Saturday Football Tips: Expect derby cards in south Madrid | OneFootball

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Carles Alena has been shown a card in three of his four derby starts

After 16/1 and 4/1 winners in the past couple of days, our football props column has 8/5 and 17/2 selections for a La Liga derby on Saturday...

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Getafe v Rayo VallecanoSaturday 24 August, 20:30Live on Premier Sports 2

Long-term readers of this column will know I love a good derby.

This one in south Madrid may not be the most famous but it's certainly one of the most feisty with it consistently delivering cards aplenty.

The card make-ups in the last 10 meetings have been: 10-10-8-5-6-13-3-10-6-5. In short, it's wild.

The problem is that, perhaps deliberately, the Spanish FA have appointed last season's most lenient referee in La Liga, Javier Alberola Rojas, who averaged under 3.5 cards per game in 2023/24.

Still, the potential upside to that is the teams will still go at each other, to an extent where the official simply has to go to his pocket regularly and, if that's the case, we're getting inflated prices.

After 16/1 and 4/1 winners in the past couple of days, it's worth taking a risk on cards being forthcoming.

My approach is going to be two-fold.

Bet 1: Getafe over 2.5 cards & Rayo over 1.5 cards

The first bet involves team cards - I'm going to put Getafe down for over 2.5 and Rayo for over 1.5.

This Bet Builder has delivered in the last six derbies but can be backed here at around 8/5.

Getafe were once again the dirtiest team in La Liga last season and they've received 3+ cards in nine of their last 14 games. As for Rayo, they've had 2+ cards in 24 of their last 29.

You could potentially add under 2.5 goals to boost the price - that's occurred in the last five meetings of these sides.

Bet 2: Carles Alena & Oscar Valentin both to be shown a card

However, my big-priced pick here comes in the player-card market where I'm going to double up one player from each side, namely Carles Alena and Oscar Valentin.

Alena looks likely to start in the Getafe midfield having replaced the injured Mauro Arambarri on the opening day last weekend. The Uruguayan has since been ruled out of this one.

Alena has been carded in three of his four South Madrid derbies, while last season he was booked in five of his 12 starts.

As for Rayo captain Valentin, he 'only' received seven cards last season but has a good track record in this fixture, being carded in three of five starts.

He'll be up for this one under the lights of the Coliseum where there should be a cracking atmosphere.

It's over 17/2 that both men are booked.

I'll split stakes equally between the two bets - half a point on each.

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Recommended bets

Back Getafe over 2.5 cards & Rayo over 1.5 cards @ around 8/5Back Carles Alena & Oscar Valentin both to be shown a card @ around 17/2

Column P/L 2024/25

Staked: 40pts Returned: 48.49pts P/L: +8.49pts

2023/24 P/L: +16.78pts 2022/23 P/L: +68.69pts