Scotland v Greece: Back goals in Hampden clash | OneFootball

Scotland and Greece are battling for World Cup qualification

Scotland and Greece both know a win can represent a huge step towards the World Cup, and Kevin Hatchard expects goals in Glasgow...

Scotland v Greece Thursday 09 October, 19:45Live on BBC Two

Scotland facing spectres of the recent past

Scotland have made a solid start to their World Cup qualifying campaign. They dug in for a goalless draw against Denmark at Copenhagen's Parken Stadium, and then won 2-0 against Belarus in Hungary. Having twice qualified for the finals of the European Championship, Steve Clarke is looking to deliver what Scottish Football Association chief executive Ian Maxwell calls the final piece of the puzzle.

However, Scotland have a disappointing and fresh memory of facing Greece in a big game. Leading 1-0 from the first leg of their Nations League relegation clash with the Ethniki, Scotland crumbled to a 3-0 defeat at Hampden Park, and were therefore relegated to League B.

The game has a statistical significance for Clarke, as it'll be his 71st in charge of Scotland, drawing him level with the all-time leader Craig Brown. A win on Thursday and another at home to Belarus would put Clarke's side in a strong position, but it's worth noting that only the group winners will qualify automatically for next year's World Cup finals, so the margin for error in this international break is small.

Angus Gunn is likely to get the nod in goal despite being sidelined by Nottingham Forest. In-form forwards Oliver Burke (Union Berlin) and Lawrence Shankland (Hearts) have been omitted from the squad entirely, so the striking options are Che Adams, George Hirst and Lyndon Dykes.

Improving Greece have shown they travel well

When you've managed an emotional and eye-catching win over England at Wembley, and you follow that up with a storming victory at Hampden against Scotland, you know good things are happening. Greece coach Ivan Jovanovic has won nine of his 12 games in charge, and the team has been promoted to the top division of the Nations League.

However, the hype train was well and truly derailed in Greece's last qualifier, as they were smashed 3-0 at home by a rampant Denmark. The Danes could have been two or three goals to the good by the time they finally opened the scoring, and the Greeks didn't have an effort on target until the 79th minute. It was a truly dismal display, and Jovanovic knows the next few days (Greece visit Denmark on the 12th) could define whether Greece can qualify for the World Cup.

The most alarming thing about the Denmark defeat was the lack of cutting edge. Greece went into that game having scored at least three goals in their previous four internationals, including a 5-1 drubbing of Belarus, a match that featured five different Greek scorers.

Olympiakos defender Panagiotis Retsos has been ruled out by a groin injury, so the talented but inconsistent Konstantinos Koulierakis will probably partner West Ham's Konstantinos Mavropanos at centre-back. The vastly experienced Tasos Bakasetas hopes to be recalled in midfield, while the in-form Vangelis Pavlidis (he has scored five league goals for Benfica) hopes to start up front.

Both Teams To Score the value play at odds-against

There's so little margin for error in these qualifiers, and after their Danish debacle, Greece can't really afford to sit back here. They'll be boosted by what they did to Scotland on their last visit, while Scotland know their home games could be the key to qualification.

Scotland have scored in nine of their last 12 internationals, while Greece have found the net in 11 of their last 14. I just think BTTS is overpriced at 2.04 on the Betfair Exchange.

Dangerous duo can both hit the target

We can use the Sportsbook's Bet Builder to double up Scotland's talismanic midfielder Scott McTominay and Greek sharp-shooter Vangelis Pavlidis in the shot on target market. We only need each of them to hit the target once, and it will pay out at 13/10.

McTominay was a goal machine for Napoli in the successful title run-in last term, and if you look at his games for club and country since the start of the season, the ex-Manchester United box crasher has had a shot on target in six of his ten games. For Scotland, he has had an effort on target in nine of his last ten competitive matches.

Pavlidis scored a match-winning brace for Greece at Wembley, has six competitive goals for Benfica already and has hit the target in five of his last nine competitive starts for his country.

Now read Paul Higham's best bets for Thursday night's qualifiers

Recommended bets

Back Both Teams To Score @ 2.04

Back McTominay and Pavlidis to each have a shot on target @ 13/10