Saturday League One and & League Two Tips: Imps and goals at 4/1 looks a bet worth taking | OneFootball

League One

Mansfield Town v Rotherham, Saturday 15:00: Back Mansfield to win @ 10/11

Mansfield manager Nigel Clough insisted his side are "nearly there" and after a dogged 1-1 with pace-setting Stevenage, the Stags look a fair bet this weekend at a shade of odds-on.

The hosts have failed to score in just one home game so far - the 0-1 versus Harrogate, but they actually played rather well in the 90 minutes and certainly didn't deserve to lose.

Stevenage were very difficult to break down, but Rotherham will be less so, and with Joe Gardner getting back to fitness and the goal versus Stevenage, Clough's side can keep up their good home record here.

Peterborough United v Lincoln City, Saturday 15:00: Back Lincoln to win and Under 2.5 Goals @ 4/1

Pesky Peterborough. A side that hadn't won a game all season decided to break the trend against Plymouth last weekend, but I am no rush for the follow up victory against Lincoln, and the visitors are the shorter of the pair on the Sportsbook.

Lincoln were excellent against Chelsea in the midweek EFL Cup, a performance described as "top drawer" by head coach Michael Skubala.

The key to the Imps' performance is their fast starts and how aggressive they are in the front press. They are also happy to give up the ball with away performances and wins at Burton and Northampton (both 0-1) saw them have just 39% and 35% possession.

They had just 26% on the road at Bolton, and almost won the game, but conceded on 90 minutes in a 1-1, and they defended superbly. That sort of performance can lead us to the 4/1 price here as Posh's xG metric at home is just 1.08.

Bradford look a a fairly generous price on Saturday at 10/11 and considering they've won all four matches at home thus far, I would have them a little shorter in the market here.

They are averaging 2.22 goals per home match, have a home xG of 1.64 and xA of 1.22 and have failed to score just once from 13 matches in all competitions.

With 3-1 wins against Huddersfield and Cardiff, Blackpool on the face of it are not up to those two and with Antoni Sarcevic proving such an influence on the Bantams with his three goals already, I like Bradford as one of the bets of the weekend.

Graham Alexander tinkered with the formation a little at Huddersfield and their press was improved and with several flowing moves the players seem to have a good connection, led by Sarcevic.

League Two

Accrington Stanley v Walsall, Saturday 15:00: Back Walsall to win @ 7/5

Walsall are two points off leaders Gillingham and earned a thumping 4-2 home success last weekend against an improved Tranmere with a lot to like about the display from Mat Sadler's men.

They had a lot of joy down the flanks last weekend and found the space out wide to cause Tranmere a lot of problems, and once again in the EFL, a team with little possession enjoying the best result (they had just 33% against Rovers).

Accrington's surprising win at MK Dons last weekend was a real coupon buster, but their games at home have been low-scoring affairs with all three Under 2.5 Goals and just two scored for John Doolan's side.

The hosts do possess a home xA metric of 0.97, so I am expecting a tight game with Accrington's three low-scoring games thus far at home, but Walsall have enough in terms of a goal threat to take this.

Oldham Athletic v Barnet, Saturday 12:30: Back Oldham to win @ 13/8

Barnet are becoming a maddening team. Their inconsistencies are making them a difficult punting option as they have produced their two best performances of the season off the back of losses.

They beat Swindon 0-2 last month and triumphed 1-2 at Crewe - a great result as the Alex had started superbly.

Last weekend they produced their best home performance of the season too - beating Grimsby 3-0, but you have to wonder why it's taking the Bees that long to gain their first home victory of the campaign.

Barnet got the overloads right and it was the first time Dean Brennan had gone with two up front on Saturday, but it's their inconsistent nature that leads me to go with Oldham, who have conceded just four in four at home and have won all of their last three games home and away with three clean sheets.

It's the return of The Dack. Two goals from the forward last Saturday at Newport (and one from the spot) sae Gillingham cement their position at the top of the table under Gareth Ainsworth.

Ainsworth's tactics have faltered in higher leagues, but his methods are very successful at this sort of level and Gillingham are still unbeaten and have 21 points at the top of the table.

Dack's brace took his tally to just three for the season, but he's fit and playing, and starting.

Harrogate have conceded three at Swindon and two at Bromley and the xG numbers are a mismatch here: with the hosts at 1.38 for and 0.97 against on their metrics with the visitors 0.78 for and a massive 1.97 against on the road. Dack surely has to have a chance or two on Saturday?

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