Saturday League 1 & 2 Tips: Kelman-inspired Orient can lead 16/1 and 22/1 trebles | OneFootball

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League One

Leg 1: Leyton Orient v Wycombe Wanderers, Saturday 12:30: Back Leyton Orient @ 9/5

All to play for at Brisbane Road with Wycombe chasing the second automatic spot just behind Wrexham and Orient have the task to fend off Reading for what appears the final playoff spot.

Orient's recent form makes them the bet here at 9/5 after four on the spin with goals the reason not to jettison the O's at this crucial stage. Richie Wellens' team have hit six goals in the two games over Easter and six on the road in two games prior, with Charlie Kelman in unbelievable form with six in those four matches.

Kelman has passed the magical 20-goal mark now for the season and his goals could be the different between a spot in the playoffs or not, and their xG metric at home is strong with him at 1.51 for and 1.11 against.

After losing 4-0 last time out to Charlton Athletic, Wycombe will be looking to avoid losing successive matches for the first time since August and the first two matches of this current campaign and we'll stick with the in-form Londoners in what should be a terrific atmosphere at Brisbane Road on Saturday.

KEY OPTA STAT: Leyton Orient have won 11 of their 22 home league games this season (D4 L7), last winning more in a third-tier campaign back in 2013-14 (13).

Leg 2: Burton Albion v Cambridge United, Saturday 15:00: Back Under 2.5 Goals @ 20/23

Cambridge were worth chancing last Monday in a must-win game but effectively booked their ticket for League Two football with a 1-2 home defeat against Leyton Orient. They nicked a goal and led for 67 minutes so there was some fight there,

"We've not given loads away while I've been here but we've also not scored enough and today is another one. We're just not clinical enough," said Harris, and those two aspects should lead to an Under 2.5 Goals punt here. Brave souls might like the Under 1.5 bet too.

Cambridge have scored just 19 goals in their 22 away games this term losing 13 while Burton have kept clean sheets in two of their last three. The Brewers are fifth from bottom and level on points (43) with Bristol Rovers and survival is still in their own hands.

Burton boss Gary Bowyer has got Jón Dadi Bödvarsson and Fabio Tavares back after substitute appearances on Monday and those two could be big players in the final two games while Rumarn Burrell poses a threat for the hosts on the counter and Burton might have enough to take a win, but it's hard to see three goals from the pair in the game.

KEY OPTA STAT: Cambridge have won just two of their last 11 league games (D3 L6), though both victories in this period have come away from home.

Leg 3: Wrexham v Charlton Athletic, Saturday 17:30: Back The Draw @ 11/5

Wrexhan's unbeaten run of eight includes three draws and that could be the way to go with Saturday's live Sky game at 17:30, as a win for Charlton who are four points behind the Dragons with two to play would give them a shot at automatic.

It's a massive game for both and a cracker for Saturday evening, but in short, it's a match Wrexham dare not lose.

The hosts have lost just two of their 22 home league games this season (W15 D5), though their last home defeat came against a side from London in a 2-1 loss to Leyton Orient in February, but 33% of in that run have finished all square and Charlton are a defensively stronger team at home.

The fires have been stoked by Nathan Jones ahead of Saturday's fixture at Stok Cae Ras saying: "It's a bumper game, we have to go to the circus and see what we can get."

Wrexham were denied and frustrated by Bristol Rovers on Good Friday in a 1-1, but Phil Parkinson's side did play with more freedom on the Monday with a 1-2 win at Blackpool, but have lost just one of their last eight league games against Charlton Athletic (W3 D4), with this exact fixture being played for the first time since September 1981 and a 1-0 win for the Welsh side.

The draw at 11/5 looks the play and I can see this being a 0-0 or 1-1.

KEY OPTA STAT: Charlton have failed to win any of their last seven league games against sides from Wales (D4 L3), since a 2-1 victory over Cardiff City in March 2015.

League Two

Leg 1: Doncaster Rovers v Bradford City, Saturday 12:30: Back The Draw @ 23/10

Any one of four can win the League Two title with two games to play and Port Vale have let in Doncaster who now hold pole position at the top and can take a giant leap towards the title if they beat fellow challengers Bradford.

The Bantams have wobbled at precisely the wrong time with just one win in their last six and had the agony of conceding a 90th minute equaliser at Chesterfield on Monday in a 3-3 draw. For the majority of the game Bradford were terrific at Chesterfield and created plenty of big chances, but it has to be a worry conceding three for a defence that has been so good (at home) for most of the season.

In big games I tend to lean towards the draw and Doncaster's home record of W11 D7 backs up that hunch, with Grant McCann's team drawing five of their last nine.

Bradford have won just two of their last seven away league games in which they've scored the opening goal (D4 L1). Prior to that and since the start of last season, they'd won 19 of the 22 matches they'd netted the opener in on the road (D3) and that indicates a wobble for me and defensively will have to improve on their xG metric from the two games at the weekend giving up 1.59xA at Chesterfield which was higher than their seasonal xA of 1.3.

KEY OPAT STAT: Doncaster are unbeaten across their last nine league games (W4 D5), winning each of their last two 3-0. It's the Yorkshire side's longest run without defeat in the same season since April last year.

Leg 2: MK Dons v Grimsby Town, Saturday 15:00: Back Grimsby to win @ 6/5

I will carry on opposing the MK Dons and the prices with the Sportsbook indicate the layers are of that opinion with Grimsby as the 6/5 favourites for Saturday in Buckinghamshire.

The Dons are at least safe reaching 50 points and the new managerial announcement tool me by surprise with Paul Warne named recently, and while Warne is a fine manager with a superb pedigree and known for building team cultures, he isn't the passing and possession sort of manager that the Dons have grown accustomed to in recent years.

Warne's test comes next season, and whether he can galvanise a pretty shoddy outfit for two games is open to question, I will take Grimsby, as they have the second best amount of away victories from the top seven sides with 10 on the road and still are in the playoff hunt.

MK Dons have lost four of their last six home league games (W1 D1), failing to score in four of those matches, and while Warne is an upgrade, those stats are damning and when Grimsby get it right with their possession game and pass and move, they can be a match for most.

KEY OPTA STAT: Grimsby Town have only lost one of their last eight away league games (W4 D3), with each of the last two such matches finishing 2-2.

Leg 3: AFC Wimbledon v Port Vale, Saturday 12:30: Back The Draw @ 11/5

We're dealing with all the League Two big boys here for Saturday, and if Walsall or Bradford slip up, the door could still be open for that final automatic spot for Wimbledon.

Johnnie Jackson would like an easier game to do so than Port Vale, but the Valiants only picked up a point from their two Easter matches and alarmingly conceded three at Carlisle on Friday - a result that scuppered my League Two treble with two out of three, and Vale were the shortest of the lot at 6/5.

The hosts have lost just two of their last 14 home league games (W8 D4), though they've won just one of their last four on home soil (D2 L1).

Wimbledon's home defence is second-best in the league with only Bradford (13) conceding fewer, and with all four of their matches home and away hitting the Under 2.5 Goals marker (two draws in that run), I am playing the Dons' defence to stand up here to maintain their defensive record, after all, their xA at home of just 1.00 is excellent.