in April, it doesn't really much matter where we finish in Moyes's first season after taking over a relegation side.

It's clear that progress is being made, that's good enough for me at this stage in our development.

Tony Abrahams 29 Posted 07/05/2026 at 17:48:08

Memorable games wise Kevin. Do you think we have had more memorable games this season than the previous few seasons? Man Utd, away -- winning with 10 men?

What else, beating a Chelsea team that have been getting battered by everyone?

Villa away was good, but other than Forest, I can't off the top of my head, a team who Everton have done the double against?

John Collins 30 Posted 07/05/2026 at 18:08:12

"John,

As we were in the running for the Champions League in April, it doesn't really much matter where we finish. "

I can't think of a suitable, polite, answer, Kevin.

Kevin Molloy 31 Posted 07/05/2026 at 18:27:14

I think I have more of an understanding of football management, John.

As Howard Kendall said in 1985, "This didn't happen overnight, it took 4 years to build this". Or Alex Ferguson, who didn't win a carrot for 5 years.

So I'm not going to freak out with a disappointing May if the previous 8 months have been very encouraging. And when I say 'very encouraging', I'm referring to having the best away record in the Premier League for much of that time.

Grant Rorrison 32 Posted 07/05/2026 at 18:45:02

Does our away form being massively improved count as something 'memorable'? Or would you prefer to talk about the day we beat team 'x' even if it was the only win we had all season?

We've won away to half the current Top 6 this season. Is that 'memorable'?

Dale Self 33 Posted 07/05/2026 at 18:59:37

Do the Moyes defenders answer counter questions like that? Please direct me to those posts so I can read them.

And what's with the 'only win all season' qualification?

John Collins 34 Posted 07/05/2026 at 19:13:42

On that basis, Kevin, Moyesie was 7 years overdue first time around.

What teams have you managed, Bud?

Kevin Molloy 35 Posted 07/05/2026 at 19:24:51

Haha, I thought you'd like that.

Mark Murphy 36 Posted 07/05/2026 at 19:32:51

Tony,

Fulham, mate.

And Palace, come Sunday.

Tony Hughes 37 Posted 07/05/2026 at 20:38:52

Kevin, you keep banging on about having the best away record in the Premier League -- that's just not true, mate.

At best, we're 5th or 6th and probably lower now after our recent Moyesiac falling off to the end of the season.

Kevin Molloy 38 Posted 07/05/2026 at 20:44:43

Tony,

From the moment he joined in January 2025 up until I believe the Brentford game, he had the best win away record in the Premier League. That's over like 16 months.

Tony Abrahams 39 Posted 07/05/2026 at 21:11:02

Kevin, I’ve just looked at the Premier League table, and I’m hoping we can win another away game on Sunday, which would mean we have done the double over three bottom-half teams. (Thanks Mark!)

The away form has been very encouraging, Grant, but because of our home form, it hasn’t really made much of a difference points wise to the two previous seasons, even though some people continue to say we have been battling against relegation for years.

I could probably count the really good performances I’ve seen this season on one hand, which actually might be an improvement on the last few seasons....

Taking away the Chelsea game, when everyone got excited (looking back, Chelsea’s form was absolutely horrendous), I can’t remember one home game in 2026 which got the fans excited until the other night.

It’s backward and forward arguments, and for every person who is happy, I’m sure there’s another who sees it a little bit differently and might even be a little disappointed because, with seven games left, the season was looking like it promised a lot more.

Kevin Molloy 40 Posted 07/05/2026 at 21:16:26

Tony,

We've had to play with a low block the whole time, and no attacking full-backs. It's going to improve once we get the full-backs in. Moyes knows how to win at home, his whole career has been based on strong home form.

I really don't know why everyone is getting too excited with what the eventual Premier League position is. It could go up or down about 8 places, depending on our and other results. If we luckily finish 7th, it doesn't mean we're a much better side than if we unluckily finish 13th.

I look at things in the round: wwe look set to have a strong side next season. We're in a transitional phase, we need the squad to be improved incrementally, and I think that's what we'll get.

John Collins 41 Posted 07/05/2026 at 21:24:02

The targets are slowly being lowered over the last few weeks from some posters...

Tony Abrahams 42 Posted 07/05/2026 at 21:26:07

Some fair points, Kevin, but maybe if we had played with a low block all season, then we might have won more home games?

I think we would have won more home games if we had played with a bit more adventure in some games, but we are going over old ground, because that low block has worked away from home!

Martin Reppion 43 Posted 07/05/2026 at 21:29:13

To jump into your argument, guys, this season has been a massive improvement on recent years. At no point has it felt like a relegation battle. At times, we have punched well above our depleted squad's weight.

We are stronger than we have been for a long time and have posters on this site moaning that we now look like we will miss out on European football.

Pre-season, most of us would have said that mid-table security for a season was an improvement.

Over the summer, we will see more changes of personnel. Some will bemoan that we don't sign the likes of Lionel Messi. Get real. All we need to ensure is that each signing is better than the starting or cover player they are replacing.

The same level of incremental improvement will give us a realistic chance of a Top 8 campaign next year. I am not advocating support for mediocrity. I am advocating support for realistic targets that will see us back as contenders in 2 or 3 years time.

Brendan McLaughlin 44 Posted 07/05/2026 at 21:29:27

When Moyes arrived at Everton in his first stint, he took a team that had generally being looking downwards to the heady heights of 8th.

The following season, we were back in the Bottom 6. And then in his third season we finished 4th.

Progress isn't, as Kevin alludes, necessarily linear.

(The exact seasons and the positions in which Everton finished have been deliberately changed to protect the MOB!)

Tony Hughes 45 Posted 07/05/2026 at 21:42:50

Kevin's right, the squad just had a 3-week spring break, they should have been refreshed and raring to go.

Mentalty issues? It can't be down to tiredness.

John Pickles 46 Posted 07/05/2026 at 22:02:14

Whatever happens from now to the end of the season, three things come to mind.

Firstly, we have made recognisable improvement from the last few seasons; we have a core group of players that are good enough to play in European competitions; and lastly, we are the nation's basket-case club no more.

Brendan McLaughlin 47 Posted 07/05/2026 at 23:35:36

John P #48

Pretty boring but pretty accurate

Stu Gre 48 Posted 08/05/2026 at 11:43:41

Brendan didn't we finish 7th in Moyes first season?

That means if Moyes doesn't finish in the top 8 he'd have failed based on his own previous high standards? (not too dissimilar circumstances to his first stint). Tbh, if he doesn't finish in the top 8 I'd be very disappointed as that's what a lot of us less favourable towards Moyes would have expected at the start of the season.

Have we progressed, yes in some respects but no in terms of youth development and style of play.

Have we progressed on what Moyes did when he first took over from Dyche, I'd argue we have regressed a bit.

We're we ever seriously in for champions league positions. NO! Read back comments if you like, but lots of us predicted the Moyes unravelling, because its not like he doesn't have previous.

BTW, one manager lots of us have spoken about - Glasner - has reached yet another final despite being dealt a far worse hand than our manager. Finding it hard in the league but he still found time to think about trying to win something. Oh and they can still finish above champions league chasing Everton btw.

Now to opta stats, they are fine until you realise people make mistakes, or have moments of brilliance. One moment can defy all statistics. Just ask Stephen Gerrard.

Tony Abrahams 49 Posted 08/05/2026 at 12:01:29

Brendan@44, when Moyes, took Everton, to that 4th place finish mate, I remember that we got absolutely murdered on the opening day of the season at home to a very good Arsenal team.

After that opening game I remember Kevin Campbell, coming out and saying that he would take 17th place right now, and because we had just sold Wayne Rooney, and hadn’t really signed any players during that summer, then I think most people felt the same way.

Moyes, changed the system and then we beat a few of the promoted teams, got a bit of confidence and never really looked back, and yet now, at a time that some of us can see that we have got a few very good players in our squad, and are playing in front of nearly 50.000 Evertonians, every other week, in a fantastic new stadium, why do so many people just keep going on about STABILITY?

It’s time to wake up start demanding more and realise what Everton can become once again, imvho!!

Kevin Molloy 50 Posted 08/05/2026 at 12:42:49

why is there this assumption that getting rid of Moyes and getting someone else in is not a huge risk? Any new appointment is always fraught with risk, and yet we are being urged to ditch the concrete progress of the last year, in order to roll the dice with god knows who? Just cos we've got a new stadium, we aren't this big draw we were 40 years ago. you only need to look at our struggles in the transfer market to see that. Players in France preferred to stay where they were last year. And if we get the appointment wrong, we'll be bobbing around the relegation zone by Christmas, knowing that we absolutely have to get the next appointment right or we'll be relegated. the uptick in form of Garner KDH O'Brien Beto and Keane are all traceable to working under Moyes. They may well fall off again with a new guy. Why would we want to open up that gigantic. can of worms. It's not like we haven't been down this road before, we've appointed the exciting young coaches like Silva and Lamard, and we know that when we have to boot them it forces us to managers like Dyche and Allardyce. Let's not do that. Let's at least give this manager a fair crack of the whip. ie more than a year.

Andrew Ellams 51 Posted 08/05/2026 at 13:41:33

John P @ 46. If the next 3 go like the last 4 then we will finish the season with pretty much the same points as last season and around the same league position which is not too different from the previous season under Dyche,

Sounds more like treading water to me.

John Collins 52 Posted 08/05/2026 at 13:51:42

The brainwashed from Moyes's first go around remain in situ.

Indoctrinated fans with the fear of relegation as opposed to the accepted stability.

He has made no progress on the points total of Dyche to date.

Brendan McLaughlin 53 Posted 08/05/2026 at 21:23:36

Stu mate #48

I agree I don't think we were ever serious contenders for the Champions League.

Take your own advice and read back the comments and you'll see that the people bigging up our Champions League hopes were mainly the MOB. They were hyping the expectation levels to use as a stick with which to beat the manager.

Not sure Moyes unravelled. I just think we had a difficult run of fixtures and just weren't good enough.

Brendan McLaughlin 54 Posted 08/05/2026 at 21:29:09

Tony #49

That was also the season I discovered ToffeeWeb and it's been great company ever since.

Tony Abrahams 55 Posted 08/05/2026 at 21:54:38

Very debatable what you have written about it only being the MOB, Brendan, because arguably the biggest defender of David Moyes, on this website is Kevin Molloy, and along with him saying we have got the best away record in the league, the other repetitive thing he has kept on saying was, we are in the running for the champions league.

Surely you could argue that Kevin, was also hyping the manager, to make it sound like he wasn’t getting enough credit for the job he was doing?

We have come up short but we have also just lost five points, because we have started conceding last minute goals in our last three games, so if Everton don’t get into Europe, because of this then, does this also mean it was because we simply weren’t good enough, and the manager has still done a fantastic job?

Brendan McLaughlin 56 Posted 08/05/2026 at 22:09:15

Tony #55

Being in the running and being serious contenders are very different arguments but I'm sure Kevin can speak for himself.

Not sure many people are claiming Moyes has done a fantastic job or I'm missing more than I think on ToffeeWeb.

John Collins 57 Posted 08/05/2026 at 22:26:10

"Paranoia is just a heightened sense of awareness." — John Lennon

"The Mob" Brendan?

Brendan McLaughlin 58 Posted 08/05/2026 at 22:55:01

John #57

Obviously notThe MOB

John Collins 59 Posted 08/05/2026 at 23:02:01

I don't know, Brendan....

Given your opinion on the TW MOB, they could be on a par.

John Collins 60 Posted 08/05/2026 at 23:09:57

Fergeddaboutid 😁

Brendan McLaughlin 61 Posted 08/05/2026 at 23:21:36

John #59

The ToffeeWeb MOB can hardly land a punch... a Saint Valentine's Day mob like massacre... doubt I'll see it on these pages.

John Collins 62 Posted 08/05/2026 at 23:39:03

You would dive in the way if it was aimed at Bugsy Moyes, Brendan.

Take one for the gaffer!

Eric Myles 63 Posted 08/05/2026 at 00:38:27

Andrew #51, we were not treading water under Dyche.

We were the drowning man about to go under for the final time until we got a Moyes-shaped rescue boat.

Don Alexander 64 Posted 09/05/2026 at 03:12:52

As me and others have proposed, Freidkin this Summer will display what he is between being the owner of a trophy-winning historically major English football club with a huge measurably fanatic and eternally loyal fan-base... or, regrettably, just another avaricious tosser intent on using us for his personal financial benefit.

Freidkin, be warned: if you're the latter, you will not get decades of ostensible "support".

Us lot, the fans upon which your fortune depends, have been punished enough by bogus owners, for decades, and you should have known that before you acquired us.

Make a statement this Summer, with signings and sales.

Maybe I’m becoming a little bit of a sensationalist myself but, when I read some of the comments from the other little gang, who blame anyone but the manager at times, then it does make me think that they must believe David, is doing a fantastic job, Brendan?

I see quite a few people giving Moyes - stick, on this website Brendan, and although I’m not going to go back and look at the posts, I don’t think many people are using the team’s failure to qualify for the champions league, as a stick to beat up our manager?

If we don’t qualify for Europe, after putting ourselves in such a great position, then I think a lot of the people who don’t really like the manager, will blame him and say he has failed, but let’s see how the season finishes first, is what I’d say.