Serie A preview: AC Milan vs. Inter – Team news, opposition insight, stats and prediction | OneFootball

Following the disappointment in the Champions League, AC Milan will be looking to respond with a statement in the Derby della Madonnina against Inter. In fact, they could make it three out of three wins against the Nerazzurri this season.

The defeat to Dinamo Zagreb mid-week seemingly sparked a reaction on the transfer market, with Santiago Gimenez now secured, and the likes of Davide Calabria and Alvaro Morata are set to leave. For now, however, the team will have to be fully focused on the derby.

Speaking to the media at his press conference, Conceicao admitted that he’s been annoyed by ‘lies’ in the media in recent weeks. However, he made it clear that the players must focus solely on the game, which is difficult to achieve.

Game date: Sunday, February 2 Kick-off time: 18:00 (CET) Venue: San Siro Referee: Daniele Chiffi VAR: Di Paolo)

Team news

The last few days, as alluded to above, have been rather hectic as many players have been linked with departures. It has resulted in great uncertainty with regard to the squad for Sunday’s clash, seeing as Calabria and Morata have been confirmed on the outgoing front.

Who will even start in the derby? This has been the main question of the Milan fans in recent days but as the situation has calmed down a little, we now seemingly have an answer to this. Alessandro Florenzi, Ruben Loftus-Cheek and Emerson Royal are still injured, it should be noted, while Youssouf Fofana is suspended.

In defence, one of Malick Thiaw and Matteo Gabbia should recover in time for the game, with the Italian being the most likely. However, as Tomori reportedly has rejected Spurs, he’s now the primary candidate to partner up with Strahinja Pavlovic in the heart of the defence.

Kyle Walker is expected to make his debut for the team, starting at right-back, and he certainly knows a thing or two about playing a high-stakes derby. His experience will likely come in very handy, the only worry is his physical condition (although indications from Milanello have been positive).

Photo by AC Milan

Further up the pitch, replacing Fofana will be a tough one for Conceicao, even if the choice is pretty obvious: Ismael Bennacer. Yunus Musah will also get a chance for revenge after the horrorshow against Dinamo Zagreb, while Tijjani Reijnders will complete the midfield.

Tammy Abraham should be the starting striker, with Morata heading for Galatasaray, and Gimenez should be watching on in the stands. The Englishman has more than one point to prove after missing several chances this season. What’s clear is that this game, he cannot afford to miss.

Overall, it’s pretty much what you would expect with all the chaos of the January mercato ongoing. The team is certainly strong enough to beat Inter but as we have seen far too many times this season, they could easily collapse as well.

Probable Milan XI (4-3-3): Maignan; Walker, Tomori, Pavlovic, Hernandez; Musah, Bennacer, Reijnders; Pulisic, Abraham, Leao.

The opponents

Following some initial doubts, with two draws and the defeat to Milan in the first five games, Inter have certainly picked themselves back up and are now flying. They are unbeaten in their last 16 league games and have dropped points in just three of these, which says a lot.

In the Champions League, Simone Inzaghi’s men managed to secure a top-eight finish (4th) after losing just one game (6W, 1D). Having two fewer games to play will certainly help them in the Scudetto race, just three points behind league leaders Napoli with one game in hand.

Tomorrow’s game will undoubtedly be an opportunity for revenge as well, having lost the reverse fixture and the Supercoppa Italiana final against Milan. Indeed, the derby dominance has completely shifted this season after years of great success for the Nerazzurri.

Photo by Maurizio Lagana/Getty Images

“We all know what the derby represents, it will be full of pitfalls because Milan are a great team with a lot of quality. We will need a great Inter, aggressive and determined. For us, it is very important” Inzaghi said during his press conference today.

Francesco Acerbi and Hakan Calhanoglu were two doubts for this game due to injuries, but both have recovered and will be available tomorrow (although perhaps not from start). The Turkish international is the important one to recover, as there is no doubt that Inzaghi prefers him over Kristjan Asllani.

Lautaro Martinez has been in red-hot form lately, scoring in his last three league games and fresh off a hat-trick against Monaco mid-week. He did find the back of the net in the Supercoppa Italiana final, but not the reverse fixture so tomorrow is his chance to get a league derby goal.

Probable Inter XI (3-5-2): Sommer; Pavard, de Vrij, Bastoni; Dumfries, Barella, Calhanoglu/Asllani, Mkhitaryan; Thuram, Lautaro Martinez.

Head to head

Milan and Inter have faced each other 225 times in their history, with 73 wins for the Rossoneri, 85 for Inter and 67 draws. The Nerazzurri have a slight advantage, in other words, but it’s also clear that this fixture tends to be a close one.

Looking at the present, however, Inter have gone from a dominant period to losing the last two derbies in all competitions. Milan could make it three consecutive wins against their rivals for the first time since 2011, when they were coached by Max Allegri.

The last time Milan were the designated home side, on the other hand, wasn’t as fun for the Rossoneri fans as Inter clinched the second star. Francesco Acerbi and Marcus Thuram scores the goals for the Nerazzurri, while Fikayo Tomori got a consolation goal.

Key facts and stats

➤ AC Milan have won the last two Milan derbies against Inter across all competitions, as many as in the previous 13 (D2, L9). The Rossoneri could win three games in a row against the Nerazzurri for the first time since 2011 under Massimiliano Allegri.

➤ Inter have won 70 matches and scored 259 goals in Serie A against AC Milan, more than any other side in the competition. On the other hand, the Nerazzurri have drawn 56 games against the Rossoneri, more than against any other opponent in the Italian top-flight.

➤ Across the last seven Milan derbies in Serie A (since Simone Inzaghi has been on the Nerazzurri’s bench), the score between Inter and AC Milan is three wins apiece and one draw. In this period, the Rossoneri have always conceded in the first half, with the last time the Nerazzurri failed to score before half-time coming in February 2020.

➤ Inter have kept a clean sheet in their last seven away games in Serie A, with an aggregate score of 23-0. Only AC Milan (eight between November 1993 and March 1994) have achieved more clean sheets in a row away from home in the history of the competition.

➤ Considering games between the top eight current sides in the Serie A table, AC Milan have collected only five points (W1 D2 L4), fewer than any other side. However, their sole such success came against Inter in the reverse fixture.

➤ Inter have scored 55 goals in Serie A this season; the only times the Nerazzurri have netted more after the first 22 games in the Italian top-flight were in 1949-50 (64), 1950-51 (59) and 1960-61 (56).

➤ Sérgio Conceição (41 Serie A appearances with Inter, between 2001 and 2003) can become the second AC Milan manager in the last 35 years to win his first two Milan derbies against the Nerazzurri across all competitions, after Massimiliano Allegri between 2010 and 2011.

➤ Tijjani Reijnders is the central midfielder with the most goals in the current Serie A season (six). Overall, he has scored nine goals with AC Milan in the competition and could become the fifth Dutch player to score at least 10 goals with the Rossoneri in the Italian top-flight, after Marco van Basten (90), Clarence Seedorf (47), Ruud Gullit (38) and Frank Rijkaard (16).

➤ Denzel Dumfries has scored in each of his last three Serie A appearances; only one defender has found the net in four games in a row in the competition in the three-points for a win era: Christian Terlizzi, with Palermo in September 2005.

➤ Lautaro Martínez has scored nine goals in Serie A this term and could become the sixth player to score 10+ goals with Inter in six Serie A different seasons, after Giuseppe Meazza (9), Benito Lorenzi (9), Alessandro Altobelli (8), Roberto Boninsegna (6) and Christian Vieri (6). With a goal, he will also become the third Nerazzurri player with at least 10 against Milan in all competitions, after Giuseppe Meazza (12) and Stefano Nyers (11).

Ones to watch

The new signing Kyle Walker will be very interesting to see from start tomorrow, making his debut in one of the most important games for the Rossoneri. He knows what it takes to play in big games, that’s for sure, and he has beaten Inter before.

Ismael Bennacer is another one that Milan fans should keep a close eye on tomorrow. With Youssoiuf Fofana suspended, this is the Algerian’s big chance to prove that he has recovered both fitness and quality, following a series of injuries.

Photo by Giuseppe Cottini/AC Milan via Getty Images

As for Inter, Stefan de Vrij has been criticised in the past for his derby performances and it remains to be seen how he will cope tomorrow. Francesco Acerbi is undoubtedly a better centre-back, but the Dutchman – on a good day – can still be decisive,

It would be strange not to mention Lautaro Martinez here as well. He has been in tremendous form lately and Milan will have to keep him at bay. It won’t be easy, in fact it will probably be impossible, but at least they can limit his good angles and shooting opportunities.

Prediction

The brain says a win for Inter, considering how Milan have performed lately, but that seemed like the logical answer before the Supercoppa final as well. Anything can happen in the derby, that has been well established at this point, and Conceicao’s men will fancy themselves to bag another derby win.

While Milan obviously need the win for the standings, the feeling is that there is more pressure on Inter. It could be their last chance to bag a derby win this season, depending on the outcome in the cups, and either way three consecutive derby defeats is not something they want.

Milan 1-1 Inter