San Marino eye World Cup play-offs: heavy loss could be a lifeline | OneFootball

A football paradox is taking shape in Group H of the qualifiers: the tiny state of San Marino could reach the 2026 World Cup playoffs thanks to a combination of results… and a few too many goals conceded.

San Marino dreams of the World Cup playoffs: here’s how losing (by a lot) could get them a second chance

Can a team qualify for the World Cup playoffs even after losing all their matches? In the case of San Marino, the answer is yes. The small country, historically the bottom of the barrel in European football, could benefit from a technical mechanism that intertwines European qualifiers and the Nations League.

The key to everything lies in San Marino’s victory in Group 1 of League D of the 2024/25 Nations League, achieved against Gibraltar and Liechtenstein. A historic result that today, thanks to a combination of circumstances, could unexpectedly open the door to the World Cup playoffs.

How the 2026 World Cup playoffs work

The new UEFA format for qualifying for the 2026 World Cup provides for:

12 teams qualifying directly (the group winners);

4 additional spots determined by the March playoffs.

The following participate in these playoffs:

All the second-placed teams from the qualifying groups;

The four best group winners from the 2024/25 Nations League who have not qualified directly or as runners-up.

And this is exactly where San Marino comes into play, potentially among the best winners of League D, provided that one of the teams above them in the standings secures a playoff spot through the regular qualifiers.

Group H: Romania decisive for San Marino’s fate

The situation in Group H is still open:

Austria 15 points (+16 goal difference),

Bosnia and Herzegovina 13 points (+8),

Romania 10 points (+5),

Cyprus 8 points (+2),

San Marino 0 points (-31).

The top three have played 6 matches, Cyprus and San Marino 7. The November schedule will be decisive: Cyprus-Austria and Bosnia and Herzegovina–Romania will be played, two matches that will determine the race for second place.

If Romania were to beat Bosnia and take second place, they would gain access to the playoffs through the qualifiers, thus freeing up a spot for the best Nations League group winners. And the beneficiary would be San Marino, first excluded in the overall ranking.

The incredible twist: losing could help

The key match will be Romania–San Marino, the last day of the group. If the Romanians win by a wide margin, they would strengthen their goal difference and secure second place in Group H, thus clearing the way for San Marino to be reinstated via the Nations League.

A football paradox, but perfectly within the rules. As several analysts note, “losing by a wide margin could be the most effective way to help Romania and, indirectly, benefit themselves.”

A remote, but not impossible, scenario

Although the possibility is minimal, San Marino has every reason to believe in a sporting miracle. The combinations of results and the new UEFA regulations have opened up unthinkable scenarios for a national team that, until a few years ago, would celebrate even just scoring a goal.

The paradox remains, but the math doesn’t lie: if Romania finishes second and all the other Nations League group winners have already qualified, San Marino could really make it to the 2026 World Cup playoffs. A dream that, for once, could come… even from the goals they concede.

This article was translated into English by Artificial Intelligence. You can read the original version in 🇮🇹 here.