Revealed: What needs to happen for Serie A to secure a fifth Champions League spot | OneFootball

Italian football’s hopes of securing a fifth Champions League place next season remain alive, just, but the path to achieving it is narrow and dependent on a sequence of results that is far from straightforward.

The basis for qualification is UEFA’s in-season coefficient ranking, which determines whether a fifth club from a given nation earns an additional Champions League spot, as noted by the Gazzetta dello Sport.

ROME, ITALY – FEBRUARY 22: AS Roma head coach Gian Piero Gasperini looks on during the Serie A match between AS Roma and US Cremonese at Stadio Olimpico on February 22, 2026 in Rome, Italy. (Photo by Paolo Bruno/Getty Images)

Italy currently sit fourth in that table, behind England, Spain and Germany, with Portugal close behind.

The encouraging news is that this week’s European results, despite Atalanta’s heavy defeat to Bayern Munich, actually allowed Italy to close the gap slightly on those above them and extend their lead over Portugal.

The updated standings make for slightly more optimistic reading than they did 24 hours ago.

BOLOGNA, ITALY – MARCH 12: Lorenzo Pellegrini of Serie A club AS Roma celebrates scoring his team’s first goal during the UEFA Europa League 2025/26 Round of 16 First Leg match between Bologna FC 1909 and AS Roma at Stadio Renato Dall’Ara on March 12, 2026 in Bologna, Italy. (Photo by Alessandro Sabattini/Getty Images)

Serie A clubs face uphill battle for 5th Champions League spot

The bad news, however, is more structural.

Of the four Serie A clubs still active in European competition, realistically only two are likely to progress to the next round.

Atalanta face a near-impossible task overturning a 6-1 deficit against Bayern, while the Bologna-Roma Europa League tie guarantees that one Italian club will be eliminated regardless of the result. Fiorentina’s Conference League progression looks the most straightforward following their 2-1 win over Rakow.

The real battle is with Spain, whose clubs, including Atletico Madrid and Real Madrid, are in strong positions across the Champions League and Europa League.

Germany’s picture is more complicated, offering Italy a slightly more realistic target to chase.

The true picture will become clear in seven days’ time, when the round of sixteen concludes. For now, the fifth spot remains a long shot, but not yet an impossibility.