Saturday League 1 & 2 Tips: Barnsley and Walsall the weekend best bets | OneFootball

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League One

Leg 1: Rotherham United v Bolton Wanderers, Saturday 12:30: Back BTTS 'No' @ 11/10

We're going against the market here with the BTTS 'Yes' odds-on at 8/11 and it's a market I'd rather explore than the outright win or draw odds as Rotherham have failed to convince at home and Bolton likewise on the road.

Rotherham's form is patchy to say the least with just one victory in their last five - but crucially for our weekend bet those five matches have all been Under 2.5 Goals with just two goals as an output from Steve Evans' side in that run and back-to-back clean sheets on the road.

Bolton is more the source of potential goals at the moment, but they are not a team to trust wholly and for all of their possession - which they often dominate, sometimes doesn't always translate to shots on target, although the Trotters are unbeaten across their last four away league games against sides from Yorkshire (W2 D2), last enjoying a longer run between March 2013 and April 2014 (six games).

KEY OPTA STAT: Rotherham have failed to win either of their last two home league games (D1 L1), last enduring a longer such run in League One in December 2017 (four games).

Leg 2: Northampton Town v Barnsley, Saturday 15:00: Back Barnsley Match Odds 90 mins @ 4/7

Barnsley have won five of their last seven away league games (D1 L1), though they have conceded exactly one goal in six of those matches during that time and they historically do well in this fixture too as the Cobblers have failed to win any of their last three league games against Barnsley and will be looking to avoid failing to win four in successionvfor the first time in the EFL.

With that recent Barnsley away form, they fully deserve to be odds-on by some chalk for Saturday and their away record has been much better than their home one with eight wins away from Oakwell (compared to four).

Since the 4-0 thrashing by Leyton Orient, Darrel Clarke's side have produced the perfect riposte with four wins on the spin and they've scored 10 goals in that run. Indeed, they can boast of having the leading xG in League One at 1.47 and that hopefully will be enough to justify their short price.

KEY OPTA STAT: After failing to win any of their first eight away league games against Northampton Town between 1961 and 1977 (D2 L6), Barnsley have since won two of their last three such matches (L1).

Leg 3: Stevenage Borough v Burton Albion, Saturday 15:00: Back BTTS 'No' @ 8/11

Stevenage are all of a sudden the masters of the 0-0 with three of their last five games finishing that way - and one of those was at Northampton. Last weekend's goalless draw at Lincoln saw both sides under the 1.00 for xG output with Lincoln at 0.50 and Borough at 0.90. Those numbers mirror almost exactly the stalemate at the Cobblers with Stevo at a lower 0.48xG.

It wasn't a huge shock to see the Under 2.5 Goals on the Sportsbook at 13/20 but backing the BTTS 'No' gives us a better option at 8/11 as Burton are not exactly a wrecking-ball of a scoring team and have won just one of their last 12 away league games (D5 L6), failing to score more than one goal in any of their last eight such matches.

The Brewers are still fighting for survival as the bottom placed club and they've only netted 20 times in 24 games this term with just nine on the road all season. I wouldn't be surprised with a 0-0 here if you are looking for a Correct Score bet, and it's hard to get excited about either in front of goal with Albion down at the bottom with the lowest xG in the division at just 1.03.

KEY OPTA STAT: Stevenage have won three of their last four home league games (L1), whilst they've kept seven clean sheets in total across their home outings in League One this season.

League Two

Leg 1: Port Vale v Barrow, Saturday 15:00: Back Under 2.5 Goals @ 6/10

Port Vale have served us rather well of late with their inability to score, so it was relief all round for the Vale faithful with a 2-1 victory against Doncaster - their first win in the league since November 16th.

Prior to Saturday's win, Darren Moore's team had failed to score in five of their six games (with only one scored at Bradford) so it is still a case of keeping them onside in terms of a low-scoring game.

They were fortunate too with Doncaster giving up two very cheap goals with poor and slapdash defending.

Barrow are one of the lowest scorers on the road with just six scored in 12 matches away and ten of those were Under 2.5 Goals and this looks another potential low-scorer as Vale tend to overdo the passing at the back for possession sake and are often easy to defend against.

The visitors have won just two of their 22 away league games throughout 2024 (D7 L13), the joint-fewest victories of any side in League Two during that period and they are readily opposed for a win too.

KEY OPTA STAT: ort Vale have lost just two of their last 15 Football League games against Barrow (W9 D4), though did lose the reverse fixture this season 4-0 at Holker Street.

Leg 2: Walsall v Tranmere, Saturday 15:00: Back Walsall @ 11/20

There's no point trying to be clever here in playing Walsall HT/FT, minus 2 or to win with goals, a straight back of the home win should be fairly straightforward as the price indicates.

Walsall dominated this fixture early in the season but lost 1-0 at Prenton Park and they suffered for conceding an early goal via a set-piece which allowed Tranmere to sit back deep in numbers and soak up any pressure. Walsall had over 60% possession in that game and will need to play on the front foot early here.

Mat Sadler's exploits are well known now in this division with Walsall sitting top and have won their last five - ably assisted by the brilliance of Nathan Lowe's goals in that run, and it's been interesting to note he and Tommy Simkin (both on loan from the Potters) were back at Stoke this week training with Mark Robins taking charge.

Lowe has a natural eye for goal and serenity and along with Jamille Matt, it's hard to oppose a team with the most home wins in League Two and the most home goals (25).

KEY OPTA STAT: Tranmere Rovers have lost five of their last six away league games against Walsall (W1), with each of their last three defeats coming via a 1-0 scoreline.

Leg 3: Swindon Town v Crewe Alexandra, Saturday 15:00: Back Crewe @ 29/20

While Port Vale and Doncaster are faltering with their challenge against Walsall for League Two title honours, Crewe and Salford are the two that have nipped up on the blindside in second and third, although it's a gap of ten points behind the majestic Saddlers.

Crewe's form is good; with three wins from six and just one defeat and they've recently hit Bromley for four and Carlisle for three, and you'd have to fancy their chances against a loose Swindon defence who aren't exactly famed for clean sheets with just two at the County Ground all season - and they were back in August and October.

Swindon could not handle the pace of Notts County at the weekend and looked a beaten team throughout with David McGoldrick earning praise from Ian Holloway calling it one of the best displays he has seen at this level. Holloway started with five at the back and changed it to a four but they looked very open with wing-backs and I wouldn't be surprised to see a more conventional back line.

Crewe had a lot of joy at Bromley, who perhaps had one eye on the FA Cup tie with Newcastle, and their front two caused Andy Woodman's team all manner of problems as they tend to exploit spaces and get behind defences. Jack Lankester is thriving in the Crewe set-up with seven goals in 21 (six of those in his last eight).

The Alex have lost just one of their last eight away league games (W2 D5), while they have scored exactly one goal in nine of their last ten matches on the road and should be backed this Saturday.