Santos struggle with inconsistency, campaign mirrors relegation year | OneFootball

Last Monday, Santos was defeated by Vitória 1-0 at Vila Belmiro, in a direct relegation battle in the Brazilian Championship. The Peixe saw their rival close the gap in the standings and, instead of widening the distance, found themselves haunted once again by the ‘ghost’ of relegation.

The defeat to Vitória kept Santos in 16th place on the table, with 31 points. However, the team from Bahia matched their points tally and put Peixe under pressure. With the setback, Santos now has a campaign very similar to that of 2023, the year of their first and only relegation.

The Numbers: 2025 vs 2023

Santos’ current campaign in the Brazilian Championship stands at 31 points from 28 matches, with eight wins, seven draws, and 13 losses, totaling a success rate of just 36.9%.

After 28 rounds in 2023, Santos had very similar numbers in the Brasileirão. The team had 30 points, eight wins, and one less draw than the current campaign (six), in addition to suffering 14 defeats. The success rate at that time was 35.7%.

Just like in the relegation year, Santos has also struggled to balance defense and attack. This season, for example, Peixe has scored 28 goals and conceded 40. In that edition of the national tournament, the team found the net 30 times and conceded 52.

In this edition of the Brasileirão, the Alvinegro Praiano is still the third-worst home team, with a 45.2% success rate at home (five wins, four draws, and five losses). The Santos team is ahead of only Sport (25.6%) and Fortaleza (37.7%), who are in the Z4.

Tough Run Ahead

In the fight against relegation, Santos faces a tough run ahead in the Brazilian Championship. The Alvinegro Praiano will face four teams from the G6 and only one from the Z4.

Peixe will have, in sequence, over the next six rounds: Botafogo (away), Fortaleza (Vila Belmiro), Palmeiras (away), Flamengo (away), Palmeiras again (at home), and Mirassol (Vila Belmiro).

Risk of Santos Being Relegated

Santos saw their probability of relegation increase after the defeat to Vitória last Monday. The chance of relegation after beating Corinthians in the 28th round was 13.9%. Now, after the setback at Vila, this number has risen to 34.8%. The data is from UFMG (Federal University of Minas Gerais).

Despite having one game less than many clubs, Santos knows it won’t have an easy life and will need to pick up points in the final stretch of the Brasileirão to avoid being relegated for the second time in its history.

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This article was translated into English by Artificial Intelligence. You can read the original version in 🇧🇷 here.