São Paulo’s Libertadores hopes: updated chances via Brasileirão | OneFootball

Eliminated from the Brazil Cup and the Libertadores and without winning the Paulistão, São Paulo will finish the season without titles, which hadn’t happened since 2022. All that remains is the Brasileirão, where the club is only seeking a spot to return to the continent’s main tournament.

Tricolor is 8th in the league and has fallen away from the G6 that qualifies for the Libertadores after recent stumbles in the last rounds, having lost four of the last six matches. They have 38 points, the same as 7th-placed Fluminense, but are behind Bahia, 6th with 43 points in the table, the same as Botafogo, one spot above.

The situation is complicated and the numbers illustrate Tricolor’s plight well. According to the renowned UFMG Department of Mathematics, which calculates football probabilities, Crespo’s team has only a 17.6% chance of securing a spot in the Libertadores, by finishing in the top six of the Brasileirão. There’s also the possibility that this window could widen if any team in the G6 qualifies via the Libertadores or the Brazil Cup.

As in 2024, for example, when Tricolor finished the Brasileirão under Zubeldía in 6th, they would have been in the Libertadores qualifying round, but ended up with a direct spot since teams above them won other tournaments.

São Paulo’s most likely outcome is the Sudamericana. According to the mathematics institute, Tricolor is 1st in chances to clinch a spot in the tournament, at 70.7%.

The first team among the top half of the table already with a 0% mathematical chance of being champion, São Paulo still has a tiny 0.26% chance of being relegated to Série B.

The team will face a tough stretch with direct clashes in the fight for a spot in the next Libertadores. If they had the terrible news on Monday morning (13) of a new injury to midfielder Oscar, they are counting on the return of some injured players, with important names like Lucas, Ferraresi, and Luiz Gustavo, who could play against Grêmio on Thursday (16), in Rio Grande do Sul, when the Brasileirão resumes with its 28th round.

This article was translated into English by Artificial Intelligence. You can read the original version in 🇧🇷 here.